Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings: Puck Daddy’s NHL Playoff Preview

(The 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us. The good news for NBC: There are no Canadian teams to bring down the ratings. The bad news for Sportnet: There are no Canadian teams to bring up the ratings. Such is life. Who wins the Cup? Read our insightful and informative playoff previews!)

How’d They Get Here?

After battling with the Florida Panthers for the Atlantic Division crown, the Lightning settled into the division’s No. 2 seed all while watching players drop like flies due to injury.

They’ll be without Anton Stralman and Steven Stamkos for the foreseeable future, two huge losses at both ends of the ice. Tyler Johnson was banged up following a hit on Saturday night, but he’s been on the ice this week and looks to be good to go for Game 1.

In their first season under Jeff Blashill, the playoff streak nearly ended for the Red Wings, but with some help from the Boston Bruins, Detroit was able to make it 25 straight seasons with postseason hockey.

While the Zetterbergs and Datsyuks and Kronwalls helped lead the way like many times before, the Red Wings once again were boosted by youth. Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist and rookie star Dylan Larkin were all valuable contributors.

Their Last Playoff Meeting

2015. These two teams will meet in Round 1 for the second straight year. Last time around, Detroit grabbed a 3-2 series lead before the Lightning won the final two games to begin their march to the Stanley Cup Final.

Schedule

Wed 4/13, 7pm: DET @ TBL | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Fri 4/15, 7pm: DET @ TBL | CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Sun 4/17, 7pm: TBL @ DET | CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Tue 4/19, 7pm: TBL @ DET | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Thu 4/21, TBD:  DET @ TBL | TBD
*Sun 4/24, TBD:  TBL @ DET | TBD
*Tue 4/26, TBD:  DET @ TBL | TBD

Offense

When fully healthy, the Lightning sport one of the NHL’s best offenses, but not having Stamkos around will hurt. At one point, head coach Jon Cooper had to break up the Triplets line of Johnson (38 points), Nikita Kucherov (30 goals) and Ondrej Palat (40 points) due to injuries in the lineup. Still, Tampa was able to finish with a pair of 30-goal scorers and seven other players who hit double digits.

The Triplets will be back together for the postseason, where they vaulted into the spotlight a year ago. Jonathan Drouin is back in the NHL and scored in two games after being recalled at end the regular season. A frequent scratch last postseason, he’ll be need to help carry the offensive load.

The Lightning received production from down their lineup as well, with Ryan Callahan (10 goals), Vladimir Namestinkov (35 points) and Brian Boyle (13 goals) each recording over 20 points. Top to bottom, their forward group also posted positive possession numbers, per Corsica.

Of the 16 playoff teams, Detroit scored the fewest during the regular season (209). Seven non-playoff teams scored more. They were led by Larkin who played his way into the Calder Trophy conversation with 23 goals and 45 points. He, along with Tatar (21 goals), Justin Abdelkader (19 goals) and Gustav Nyquist (17 goals) are the future of the franchise. Meanwhile, the old guard of Zetterberg (50 points) and Datsyuk (49 points) did their part despite getting another year older.

This Red Wings playoff run will have the looming departure of Datsyuk hanging over it. The 37-year-old will likely head back to Russia next season family reasons, leaving one year left on his contract. Players shouldn’t need much motivation for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but sending the “Magic Man” off with one last memorable ride will certainly be on the minds of Detroit’s players.

Advantage: Lightning

Defense

The Lightning sported one of the league’s stingiest defenses allowing only 198 goals during the regular season. A big part of that was the pairing of Stralman and Victor Hedman, who each played over 20 minutes a night and were dominant possession players with over 54 percent Corsi numbers, per Corsica.

Stralman’s absence has opened the door for Matt Carle on the top pairing. Beyond that, Braydon Coburn and Jason Garrison are two veterans who will see a lot of penalty kill time. Andrej Sustr (21 points) and Nikita Nesterov (14:53 TOI) were each even possession players coming off their first Stanley Cup playoff experiences.

Ben Bishop is in the mix for the Vezina Trophy after posting a .931 even strength save percentage and six shutouts during the regular season. He played a huge role in Tampa’s run last spring and will need to be even more valuable this year in the absence of Stralman.

Detroit’s defense was led by Mike Green’s seven goals and 35 points, his lowest totals in a non-lockout year since 2011-12 when he missed 50 games. He was also one of four positive possession blue liners for the Red Wings.

Danny DeKeyser was right behind Green with eight goals and his partner, Kyle Quincey, wasn’t much for offense (4 goals, 11 points), but did average nearly 20 minutes a night. Not an ideal top pairing, but this is what the Red Wings have to work with.

Niklas Kronwall was banged up toward the end of the season but still finished with the highest average time on-ice (22 minutes) and 26 points. He’s been paired with rookie Alexei Marchenko, who put up 11 points in nearly 17 minutes a night and posted a 51 percent Corsi number, per Corsica.

Jimmy Howard reclaimed his starting job after losing it to Petr Mrazek during the regular season. He was outstanding in Detroit’s final handful of games to help clinch a playoff berth. Mrazek tailed off during the second half after he was being talked up as a Vezina hopeful. One of those two will need to be the MVP for this team and to give them a shot at advancing.

Advantage: Lightning

Special Teams

It’s hard to believe with all the talent that Tampa’s power play was very poor this season. The Lightning finished tied for the third-worst success rate in the NHL at 15.8 percent. They were, however, much better at Amalie Arena (20.7 percent) than away from home (10.1 percent) with the extra man. The unit only mustered 44 goals on 279 total opportunities, which was the third most in the league. The absent Stamkos and Stralman contributed 35 combined power play points during the regular season.

Detroit’s power play finished with an 18.8 percent success rate and the home/road splits were opposite of that of Tampa’s with the Red Wings a top-10 team away from Joe Louis Arena (21.1 percent) and 26th at home (16.7 percent).

Down a man, the Lightning were better, killing off 84 percent of their power plays. Losing Drew Miller was a big blow a Detroit penalty killing unit who finished with an 81.5 percent success rate.

Advantage: Even

Coaching 

Cooper has coached a number of his Lightning players since their days in the AHL. It was a big reason why they succeeded last season. Both player and coach know what to expect from one another and while his lineup was hit with injury during the season, Cooper did enough mixing and matching to still keep his team in the hunt for a division crown.

Blashill had big shoes to fill taking over for Mike Babcock and lots of pressure to help keep Detroit’s playoff streak alive. It was a bumpy first season, but he did find a way to get the team back into the postseason, all while finding his way as an NHL head coach.

Advantage: Lightning

Five Key Questions

1. Can the Triplets rekindle their 2015 magic as a line and lead offensively yet again?

2. Will Jimmy Howard hold on to the No. 1 job with Petr Mrazek right there?

3. How big of a contributor will Dylan Larkin be after his solid rookie season?

4. How much will the absences of Stamkos and Stralman affect the Lightning?

5. Can Ben Bishop continue his Vezina calber form into the postseason?

Best Fantasy Options

1. Nikita Kucherov. If the Triplets can produce like they did in 2015, he’ll be near the top of all scorers.

2. Victor Hedman. He’ll put up points and get plenty of power play time.

3. Tomas Tatar. One of Detroit’s top scorers saw 15 of his 45 points come on the power play during the regular season.

Prediction

Lightning in seven. We’re going to get another long series between these two because one of Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek will make it so. Howard gets the first shot in Game 1. Even without Stamkos and Stralman, Tampa is a dangerous team. The rest of their banged up players are getting healthy at the right time and if they can right their power play issues in this series, it could end sooner than seven.

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