The ingredients for each of the six major Super Bowl upsets

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Almost everyone seems to think the Carolina Panthers will win Super Bowl 50, and beat the Denver Broncos rather handily.

That has been the vibe in the Bay Area, and the betting in Las Vegas reflects it too. Jay Kornegay, who runs the sports book at the Las Vegas Westgate, said earlier this week that 85 percent of bets are coming in on the favored Panthers, according to Jason Logan at Covers.com. The Panthers were favored by 5.5 points on the morning of Super Bowl Sunday.

Before we book the victory parade in Charlotte for next week, it’s worth looking at the history of some of the notable upsets in Super Bowl history. Alfred Williams was involved in one of the six major upsets in Super Bowl history, as an All-Pro defensive end for the 1997 Denver Broncos. The Broncos were 11-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XXXII and won 31-24. The problem with asking Williams how the Broncos pulled off that upset is he never thought it was an upset.

“We were way better than them. Period," said Williams, who these days hosts a radio show in Denver. "We went across our individual matchups and I couldn't see where they were better than us. They weren't better than us at running back, they weren't better than us at quarterback, they weren't better than us at wide receiver or tight end or offensive line or defensive line for that matter. We matched them everywhere. I don't understand why we were not favored."

Williams said he never knew what the point spread was that week. He said he realized most people expected the Packers to win, but he never did.

“I hear that and I laugh. Because I'm like, man, maybe people really did think we were going to lose that game,” Williams said with a shrug.

Williams is biased, but he thinks this Broncos team can pull off the seventh big upset in Super Bowl history. So as it turns out, not everyone in the Bay Area believes the Panthers will roll.

“This team has a lot of old, salty veterans who can play,” Williams said. "People don't understand who the Broncos are right now. They're a tough, resilient, do-whatver-it-takes football team."

To qualify as a major Super Bowl upset for this post, the winning team had to be at least a 7-point underdog coming in, based on Vegas Insider’s Super Bowl betting history. Not every upset is the same, but there are lessons to be learned from each of the six shockers in Super Bowl history. (We’ll even include Super Bowl XXXII, even though Williams insists it wasn’t an upset.)

Super Bowl III
New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7
Colts were favored by 18 points

We all know the Jets were confident coming in, given Joe Namath’s famous guarantee and all. And the Jets played well but it’s easy to see why they won: The Colts had five turnovers, and the Jets had one. Even an 18-point underdog has a shot when it’s plus-four in turnovers. Three of the Colts’ interceptions were thrown at the Jets’ 4-yard line, the Jets’ 15  and the Jets’ 25. One pick came when Earl Morrall missed Johnny Orr running wide open on a trick play. The Colts also missed a couple field goals, including a 27-yarder early on. The Jets did a fine job running the ball and moving the chains with a short passing game, but turnovers were the key. The Colts did not play well.

Ingredients for the upset: Turnovers, turnovers and more turnovers

Super Bowl IV
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Minnesota Vikings 7
Vikings were favored by 12

We have to take into account that sometimes the line is way off. That might have been the case for Super Bowl IV as everyone was still under the impression the AFL was the NFL’s junior varsity. Looking back, the Chiefs had a phenomenal team. They had seven Hall of Fame players and a Hall of Fame coach in Hank Stram. But again, turnovers were key. The Vikings had five. The Chiefs had one. Kansas City’s defense had a great day, limiting Minnesota to 239 yards, 13 first downs and a single second-half touchdown after the Chiefs already held a 16-0 lead.

Ingredients for the upset: Turnovers, stifling defense, bad betting line

Super Bowl XXV
New York Giants 20, Buffalo Bills 19
Bills were favored by 7

This upset featured complementary football at its finest. The Giants' offense pounded the ball on the ground and held the pigskin for an amazing 40:33. That kept the Bills’ great offense off the field. And Buffalo didn’t do much when it had the ball. The Giants took away the deep pass, giving up just one toss of more than 20 yards. Thurman Thomas had a fine day on the ground, but the Giants were willing to live with that. And then there was some luck, as Scott Norwood missed wide right at the end.

Ingredients for the upset: Time of possession, limit big plays, missed field goal at the end

Super Bowl XXXII
Denver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24
Packers were favored by 11

Williams’ feelings about this game aren’t unique. Many players from that Broncos team will say they were very confident they were going to win because they felt they were the best team. And as we look back, the 1996-98 Broncos were a phenomenal football team. Coach Mike Shanahan also had a great day, effectively taking All-Pro defenders Reggie White and LeRoy Butler out of the game with his play-calling. And the Broncos got a phenomenal effort from Terrell Davis, who rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns despite missing about a quarter due to a migraine headache. We’ll also give Williams some credit: There’s no way this Broncos team should have been a double-digit underdog against anyone.

"We just played our normal game," Williams said. "We didn't make any adjustments. We just played football."

Ingredients for the upset: Coaching, great individual performance, bad betting line

Super Bowl XXXVI
New England Patriots 20, St. Louis Rams 17
Rams favored by 14

Of all the upsets on the list, this one is among the hardest to figure out. The Rams dominated the box score. St. Louis had 26 first downs to New England’s 15, 427 yards to 267 for the Patriots, and controlled the ball for 33:30. Tom Brady had 92 passing yards going into New England’s final drive. New England was just 2-of-11 on third downs.

Turnovers were huge. St. Louis had three. New England had none. Cornerback Ty Law’s pick-six of Kurt Warner was the biggest play of the game. A fumble by the Rams gave the Patriots field position at St. Louis’ 40-yard line and they cashed in a touchdown.

It was also curious that the Rams didn’t use Marshall Faulk more, giving him just 17 carries compared to 44 pass attempts for Warner.

Give Bill Belichick credit for doing some things to take Faulk away. And while the Patriots gave up a lot of yards, they got key stops. St. Louis didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter.

Then, of course, when New England needed it, Brady came alive and led one great drive to set up Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal.

Ingredients for the upset: Turnovers, big defensive score, clutch last-minute drive

Super Bowl XLII
New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14
Patriots favored by 12

The Patriots were on the wrong end of an upset just six years later. This game was dominated by the Giants’ defensive line, which got consistent pressure on Brady and sacked him five times. Due to pressure the Giants held an offense that is among the best in NFL history to just 14 points. The Patriots were stuck on 7 points until the final three minutes.

New York also didn’t give up any big plays. The longest pass play for the Patriots was 19 yards. Their longest run was 9 yards. New England couldn't effectively run the ball, with just 45 yards on 16 attempts. The Giants made New England one-dimensional but still didn’t allow any big pass plays.

The Patriots took the lead with 2:45 left. Then Eli Manning led a game-winning drive highlighted by David Tyree’s famous helmet catch. New York coverted a fourth down and two third downs on that drive, including a third-and-11 after Tyree’s catch.

Ingredients for the upset: No big plays allowed, dominant pass rush, clutch late drive

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab