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Huge If True: Inside the Mikkel Boedker trade market

Huge If True: Inside the Mikkel Boedker trade market

 

[HUGE IF TRUE breaks down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

 

The Rumor

One guy who has been really good for a not-good team this year, but who has been little-discussed in the whole “Trade Rumors” industry is Mikkel Boedker. He's second on Arizona in scoring (13-24-37 in 56 games, which tells you a lot about the team's overall offensive capabilities) and has suffered in possession only because he's getting top-line minutes against tough competition on a team that is flat-out bad.

But that quiet air surrounding the pending UFA was disturbed heavily and quickly on Tuesday night, when TSN's Insider Trading spent a huge amount of time discussing him. He also came up, albeit briefly, in 30 Thoughts this week, because Arizona would like to re-sign him.

However, Pierre LeBrun doesn't think that's going to happen, meaning that the Coyotes would love to trade him instead, so they can get at least something back for him. He just turned 26 in June, so he's got a lot of miles ahead of him, and he's certainly demonstrating his value this season.

Consequently, Bob McKenzie has Boedker's asking price in free agency at $5 million or more for at least five years, and LeBrun adds that for the most part, it seems as though any offers made by the club since January have been flat turned down. All that leads to speculation that Don Maloney could be looking for the type of package Antoine Vermette fetched at the deadline last year, a good prospect plus a first-round pick. A team like Arizona cannot afford to lose him for nothing.

So Maloney is apparently talking to a lot of teams out there, asking around about what Boedker might be able to get him, just in case a contract doesn't happen, which seems unlikely.

Who's Going Where?

Are there any teams looking for rental top-six forwards with low cap hits ($3.75 million) who they could also potentially re-sign long-term when the season's over? Probably about a dozen of them.

What about Tampa, as a kind of Stamkos insurance? Or Anaheim because you can never score enough goals? Or Washington, which could probably use a winger? And so on. You'll probably see them all named in the next week or two, before a trade is actually made.

However, LeBrun only specifically brought up Chicago and Pittsburgh as potential landing spots. Not that Stan Bowman really needs the help, but if he wants to make a trade it appears Jonathan Toews's wing would be a good spot for Boedker. Likewise, LeBrun also recently cited the Penguins as a team that is aggressively seeking rental players, and that Boedker would slide into their top-six with ease, playing beside either Sid Crosby or (when he's healthy again) Evgeni Malkin.

So the question quickly becomes what those teams have to offer, right? While McKenzie stresses the cost of a rental has really yet to be set in this silly season, it's worth noting that if Maloney is asking for a first-round pick and a decent prospect, Pittsburgh can't make that happen this year.

Toronto got Pittsburgh's first-rounder in the Kessel deal on the condition that the Penguins make the playoffs (if not, the 2017 first goes instead). Which is to say that while their chances for locking down that playoff spot seem pretty good anyway, adding Boedker would likely push them over the top, creating something of a Catch-22. In either event, the pick isn't really Jim Rutherford's to give.

Fortunately it seems that Pittsburgh is in something of an either/or scenario with respect to acquiring Boedker or Roman Polak (which, why?) so if they can't make this deal work they can get least get someone they're targeting (which, again, why?)

As for Chicago, they have their first-round picks for each of the next three years, so that's not a problem. Nor is the “good prospect” thing, because Chicago has more than a few of those. However, the real issue is whether they'd be willing to give those up for a pure rental. The odds they could re-sign Boedker at anything close to his asking price seem very slim, especially with Artem Anisimov's new deal kicking in next year. They also have to re-sign RFAs Andrew Shaw, Richard Panik, Viktor Svedberg, Jiri Sekac, Phillip Danault, and so on.

And while they seem perfectly content to continue to bury Bryan Bickell and Rob Scuderi in the minors for now, both have contracts which extend into next year, and make the cap situation rather uncomfortable.

I just don't see a huge fit in Chicago unless the Coyotes take back a contract and, perhaps, Chicago retains some salary. They currently retain none, so that wouldn't be a problem.

When it comes to other potential destinations, always remember that unless you hear it from a very reputable source — usually someone in the national media rather than local — it's probably bunk.

The Implications

Well we can make a pretty reasonable guess that Boedker will be traded at some point before the deadline. That would just be sound asset management, and Maloney knows all too well that rebuilding teams can't just let players on dead-end teams walk. All signs in the league point to a trade for a reason: It has to happen.

Of course, there's always Andrew Ladd to consider. He's certainly better than Boedker, so if you could have one or the other, you'd probably pick Ladd. The question becomes whether he costs appreciably more? All things being equal — supposing the “first and an A/B prospect” package gets you one of these players — you obviously favor Ladd.

But if a team like Chicago, just for example, doesn't have the cap room to make a deal for either one work long-term, is it more worth it to them to give up an extra something to get a player that is likely significantly better than Boedker? I would guess the answer is yes. Not that Bowman has to push “all in” because his team's window is closing any time soon, but if you think you need an extra contributor the extra pick or decent prospect probably doesn't bother you too much. And even if you miss out on Ladd, perhaps Boedker represents a reasonable fallback position.

And let's not forget about the whole Loui Eriksson situation, which remains unresolved in Boston and would likewise impact the market for Boedker substantially.

Boedker will help anyone who acquires him. But he's not the best rental option available on the wing. And that more than anything else is likely to impact what Maloney eventually gets back for him.

One imagines, then, that teams will either try to strike a favorable deal before Ladd or Eriksson gets traded, or wait for the market to be set first.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

There is, again, little doubt he'll be moved. But to Pittsburgh or Chicago? I dunno. So much is still up in the air. To that end, we give this:

3 poops
3 poops

We know the guy is leaving, but we too many potential destinations to pin anything down.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)