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Shutdown Corner Playoff Projection: Can Buccaneers find way to sneak in?

 
 

We're going to switch things up on the projections this week and take a look at the glut of teams in the middle class of the NFL that still could find their way into the playoffs.

It's stunning how much parity there is outside the bottom few and the top handful of teams.

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There are no more byes left on the schedule, so everyone has the same number of games left. But the schedules the teams still in contention must play are far different.

Let's assume, for arugment's sake, that the AFC East, AFC West, NFC South and NFC West divisions are wrapped up — even though they aren't really. But all four of those division leaders have three-game (or more) cushions they should be able to hold onto.

The least-sure bet would be the NFC West, as we know what happened exactly a year ago: The Arizona Cardinals, entering Week 12, held a three-game edge on the Seattle Seahawks, exactly as it stands now. The Seahawks overtook the division and came within a yards of another Super Bowl title then, but it's a tougher climb with only one game left against the Cardinals, having lost to them two weeks ago in Seattle.

But there still is a glut of nearly 20 teams fighting for a wild-card or division berth with at least a 4-6 record, plus the 3-7 Dallas Cowboys who are only two games out of first. Let's take a look at how things stand for these teams looking forward.

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First, here's the AFC picture:

Team

Record

Division games remaining

Opponent win % (remaining games)

Cincinnati Bengals

8-2

3

45

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-4

3

50

Kansas City Chiefs

5-5

3

34

Indianapolis Colts

5-5

3

45

Houston Texans

5-5

3

50

Buffalo Bills

5-5

1

44

New York Jets

5-5

3

48

Oakland Raiders

4-6

4

48

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-6

3

39

Miami Dolphins

4-6

2

49

Clearly, the Bengals are in great shape to clinch a playoff spot and perhaps a first-round bye; they have games left vs. the Steelers, whom they are trying to hold off for the division, and the Broncos, who are the current AFC No. 3 seed.

Don't snooze on the Chiefs, who started 1-5 but who have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They're a legit wild-card contender and not out of the division race.

Of the 4-6 teams, the Jaguars clearly have the easiest road in with the South being a garbage division. The fact that their opponents have won 39 percent of their games is also nice, but the Colts' schedule isn't that much harder. Like the Chiefs, the Texans have saved their season and still could be a wild card, too.

And now here's the NFC:

Team

Record

Division games remaining

Opponent win % (remaining games)

Green Bay Packers

7-3

3

49

Minnesota Vikings

7-3

2

59

Atlanta Falcons

6-4

4

65

New York Giants

5-5

2

56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-5

3

57

Seattle Seahawks

5-5

2

49

Washington Redskins

4-6

4

40

St. Louis Rams

4-6

3

56

Philadelphia Eagles

4-6

2

58

New Orleans Saints

4-6

3

55

Chicago Bears

4-6

3

46

Dallas Cowboys

3-7

2

58

It's clear here that the Vikings missed their opportunity to gran ahold of the North in last week's loss to the Packers. They meet again in Week 17, but will the Vikings be playing for a wild card at that point and not the division title?

We must be nuts. We still like the Cowboys' chances to win the East despite a tough schedule and a lot of catching up to do, needing to pass the other three teams. In fact, the Cowboys are technically the 16th-ranked NFC team entering Week 12 based on current playoff seeding tiebreakers. But they might not be done with Tony Romo back.

And don't snooze on the Bucs! They already beat the Falcons in Atlanta, have the easier schedule of the two teams and the rematch in Tampa in Week 13 that could help tilt the scales toward Jameis Winston's crew, winners of three of four and four of the past six games.

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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!