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Shutdown Corner's Playoff Projection: Throwing darts in AFC East, NFC South

Eric Edholm

Feel like you have a grasp on either the AFC East right now? What about the NFC South?

If so, you're a freaking genius. No less.

Each division is — by definition — competitive, if by that you mean that all four teams in each one is lumped together in a morass of mediocrity. Sorry we're not sorry.

The New England Patriots just experienced their worst undressing in years on Monday. The Buffalo Bills just changed starting quarterbacks. The New York Jets might be the next to. The Miami Dolphins staved off talk of that by beating the Oakland Raiders, but how good was that really?

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We picked the Bills to earn the fourth playoff spot, even though most people think that the Patriots have the better shot of fixing their many issues right now. The thinking is that if the Bills are 2-2 with EJ Manuel, shouldn't Kyle Orton and an expanded offensive game plan make them more dangerous? That defensive line, a handful of special playmakers and some solid special teams don't hurt.

But it's a stretch. We get it.

Any prediction about the ugly NFC South is just about as thorny a navigation. Here we went with the Atlanta Falcons, but that's with the understanding that they will find five healthy offensive linemen and fix a defense that — somehow — is worst than last season's unit. Matt Ryan and the passing game will do enough, but this does not appear to be a team built to last, even if it does win the division.

But seriously, what does it say about the South that the Falcons might be the most settled team right now? The logical choice still would be the New Orleans Saints, but this has been a most illogical start for them. We're not afraid to look stupid leaving them out of this week's projections, even though we might reverse field in a week or beyond.

Now let's get onto some questions about how we have the playoffs stacked as things stand now heading into Week 5.

You still like the Eagles?

Like is a relative term. They too are replete with minefields: an offensive line that is a M.A.S.H. unit right now (although getting Lane Johnson back from suspension this week helps), LeSean McCoy is in the Witness Protection Program and the Eagles' defense — despite some big plays last week — doesn't feel like a group that can stunt really good offensive teams.

Yeah, we're buying ... for now. We even have them in one of our top two spots in the NFC, which — based on their competition — might be a big reason why they finish with that good a record. But some spots became a little darker in last week's loss to the San Francisco 49ers for sure.

What about the Colts?

What about them? The best things you can say are they they have Andrew Luck and some really good targets and that they play in the AFC South. For some of the same reasons with the Eagles, the Colts' playoff seed might not truly be reflective of how good they are in a vacuum. We could see them lose some high-profile games, such as those against the Patriots or Bengals, but we also could see them winning out at 6-0 in the division. That's half the battle, or more.

What makes the Ravens your final wild-card team in on the AFC side?

I like their tenacity and their us-against-the-world thing seems to be working. They'll get better defensively with a healthy Lardarius Webb, and offensively you know they'll find a way to get Torrey Smith heated up and make this three-headed running-back thing work in some form for the remainder of the season. Gary Kubiak has made a difference as a play caller, Steve Smith has been a godsend, and the good coaching has pushed aside the Ray Rice talk and made this journey about football. Three straight wins have me believing they can be the more consistent team than, say, the Steelers, whom they beat handily a few weeks back.

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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!