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NCAA Hockey 101: Clash(es) of the titans and Northeastern's struggles

(Ed. Note: Ryan Lambert is our resident NCAA Hockey nut, and we decided it’s time to unleash his particular brand of whimsy on the college game every week. So NCAA HOCKEY 101 will run every Tuesday on Puck Daddy. Educate yo self.)

The good thing about conference re-alignment is that it has forced more non-conference games overall, and for the most part like ends up seeking like.

That means, for instance, that there will be more matchups between teams that aren't legitimate contenders for anything, but also a larger number of non-conference games between some of the best teams in the country. There was no shortage of the latter (and, one supposes, the former) this past weekend.

In fact, when it comes to games between nationally ranked teams, there was a huge variety of fascinating games to take in. Union took on St. Cloud, North Dakota hosted Providence, Michigan visited Lowell and BU, and Denver traveled to Duluth. And wouldn't you know it, pretty much all those matchups were deeply interesting for different reasons.

What's interesting is how many of these series were splits. In what was the biggest matchup of the weekend, only then-No. 3 North Dakota ended up taking the majority of points from its two games (a 6-1 win and a 2-2 tie). And unfortunately it seems that No. 5 Providence isn't exactly off to the hot start many projected; they were picked to win Hockey East but are only 1-2-1.

In the Friars' defense, they're injury-depleted right now, haven't played at home, and Calgary pick Jon Gillies — perhaps the most talented goaltender in the country — has a save percentage of just .882. That they're going to rebound from this slow start for a number of doesn't change the fact that it happened, and those points are going to be valuable to North Dakota come the end of the year, but it doesn't get any easier for the Friars going forward. They're in a home-and-home with BU next weekend.

Speaking of then-No. 12 BU, they swept the weekend in hosting Michigan State (1-0 win) and No. 14 Michigan (3-2 win). Jack Eichel had two points, Matt O'Connor stopped 67 of 69, and the Terriers look like they're bouncing back nicely from their nightmare season a year ago. Michigan, by the way, also pummeled No. 7 Lowell, 8-4, the night before, in what had to be one of the sloppiest games I've seen live in quite a long time. Save percentage in that one between three goaltenders was a combined .831, and no one seemed all that interested in playing defense. Both coaches were so quick to throw their own teams' efforts under the bus that the quotes would have made the impartial observer find it tough to figure out which one actually walked out of there with two points. Lowell saved face with a 2-1 win against unranked State the next night.

Meanwhile, No. 2 Union crushed No. 9 St. Cloud at home on Friday, 5-1, before losing 3-2 the next night. What's interesting here is that, as with the Lowell/Michigan game, you'd think the higher-seeded Dutchmen lost instead of winning by four. (To be fair to Rick Bennett, they gave up 36 shots at home, and they're a team that thrives on possession.) This is a stunning presser, with Bennett kicking himself for not showing 30 turnovers a night in video sessions with the team:

Finally, No. 11 Denver and No. 19 Duluth split, with the Pioneers winning the first game 3-1 before getting trounced 6-1 the following night.

What conclusions can we draw from these results? That it's still early, and that very little probably separates a team in, say, the top five from one that's almost not ranked at all. That's great for college hockey.

What's wrong with Northeastern?

On the other end of the spectrum, we come to the discussion that has many observers in Hockey East in particular scratching their heads.

The Northeastern Huskies were picked to finish fourth in Hockey East. They returned a starting netminder who was among the best in the country last season, a point-a-game player in Anaheim pick Kevin Roy, and a number of other very talented young players.

And yet here they sit, 0-4 to start the year (and also lost their exhibition to a Canadian college). They have, in point of fact, been pathetic. They've scored just four goals in those four games, and allowed 15. They're 0-for-18 on the man advantage, and just 15 of 19 on the PK.

They have, to their credit, played tough opponents. Hosting Vermont and losing 6-2 is not ideal, of course, but you go to Colgate for a pair and you expect it to not go well for almost anyone. Maybe you don't get outscored 6-0 in those 120 minutes, but still. However, losing 3-2 at home to UMass is indefensible.

So what gives? Well, contrary to the widespread opinions in the college hockey media, which — like Randy Carlyle and Dave Nonis — takes every result at face value irrespective of the process which either got them there or was overcome in getting them there, the Huskies just aren't that good. They're not 0-4 bad, and they're not a shoot-3-percent-and-save-88-percent team. But they're not good.

Last year they went 19-14-4, which is respectable. But that's after starting the year 16-9-3, while the team shot about 10.8 percent and goaltender Clay Witt had a .946 save percentage. They collapsed badly down the stretch because their strategy of conceding 35 shots per night wasn't sustainable. And they changed nothing in the offseason.

The Huskies have conceded 127 shots in four games, which is actually an improvement, but two of their games saw them allow 37 and 41. After the first game, by the way, one of their assistant coaches argued that they're actually a good possession team, and that echoes something their head coach said last year: Giving up a million shots is part of the team's strategy because they're low-percentage (IN THEORY!). Their SF% was 46.7 in all situations last season. This year it's 48.6. That's a problem.

Wins are coming, as I said. An all-situations team PDO of 90.5 can't stand. But maybe not all that soon. They're visiting Quinnipiac — which, to be fair, hasn't won any of its last three games — for a pair this weekend, then they're taking on Lowell in a home-and-home. Not easy to get results out of that. But this team is too talented throughout the lineup to languish for too much longer than that.

Still, though, they won't be as good as most people thought at the beginning of the year, because they were never that good, and weren't going to be so just because a bunch of yokels thought they were.

Only six undefeated teams remain

There are 59 teams in Division 1, and through three weeks of the season, only about 10 percent of them haven't dropped a decision yet. Those teams are a mix of surprising and unsurprising.

Minnesota, okay, sure. No kidding they're 4-0. Vermont is 4-0 and BU 3-0, too, and that's not really a shocker. But they've played one tough opponent combined so far (BU vs. Michigan; Vermont hasn't played anyone of note in Northeastern, Clarkson twice, and then UConn).

But how about these other three teams: Michigan Tech and Northern Michigan are both 4-0, and Robert Morris is 5-0-1. Together, they won a combined 48 games, and of that number Robert Morris took 19 and finished just one game above .500.

Now, you can say the same thing about all these teams that you can about Vermont: They haven't really played anyone. In terms of strength of schedule, Robert Morris is at No. 55 out of that 59, Northern is 40th, and Tech is 38th. (Tech at least had the decency to take down No. 8 Ferris State twice, on the road, this past weekend. But I'd argue Ferris isn't nearly as good as most people seem to think.)

Still, if they all have somewhere between 20 and 35 percent of their wins from last season before Halloween, then they're positioning themselves well to go far in their conferences. Which is what it's really all about anyway.

And the reason for all that winning...

Teams that have yet to lose any of their games are, interestingly, doing it all for pretty much the same reason: Their goaltending has been incredible.

A quick look at the national leaders in save percentage paints that picture pretty clearly. Robert Morris's Dalton Izyk is sitting at .990 through three appearances, two of which were shutouts. Matt O'Connor and Connor LaCouvee (for the sake of convenience, they should henceforth be referred to as Matt O'Connor LaCouvee) are a combined .970, Northern's Mathias Dahlström is .968, and so on.

Obviously, these are huge numbers that cannot be preserved for an entire season, so the question is just how much they're going to regress. It's worth noting that of the unbeatens, only Minnesota, backed by Lightning prospect Adam Wilcox, was able to get truly elite goaltending last season (.929 versus the national average of .908). Of the rest, only Vermont was able to get away from even a few points above that national number, climbing to .917 with the same pair they've got between the pipes this year. Meanwhile, Northern (.905) and Tech (.903) were below it.

From my own statistical research, these things matter in college hockey a lot more than they do the NHL. The difference between great and bad teams is much wider because there are more schools, and the better ones attract a higher-quality talent overall. Fourth-line players at North Dakota, for instance, would likely dominate lesser conferences. Thus, regression tends to hit earlier and harder than it does in the NHL.

An somewhat arbitrary ranking of teams which are pretty good in my opinion only (and just for right now but maybe for a little longer too?)

1.     Minnesota (swept Bemidji at home)

2.     Colgate (swept Sacred Heart on the road)

3.     North Dakota (took three points from Providence at home)

4.     Union (split with St. Cloud at home)

5.     St. Cloud (split with Union on the road)

6.     Boston University (swept Michigan State and Michigan at home)

7.     UMass Lowell (split with Michigan and Michigan state at home)

8.     Boston College (swept Colorado College and UMass at home)

9.     Michigan (split with Lowell and BU on the road)

10.   Vermont (beat UConn at home)

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is hereand his Twitter is here