Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: 12 things about Canadiens vs. Lightning

It’s the Montreal Canadiens (50-22-10, 110 points) vs. the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-24-8, 108 points) for the Atlantic Division championship!

Here are 12 things to anticipate in this Stanley Cup Playoff series …

1. WHO IS THE UNDERDOG!?

In perhaps the most tepid controversy of the 2015 postseason, the teams have been debating over whom the real underdog is. "We're probably the only team in the playoffs with home-ice advantage that's the underdog," said Michel Therrien. The Lightning disagree, citing home ice advantage, and thus the modern day Lincoln–Douglas debates commence.

2. Home Ice

Tampa was 32-8-1 at home during the regular season and just won a Game 7 on home ice. Montreal was 26-9-6 at home during the regular season and won the first two games of Round 1 at Bell Centre. However, the Bolts have won five straight in Montreal.

3. Carey Price vs. The Lightning

Price played five games against the Lightning. He went 0-4-1 against them with a 3.47 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Cause for concern? Well, he was 1-1-2 against them in 2012-13 with a 1.42 GAA and a .956 save percentage, so maybe not. Or possibly. Who knows! That’s why it’s called a “preview.”

4. Ben Bishop vs. the Playoffs

Bishop might have had the most nervous-looking shutout in playoff history in Game 7, making little gaffes here and there that fortunately never added up to a Detroit goal. His first-round numbers were strong – 1.87 GAA, .922 save percentage – but he was inconsistent enough to make you wonder. Still, having a healthy Bishop makes this matchup enormously different than the last time these teams met.

5. Steven Stamkos

The good news is that the Tampa Bay Lightning won a series without a goal from Steven Stamkos, which is also the bad news: Stamkos actually only has three goals in his last 17 games, which came in consecutive games. Is this a funk or something more?

6. Brendan Gallagher

Gallagher is quickly becoming one of the NHL’s most effective pests, in the sense that he can piss you off at the same time he’s scoring a big goal. As A Winning Habit notes, he’s “a pest with a purpose.” There are going to be some interesting battles in front of Ben Bishop.

7. Controlling The Triplets

Tyler Johnson had six goals and his line with Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat combined for 14 points in seven games. Will they see copious amounts of P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov, or will they still get the second-pairing defensive assignment in deference to Stamkos? Speaking of which …

8. The Four D-Men

Both teams’ top defensive pairings have the potential to control the series. Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman are possession monsters are active offensively; Hedman in particular is back to his Norris Trophy-worthy form from earlier in the season. Subban and Markov play over 25 minutes a game. Subban leads the Habs in playoff scoring. Markov, however, needs a better series than what he had against Ottawa.

9. Cooper vs. Therrien

Two coaches that aren’t afraid of making adjustments and shaking up their lineups battle in the semifinals. One of the more underreported stories of what might have been Mike Babcock’s last playoff series for the Detroit Red Wings? That Jon Cooper outcoached him.

10. Power Outtages

The Canadiens’ power play went 1-for-20 in the first round against an Ottawa Senators PK that was 11th in the NHL during the regular season. The Habs’ power play has pretty much sucked all season (16.5 percent conversion rate) but so did those of Minnesota and Anaheim; yet those two are Nos. 1 and 2 in the postseason now. Montreal has to take advantage on the man advantage.

Tampa Bay was only slightly better: 2-for-30, although how much of that is due to Stamkos’s slump is a point of contention.

11. Goal Horns

Tampa Bay

Montreal

In person, the Canadiens one wins hands-down.

12. Prediction 

Bolts in six. The Canadiens gave up 33 shots per game against Ottawa, and if that happens again that’s asking a lot from Carey Price against a really solid offensive team. Simply put, I don’t trust Montreal’s offense and expect a bounce-back series from Bishop. Oh, and Stamkos scores in Game 1.