Low Canadian content for NHL playoffs spells a sad exit for CBC, TSN

When television sports executives sleep -- and contrary to popular belief, they do -- here's what they like to dream about: All seven Canadian teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs, with Toronto and Vancouver reaching the final and producing record ratings and the mega-profits that come with them.

What they fear most -- or at least what they fear most outside of losing the national NHL package to Rogers -- is this: no Canadian teams making the playoffs, the entire country losing interest and profits severely diminished.

Unfortunately for CBC and TSN, their final season as proprietors of nationally televised TV hockey packages is shaping up pretty much like the latter scenario. Barring a phenomenal finish by the Toronto Maple Leafs, there will be only one Canadian team still skating when the NHL begins its annual two-month tournament.

Needless to say, this is not the way they wanted to go out.

For CBC, which will present the Hockey Night In Canada package in a form of indentured servitude to Rogers next season, this year's playoff lineup will likely produce some of the lowest Stanley Cup ratings it has seen in some time. To be fair, low Stanley Cup ratings are still better than pretty much everything else this country has to offer and there won't be any red ink staining the CBC's books as a result. But it's not what it could have been.

Evidence of what might have been is provided by last year's first-round series between the Leafs and Bruins. The seven-game series averaged 3.5 million viewers per game, a first-round record for Canadian TV. The final game alone produced an average audience of 5.1 million viewers -- another first-round record.

Those numbers are amazing enough, but even more revealing is the fact that CBC averaged 2 million viewers for the entire playoffs -- including the final. And that was with four Canadian teams involved.

There's little doubt that had the Leafs survived, CBC would have cashed in big time.

Canadian teams bring huge audiences with them as casual hockey fans get caught up in the excitement. If the only Canadian team assured of a playoff spot, the Montreal Canadiens, makes it to the final, they could produce some big audiences. It's not a likely scenario, but anything could happen. CBC, for one, is hoping it does.

The playoffs won't be a financial disaster regardless of how far the Canadiens go -- and certainly not if the Leafs somehow manage to squeak in. But there will be lost opportunities to enhance profits.

The playoffs ad inventory usually sells out in advance of the final, with some of the highest rates in the business. But where broadcasters can really cash in is with the ads they hold back in hopes they can charge premium rates if audience numbers start to hit the heights. A Boston-St. Louis final isn't likely to give them that opportunity -- especially if the Canadian team or teams exit early.

Casual fans tend to lose interest once their home team is gone and the earlier Canadian teams go out, the lower the ratings for subsequent series will be.

TSN is in a similarly leaking boat. It gets games in the first three rounds -- but CBC gets first choice. On the rare occasions when several Canadian teams make the playoffs, TSN gets some of their games and the ratings that come with them.

But with only one team in the tournament, it's not going to get any this year.

Like CBC, it would have preferred a more gentle exit.