Ryan Kesler vs. Jonathan Toews makes everyone happier (Trending Topics)

There was no shortage of coverage for the return of Ryan Kesler's team playing Jonathan Toews's team in the postseason, and what that meant for their personal rivalry. In short, these are two players who do not like each other. But beyond the war of words both through the media and on the ice, the Kesler/Toews matchup presents a series of rather interesting circumstances for all involved. 

One of the big things that was going to be most interesting for me in this series was seeing how Joel Quenneville and Bruce Boudreau matched lines against each other. These are two teams with high-quality first and second lines, and each has the ability to do significant damage to opponents.

Anaheim can roll Maroon/Getzlaf/Perry against anyone in the league and feel pretty good about its chances, and the Beleskey/Kesler/Silfverberg second unit has been paying dividends basically all postseason. Likewise, Chicago's Saad/Toews/Hossa and Bickell/Richards/Kane groups are dangerous at all times. So who was going to match up against whom?

In theory, the coaches — and really, in Games 1 and 2 it was and is Boudreau's call since he has last change — could have gone power-versus-power and let things happen between the Getzlaf and Toews lines, but given the latter's prowess in not only attacking well but defending exceptionally, this was probably not a viable option, regardless of how much the Ducks' top line has been scoring in these playoffs. It would have made sense for Kesler and Co. to take a run at the Kane line, though, given that the Kane line can score on anyone.

But fortunately for the Don Kings in the hockey universe, the acrimony of Kesler vs. Toews was allowed to reign supreme. Game 1 saw these two lines clash time and again, with Kesler playing about 11 of his 14 minutes against Chicago's top line. It did not go well for Toews (minus-4 shot attempts, and on the ice for a goal against at 5-on-5). Meanwhile, Boudreau did a good job of keeping Getzlaf and Perry away from anyone in particular, and while they didn't score — it happens to the best of 'em — they also didn't concede, and out-chanced the opponents. That's basically all you can ask.

Meanwhile, the job of defending Kane fell mostly to the very underrated checking line of Andrew Cogliano, Nate Thompson, and Kyle Palmieri, but with time against Anaheim's top line mixed in. Kane had a rougher night than Toews, at minus-6 corsi and minus-1 goal differential, but where he really got smoked was in shot quality. Of the 13 shots put on goal while Kane was on the ice in Game 1, only three were from Chicago sticks. Which is a problem, because if Kane's not shooting (and his one shot in the game indicates a problem there) then that's an issue.

So things certainly worked out for Boudreau in Game 1, not only because his team picked up a W getting scoring mostly from the third and fourth lines — a goalscorers' list from a Chicago/Anaheim game is, you'd think, typically unlikely to feature the names Lindholm, Palmieri, Richards, Thompson, and Silfverberg exclusively — but because his shrewd deployment paid off. But historically, that's probably something that should have been expected.

One of the things almost anyone has to do is accept that the Toews line is going to out-possess them more often than not, and probably outscore them as well. This hasn't been the case in Getzlaf's career because he has, to this point, shot nearly 16 percent at 5-on-5 with Toews on the ice; not something that's likely to be sustained, given we're talking about fewer than 120 minutes in their regular-season careers. So to “hide” Getzlaf's line, to the extent that your top line can be hidden, from Toews seems a judicious move. Especially because, if you can get him against the Kane line, he's likely to dominate. (These numbers only go back to 2007-08, the first year most sites began keeping possession stats.)

Now, we're talking about an even bigger shooting percentage for Getzlaf, but in their careers, Kane concedes a higher shooting percentage than Toews (as you might expect given their respective defensive acumen: it's 8.15 percent for Toews, and 8.7 percent for Kane). But it's hard to argue the goals against number dropping more than 18 percent. And given the decline in scoring numbers when they're facing the other matchups Chicago has to offer, going with this matchup route — Getzlaf vs. Kane/anyone but Toews — seems wise.

Put another way: Getzlaf outscores everyone on Chicago, but he outscores Kane and anyone but Jonathan Toews most of all.

This isn't true when it comes to possession, of course, but you have to keep in mind that Anaheim, up until this season, has always been a fairly poor possession team even with the strength of this top line. Getzlaf has always been outpossessed by Kane and Toews, and held a marginal edge over everyone else, but when the situations are reversed, and those two stars for Chicago go up against anyone on Anaheim, they dominate possession. You just have to accept that as course of fact in most cases, even if the Ducks have become a lot better in that regard this year.

So, okay, it falls to Kesler to cover Toews. Good for all involved from an entertainment standpoint, that's for sure. But is it smart for Boudreau to go with this matchup given that Kesler's team, historically, gets eliminated by Chicago, and Toews, historically, runs riot in those series? In short, while he is picking his poison, he's choosing the one that lasts longest so that he can potentially find an antidote.

The below graph shows Toews versus Kesler, Toews versus Kesler's team when Kesler isn't on the ice, and Toews versus everyone in his career:

Toews crushes everyone because he's Toews, but the possession disparity is so great in terms of the ability of Chicago's No. 1 to limit Kesler's teams' attack that having anyone but him on the ice kills you for 15 minutes a game or so. Attempting fewer than 43 shots per 60 minutes is, approximately, right between what Buffalo and New Jersey — the two worst shot-attempting teams in the league — did this year.

Kesler's teams always concede a ton of attempts to Toews, but at least they give themselves a fighting chance to score themselves when he's on. About 52.5 attempts per 60 is a little less than what Detroit did this season; not great, but certainly not horrific.

The reason it benefits Toews to play against Kesler is because he's still dominant, and he scores 3.87 goals per 60 with Kesler on the ice in the past several seasons. But it benefits Anaheim because things could actually be worse than that if the bounces went against them.

Meanwhile, Getzlaf's line benefits because it's away from Chicago's stars and those three guys more likely to outscore Chicago's third and fourth lines. And Kane benefits because the likelihood that Nate Thompson keeps a lid on him the whole series is basically nil. While we have very little statistical basis for saying that — they've only played about 18:30 against each other in their careers, including Game 1 — reason dictates that there isn't a third-line center, no matter how good at containment he is, who can put Kane in a sleeper hold for a whole series.

And of course, the people watching the games benefit because this still looks like it's going to be an amazing series.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.