Huge If True: NCAA free agents now available

[HUGE IF TRUE breaks down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Rumor

Every year around this time, as various teams' NCAA seasons come to an end, we start to see a rush of players signing with AHL and NHL teams on a regular basis. Of course, a good number of them are free agents, capable of signing with any team they like, and this is often a tantalizing deal for NHL teams.

Basically, they get to stock their prospect pools (and even NHL teams on occasion) with young-ish players who have experience playing against competition as old as 25 or 26 years old, for little more than a signing bonus and a relatively small entry-level deal.

To wit, on Tuesday a pair of free agent transactions were announced, with UNH's Andrew Poturalski signing with the Carolina Hurricanes (a franchise always eager to dip into the NCAA free agent pool) and the New Jersey Devils (another) picking up Brown's Nick Lappin.

Both were quality players by any measure, and Poturalski is arguably a Hobey Baker candidate after ending his season with 22-30-52 in 37 games. That's rare for a 22-year-old sophomore, and he cashed in big time. Meanwhile,the 23-year-old Lappin ended his four-year career career with 51-55-106 in 123 games, which is extremely impressive for a player out of Brown.

These two are, however, likely only the first in a line of players many NHL teams would like to get their hands on.

Who's Going Where?

There are often teams, like Chicago, Minnesota, Carolina, and Florida, which come off as being very proactive about signing NCAA players in this way. But pretty much everyone tries to do it. So the emphasis on the question above isn't on the “where,” necessarily, but rather the “who.”

A guy highlighted by Bob McKenzie as drawing a lot of interest — for obvious reasons — is 6-foot-2 Minnesota State defenseman Casey Nelson. He's a major transition presence on the best possession team in the country, and at 23 years old would probably do well to bounce out of college before his senior season anyway. Scouts love the kid and it's pretty easy to see why.

The other guy everyone is going to be clamoring for is Drake Caggiula, an undersized point-producing winger for North Dakota who famously plays with Brock Boeser and Nick Schmaltz. Might he draw interest from one of those two players' draft teams in much the same way Evan Rodrigues did when Buffalo was going to draft linemate Jack Eichel last year? He's so fast — elite-level fast — that his size shouldn't be much of an issue, and his finish is off the charts.

Caggiula's teammate Troy Stecher, a 21-year-old junior D, is likewise an interesting prospect. He's undersized as well, just 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, but the points are there, and McKenzie says he's drawn comparisons to Jared Spurgeon, who's a good guy to whom one could be compared.

The other two truly big free agents are goaltenders. Yale's Alex Lyon is a junior, and the best goalie in the country with a .941 save percentage. But here's the thing: He's always been great, boasting a career .933 in 90 games, behind a .939 save percentage last year. He was a “mere” .918 (still comfortably above the national average) as a freshman. Teams should be beating down his door.

And maybe it's just something in the water in New Haven, Connecticut, because across town is Quinnipiac's Michael Garteig, who's sitting on .926 for the year and .917 for his career. Here, though, I would preach cautious optimism about the 24-year-old, who started the year white-hot but is now just .908 in his last 18 games. That's far more in line with the .908 career number he carried entering the year, isn't it?

Lastly, there is a trio of very good forwards in Hockey East, two at Providence College, one at BU. The Friars are Nick Saracino and Brandon Tanev (brother of the Canucks' Chris), both senior left wings, and both exemplary two-way players. If you've seen Tanev's brother play defense at the NHL, know that the younger one carries a similar style of play to the attacking game. Both seem as though they can be solid contributors at the next level.

Finally, there's BU senior winger (née defenseman) Ahti Oksanen, who's second on a strong Terriers team with 15 goals and 21 points in 36 games. But it's not so much the point production that should be attractive to NHL teams. It's the shots, talked about a little bit here. He's taken 184 in those 36 games, well above anyone else on the team (52 more than second-place Danny O'Regan) or indeed the entire country (21 more than Vermont's Mario Puskarich in one fewer game). His 5.11 shots per game is the third-highest total seen in college hockey since 2012-13, behind only Casey Bailey — playing for trigger-happy Penn State — and shot generation wunderkind Frank Vatrano. The latter of these players has continued that dominance at the AHL and NHL levels this season.

All these guys, though, are still playing, so it'll probably be another few weeks before they get to actually sign.

The Implications

Again, it's just good business for teams to constantly monitor college free agents and try to sign them when their seasons come to an end.

In a cap world for which asset management grows increasingly crucial, the ability to get players — even those who can't necessarily contribute at the NHL level — for nothing but money is important. In general, college free agents don't become impact star players, but many go on to be quality NHLers for at least a little while.

If nothing else, it's a guy to add a little competition for prospects with higher ceilings and to use as mortar when injuries pile up. Even if they don't end up sticking with the organization, these players can be used in trades to make other things happen that help a club's long-term situation. And if they actually work out? That's great too.

Just from asking around the last few weeks, there seems to be a big clamor about the guys listed above, but none are really drawing the interest of, say, Christian Folin a few years ago, who had to sift through 20-plus offers before signing with the Minnesota Wild. The guy I think probably gets the most interest is Lyon, because goalies of his long-demonstrate quality don't just come along to the college UFA market every day.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

Well obviously it's true, but it's always tough to connect specific players and teams. An NHL team that may be reported as being “a front-runner” for one player might end up settling on someone else. That kind of thing. So personally I wouldn't believe a rumor until it actually happens, but you never know. Therefore:

This is the best time of year in college hockey, and for NHL teams hoping to plumb up some quality players, that might just apply double.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)

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