Steelers over 8.5 wins? Dolphins win the AFC East? Vegas' best NFL bets

LAS VEGAS — It's fantasy football draft season, so I begged until they sent me to I'm in Vegas for the Yahoo Fantasy Football National Draft Day celebration at the Hard Rock.

It's on Saturday, so there's still a chance for you to jump on an airplane and get here for it. Meet me at the craps table. (As an aside I'll have either Andrew Luck or Calvin Johnson in the second round of all my fantasy leagues this year, and you should too if you'd like to win).

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Anyway, it's also NFL futures betting season. After going 135-127-3 against the spread in all NFL games last season I'm back to try to correctly predict at least 51.5 percent of these futures bets posted here at the Hard Rock by Cantor Gaming.

As alwaysm a reminder: I'm not a professional gambler and I'm fairly terrible at picking games and whatnot so you can probably find someone a little better at predicting the NFL future. But hey, my picks are free! So, for recreational purposes, here are the best futures bets for the NFL season:

Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins, minus-135 (meaning one has to bet $135 to win $100)

I liked this pick better before the Martavis Bryant four-game suspension news. And before Maurkice Pouncey's ankle surgery. But I still just don't see this as a .500 team or worse. The offense is too good, the front seven is too fast and the secondary ... well, you got me there. But they were 11-5 last season, and do you think they're three games worse? Even with a tougher schedule, I'm taking them to be above .500.

New York Jets under 7 wins, plus-122 ($100 to win $122)

This line rose to 7.5 wins before quarterback Geno Smith got his jaw broken by a teammate. I wonder, is Ryan Fitzpatrick really that much worse to justify that line move? Probably not. But I thought the line was crazy at 7.5 and I'm still good with it at 7. I don't think this team reaches 8-8 with that offense and a tough AFC East to contend with. I think they're the worst team in the division, and even if it's not a winner the worst-case scenario seems to be 7-9 and a push.

NFC minus-3 over the AFC in the Super Bowl

Just because this is a ridiculous and pick to make blind more than five months before Super Bowl 50.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the NFC South, 5-to-1

No, I'm not picking Tampa Bay to win the division. Nobody is dumb enough to do that. But 5-to-1 to win what was the worst division ever last season? Pretty good odds. If Jameis Winston is a bad quarterback and not an absolute nightmare, it's an upgrade from last season. The Bucs had a crazy unlucky record in close games last year. I'm not going to talk you into the Buccaneers being great, but 5-to-1 is too high.

Chicago Bears under 7 wins, minus-170

If you can find 8 wins on the Bears schedule, good on you. I don't see it. That's a lot of juice, but I'm buying the Bears being bad this season.

San Francisco 49ers under 7 wins, minus-190

Copy and paste from above.

Miami Dolphins will make playoffs, plus-115; Dolphins win AFC East, 17-to-5; Dolphins win Super Bowl 23-to-1

Yeah, I like the Dolphins this season. I'd also pick over 8.5 wins but it's minus-185. If you look at the Dolphins schedule, they should be favored in their first six games. They might not win them all, but a 5-1 start seems doable. Then maybe they ride that to a big breakout season. I liked this team through the offseason, they've looked great in the preseason (I know, I know), and I'm all in on the 2015 Dolphins. And if coach Joe Philbin submarines this talented roster and they go 8-8 or worse, I've always told my daughter that student loans for college aren't that bad.

Philadelphia Eagles will not make playoffs, plus-125

The Cowboys are the favorites to win the NFC East going into the season, and rightfully so. So why are the Eagles minus-155 to make the playoffs? (By the way, the Colts are minus-725 to make the playoffs ... and I still can't bet "no" as a long shot.) I'd probably pick the Eagles to make the playoffs if I had to, but this roster is so much different than last season and so many things can go wrong over 16 games (especially with a quarterback coming off two straight ACL tears) that I can't just assume they make a wild-card spot if the Cowboys win the East. Taking "no" on the Eagles at plus-odds is the way to go.

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Seattle Seahawks 26-to-5 to win Super Bowl

I can't say I enjoy picking anyone to win a championship at less than 10-to-1. But I do love Seattle this season. I think the Seahawks are head and shoulders above anyone else, and I think the Kam Chancellor thing gets solved somehow. Once that does, the Seahawks emerge as clear favorites in the NFC. Seattle's two main competitors have taken major hits with the Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson and the Dallas Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick going down with season-ending injuries already. I think you won't regret having the Seahawks at a little better than 5-to-1 by the time January rolls around.

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab