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Shutdown Countdown: Broncos a contender, and not because of offense

 

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 6: DENVER BRONCOS

When you have a quarterback like Peyton Manning, everything else is just the previews before the movie starts.

The story lines around the Denver Broncos all revolve around Manning's fade last season, if this is his last year and how he fits in Gary Kubiak's run-centric offense. Other questions on the first couple days of Broncos camp seemed like an intrusion. (When I visited Broncos camp, I wrote about Manning and the offense too, here and here.)

(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto)
(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto)

And you wonder how Denver's third-ranked defense feels about all of that.

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These Broncos aren't the Dan Fouts-era Chargers, just hoping to outscore the opponent because that's their only shot to win. Only the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions gave up fewer yards than Denver last season. The Broncos allowed just 4.7 yards per play, second in the NFL to the Seahawks. They allowed even fewer yards per pass than the Seahawks' great secondary (and by a wide margin, a league-best 6.0 to Seattle's 6.3) and were fourth in yards allowed per rushing attempt. The Broncos' defense is legitimately one of the best in the NFL.

Here's the better news for Denver: Nine starters return from that defense, if you count talented linebacker Danny Trevathan coming back from an injury-filled 2014. And they drafted pass rusher Shane Ray in the first round, to go with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Not many pass rushers of Ray's talent level come off the bench. Not many teams have two top pass rushers like Miller and Ware.

Denver has a great set of corners in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, and 2014 first-round pick Bradley Roby as the nickel corner. The Broncos can rush the quarterback, stop the pass when the ball does come out, and they're pretty good up front against the run. The Broncos did lose coordinator Jack Del Rio, but replaced him with Wade Phillips. Of Phillips' last eight defenses, seven have finished in the top 10 in yards allowed. He's very good at devising a defense. Miller, in particular, might contend for defensive player of the year honors in Phillips' defense.

When you look at the Broncos in that light a top defensive team that just needs the offense to hold up its end of the bargain the worries about the Broncos slipping back seem overdone. The offense will be fine, although different than the past few years because they'll run more. Four of Kubiak's last five offenses finished in the NFL's top eight in rushing yards. And he has C.J. Anderson as the starter and former second-round pick Montee Ball if Anderson fails. That's a good top two.

Oh yeah, and the Broncos have a quarterback who threw for 4,727 yards, 39 touchdowns and posted a 101.5 rating last season. The Manning we saw in 2013 might not return, but he won't be Johnny Unitas with the Chargers either. Especially with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to.

It's odd to think of the Broncos as a defensive powerhouse, but they've finished in the top three in total defense twice in Manning's three Broncos years. They finished second in 2012 and 19th in 2013, though they faced a lot of plays in 2013 because the offense was so good. Assuming the defense will be top-five again, you'd think the offense will do enough to keep Denver in contention.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The Broncos had another fine season, finishing second in the AFC, but all anyone remembers is the playoff loss to the Colts.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same? It's worse. The Broncos' spending spree caught up with them a bit. Tight end Julius Thomas left for a big payday in Jacksonville, and he was replaced by veteran Owen Daniels. Daniels isn't bad but that's a downgrade. Guard Orlando Franklin left for San Diego. Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and safety Rahim Moore, both starters, left as well. Some solid veteran pieces were added, but nothing too exciting. The roster took some hits this offseason.

Best offseason acquisition: Free agency didn't deliver any big names and I'm not sure how much Ray plays right away, so let's go with second-round pick Ty Sambrailo, an offensive tackle out of Colorado State. That looked like a depth move until left tackle Ryan Clady tore his ACL. Now Sambrailo is the favorite to be Denver's left tackle this season. Which is not ideal news as we look at ...

Achilles' heel: The Broncos' line was a little bit of a question before Clady injured his knee. Now it's easily the biggest issue the Broncos have. They can patch some things together, but a lot depends on if Sambrailo can be an effective left tackle as a rookie. That's a lot to ask anyone, much less a late second-round pick. Louis Vazquez is a good right guard, but the rest of the line has question marks. Some can be masked by Manning, who is masterful at avoiding sacks because he gets the ball out so quick, and perhaps some of their linemen will fit better in the zone-blocking scheme. However, if the Broncos struggle this season it's probably because the line didn't play well.

C.J. Anderson (AP)
C.J. Anderson (AP)

Position in flux:

Aside from the offensive line, most spots are set. There's some question of how the Broncos will use Ball, if they do at all. Anderson was a workhorse down the stretch and there's no reason to change that. But Ball is a good fit for Kubiak's offense, and has talent too. Last year's struggles can be written off due to emergency appendix surgery last August. Ball rushed back and that was a mistake. That's not like an ankle injury; the effects can linger for a long time. And that's what happened with Ball. Everyone around the Broncos raved about Ball's work this offseason. If both backs stay healthy, it will be interesting to see if Ball can carve out a significant role.

Ready to break out: Receiver Cody Latimer is another talented former second-round pick who looked good early in camp, but his role is uncertain. The Broncos are more likely to go with an extra tight end than a third receiver in most situations this season, leaving Latimer to take advantage of whatever limited snaps he can get. But after a lost rookie season he seems to be ready for whatever role he gets. With Manning throwing him the ball, Latimer should make some impact, even if his numbers aren't enormous.

Stat fact: Manning's 101.5 rating last season was the fifth best of his storied 17-year career. You can't ignore Manning's struggles late in the season, particularly in the playoff loss to the Colts. The Broncos started shifting their offense to Anderson well before Manning hurt his quad against the Chargers on Dec. 14, so that injury explains some but not all of the issues. But if your reason for writing off the Broncos is Manning, you probably need to rethink that. He won't be the same quarterback, but many teams would be thrilled to have someone capable of posting a triple-digit rating. Even if Manning takes a step back, he can take a step back and still be a top-10 quarterback.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The Broncos schedule is pretty tough, especially early on. They start the season with a home game against Baltimore, then they have a Thursday night contest at Kansas City, play at Detroit in Week 3 and then have a potentially sneaky tough home game against Minnesota. That Ravens opener is a phenomenal Week 1 game, the best of the entire opening week, and should give us a good idea where the Broncos are this season.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: The Broncos' Super Bowl window is still open. Manning could be very efficient now that the Broncos plan to use him more conservatively. Kubiak is a great offensive mind and the same can be said for Phillips on the defensive side. The Broncos have had a first-round bye every season with Manning, and that could continue. Any team with a top-three defense, top-10 running game and top-10 quarterback is a strong championship contender, and the Broncos should check every box.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: Mostly it starts with the offensive line. That unit could be a serious problem. And that's the last thing you want to hear when your quarterback is 39 years old with multiple neck surgeries in his past. Poor line play could obviously also affect the running game, which would put more on Manning, which the Broncos clearly want to avoid. Denver wants to peak in January, but if the line is a mess then it's hard to envision that happening.

The crystal ball says: The Broncos will still contend in the AFC, but I don't think they're as good as they were the past few years and the rest of the conference is better. Maybe the running-game/defense/Manning in-smaller-doses formula is better suited for a championship run, but I don't necessarily buy that. That 2013 Broncos team was special; they just ran up against a better team in the Super Bowl. I think the Broncos win the AFC West but don't get a bye, and that will make for a tough road in the AFC. Then we'll wait to see if Manning wants to play another year at age 40.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers
22. New York Giants
21. New Orleans Saints
20. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
18. St. Louis Rams
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. San Diego Chargers
15. Buffalo Bills
14. Detroit Lions
13. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Arizona Cardinals
9. Miami Dolphins
8. Dallas Cowboys
7. Baltimore Ravens

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!