NCAA Hockey 101: North Dakota looks scary, but can it last?

Last season, North Dakota made it all the way to the Frozen Four, largely behind the performance of Hobey Baker finalist Zane McIntyre.

Over the course of last season, McIntyre's frankly off-the-charts good goaltending (we're talking .929 in 41 games, but well over .930 for much of the season) was one of the few redeeming qualities for a team that otherwise struggled in possession.

When you think "North Dakota," you think of dominant teams, but it was McIntyre who kept the hopes of an otherwise just-okay team alive deep into March and beyond.

There are no such problems this time around.

When Dave Hakstol took the job with the Philadelphia Flyers, there was plenty of reason to be skeptical of North Dakota going forward. Sure, this is a program that can attract high-level recruits, but Hakstol went to the Frozen Four and won league titles at an extremely impressive rate and replicating that success isn't easy for anyone, let alone a coach like Brad Berry with plenty of experience as an assistant, but none as a head coach.

But where Hakstol struggled last year, in getting his team to hold onto the puck for the majority of the game, Berry has no such problems. They spent much of Hakstol's final ear well below 50 percent corsi-for at full strength, finishing the year a little above half but 23rd in the nation out of 59 teams. Under Berry so far, the Fight Hawks have absolutely whaled on opponents, to the tune of 56.2 percent CF.

They ended last season 29-10-3, which isn't bad at all, obviously. So far this year they're already 18-2-2 and have scored more than twice as many goals as their opponents.

So the question is: What's different?

For one thing, there's the 103.9 PDO, which is going to make anyone look good, and that's up from a still-high 102 a year ago. Now, obviously PDO is dictated far more at the college level by skill than in the NHL, but if we're acknowledging that McIntyre is one of the best college goalies in recent memory (we absolutely are acknowledging that, by the way) then we have to assume that Cam Johnson's absurd performance so far this season is perhaps not indicative of his true talent level. That's not a knock on Johnson by any means, because no one's talent level is his jaw-dropping .976(!!!!!!) at 5-on-5. In 12 appearances, he has allowed just five goals on 209 shots. McIntyre, one of the most impressive goalies in the nation, conceded 56 in 41 on 945.

Johnson just wrapped up a streak of nearly 300 minutes without allowing a goal, including four consecutive shutouts, so that's going to buoy the save percentage of a guy who only has 12 appearances so far this year. But even leaving aside the four shutouts (though it's a third of his season, so that's a bit unfair), he's still only allowed 12 goals on 152, which is good for .921 and that's still well above the NCAA average.

There's also the fact that Drake Caggiula, Brock Boeser, and Nick Schmaltz are ripping opponents apart, combining for 23 goals at 5-on-5 alone in the first 22 games. If you can count on one goal per night from your top line, just at 5-on-5 (and North Dakota draws about four power plays per game, eighth-most in the nation), everything else is going to fall into place for you. And yeah, those guys are collectively shooting 19.5 percent, which is bound to come down as the NCHC schedule really gets going and the Fighting Hawks don't play as many Wisconsins and Alabama-Huntsvilles (but still plenty of Colorado Colleges).

Nonetheless, the difference is stark, and it's because Berry has improved the team in a number of areas. Having a player like Boeser on your top line helps, but it doesn't result in this:

You can see here that Berry's teams are taking more shot attempts per game — despite leading more often — and allowing fewer. They're also allowing fewer of those shots to get through to their goaltenders. You'd like to see a larger portion of your shots attempts get on goal your own self, but if you've widened your gap to almost 10 from the previous 2.7 or so, it basically doesn't matter.

The Fighting Hawks spent last year winning on skill, mostly from one position, and not process. This year, they're winning with both.

The issue is whether it can continue. Their remaining schedule isn't exactly easy, with home dates against Omaha looming a in two weekends, and road dates at Western, Denver, and Omaha among others down the stretch as well. Again, there's going to be a point at which Johnson stops being lights-out, and we don't really know his true skill level, because he played in just two games as a freshman last year (and was awful at .765).

Further, his junior numbers don't exactly indicate he's anything resembling a .930 goalie, as McIntyre was. Being in the 915 range as a junior player isn't bad or anything, and sometimes those numbers can be deceptive, but typically if you're a great college goalie you demolished the juniors too; McIntyre did better than Johnson in more appearances over his two USHL years.

As for the high shooting percentages — the team is at 9.2 for the season so far, up from 8.5 percent, which is not an insignificant difference — I'm more inclined to believe that's sustainable because of the type of quality chances that top line alone is getting, and burying. It might come down a little bit, but if you're getting that many shots on goal at 5-on-5 alone (25.15 a night, up very slightly from 25.08 last year) you're going to be able to win on volume regardless.

Again, it's not a knock on Johnson to say he's probably not as good as McIntyre, because very few college goalies are. And again, no one is a .950-plus goalie. So that number is coming down but, again, a diminished shot volume against is likely going to make a major difference.

There's no reason to think the Fighting Hawks shouldn't be able to keep this up all year, even as the percentages regress.

Berry has answered a hell of a lot of questions about what he brings to the table, and it's only January.

A somewhat arbitrary ranking of teams which are pretty good in my opinion only (and just for right now but maybe for a little longer too?)

1. Quinnipiac (swept Princeton in a home-and-home, tied at Northeastern)

2. North Dakota (swept Alabama-Huntsville)

3. Nebraska-Omaha  (swept Arizona State)

4. Harvard (beat Ferris State, won at Minnesota)

5. Providence College (lost to Cornell, beat Boston College, lost at Brown)

6. St. Cloud (swept Arizona State)

7. Cornell (beat Providence, lost to Ohio State)

8. Michigan (swept Michigan Tech)

9. Boston University (idle)

10. UMass Lowell (beat Clarkson, lost to Robert Morris)

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist and also covers the NCAA for College Hockey News. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

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