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NFL against the spread picks: Which teams are perfect vs. the number?

A team can get off to a great start in the NFL just by catching a nice scheduling stretch at the beginning. The opposite can be true, if you get a brutal schedule for the first month. Ask the Kansas City Chiefs.

It's not as easy to beat the point spread every week. Your record against the spread doesn't count it's not like Ron Rivera is upset about a 4-0 start with the Carolina Panthers if his team failed to cover a spread or two but it's a decent snapshot of how dominant teams have been. And there are five undefeated teams left, three of which have perfect records without any ties (records are from OddsShark.com):

Cincinnati Bengals, 4-0
Green Bay Packers, 4-0
Atlanta Falcons, 4-0
New England Patriots, 2-0-1
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2-0-2

The surprise on the list is the Steelers, because they haven't been one of the NFL's better teams yet. That list shows how good the Bengals and Falcons have been early on. We expected the Packers and Patriots to be two of the elite teams this season, and they've lived up to it. No teams are winless against the spread.

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The problem is, records against the spread aren't predictive. Oddsmakers move up their rankings for teams like the Falcons, who have been a bit of a surprise. They're not going to let Atlanta go 16-0 against the spread, let's say. And we can probably see in this week's spreads that the spreads for some of the NFL's top teams so far are creeping higher and higher.

With that, here are the Week 5 picks (with the spreads, as usual, coming from the Yahoo Sports Pro Football Pick'em):

Texans (off) over Colts: That was one truly pathetic performance by the Texans. It's one thing to get beat by Andrew Luck, but they got picked apart by a 40-year-old quarterback who was so sick all week the Colts' quarterbacks coach told him he would understand if he couldn't play Thursday night. Great job by Matt Hasselbeck, not so much for a Texans roster that looks like it might be one of the two or three worst in the NFL.

Redskins (+7.5) over Falcons: I'm not sure if Washington is any good on the road. We saw them play one road game and it wasn't pretty. But I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they can keep this close.

Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor (31) knocks the ball loose from Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) in the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Oct. 5, 2015, in Seattle. The fumble went out of bounds in the end zone and was ruled a touchback. The Seahawks beat the Lions 13-10. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor (31) knocks the ball loose from Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) in the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Oct. 5, 2015, in Seattle. The fumble went out of bounds in the end zone and was ruled a touchback. The Seahawks beat the Lions 13-10. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

Seahawks (+2.5) over Bengals:

I'm high on Cincinnati and we all saw Seattle struggle on Monday night. But I think the Seahawks have a lot of urgency here and I don't buy that they turned into just another team overnight. By late Sunday afternoon we'll be reminded that yes, the Seahawks are still a really, really good football team.

Rams (+9) over Packers: Never know what you'll get with the Rams, but they do have a pass rush that could at least disrupt Aaron Rodgers a little bit.

Bills (-2.5) over Titans: I'm a little less confident about this pick than I was earlier in the week. The Bills will likely be without LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams at running back, and receiver Sammy Watkins is iffy too. It's tough to go on the road missing so much offensive power. But I do also think Rex Ryan will confuse Marcus Mariota. And if Mariota plays well against this Bills defense, that will be incredibly impressive.

Bears (+9) over Chiefs: Not that I think the Bears are that good all of a sudden, but this seems like too many points.

Saints (+4.5) over Eagles: Again, too many points. What have the Eagles done so far to earn laying 4.5 points against anyone?

Jaguars (+2.5) over Buccaneers: Maybe I just have to forget that impressive game Tampa Bay played at New Orleans. Nothing they've done before or since resembles what they did at the Superdome.

Ravens (-6.5) over Browns: Little nervous about laying this many points without being able to tell you who will catch the ball from Joe Flacco. But the Ravens had a couple extra days rest, and the Browns are going from San Diego last week to Baltimore this week, which isn't a great scheduling spot.

Lions (+2.5) over Cardinals: They're absolutely begging you to take the Cardinals with this line. So I'll just take the other side and ignore that the Lions can't block anyone.

Cowboys (+8.5) over Patriots: No, it wouldn't surprise me if New England put up 45 points here. But that's a lot of points for a Cowboys team that at some point will get their running game really going.

Raiders (+5) over Broncos: I think Oakland has a shot to win here. At very least I think the Raiders will keep it close, because I think most Broncos games this season will be very close.

Giants (-7) over 49ers: The 49ers' defense looked pretty good last week. But the offense did nothing, and I have little confidence that's turning around this week.

Chargers (-3) over Steelers: Not prepared to take Michael Vick on the road yet.

Last week: 8-7
Season to date: 36-27-1

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!