Greg Cosell's Draft Preview: Ezekiel Elliott's transition to NFL

I was made aware of a stat recently: In the last three NFL drafts, only 11 percent of the first-round picks started all 16 games their rookie year.

That’s worth keeping in mind for any prospect, but I thought about it in regards to Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. The buzz on Elliott is strong. Some believe he’ll go as high as No. 4 overall to the Dallas Cowboys, and that might happen, I usually don’t try to predict such things.

But while we think Elliott and every other highly drafted prospect will be an All-Pro, it’s worth remembering the NFL transition isn’t always easy. We don’t have to go back too far to get a decent example of that at running back.

Todd Gurley had a great rookie year last season, but I don’t think Elliott is as good of a runner as Gurley (who I thought might be the best player in the 2015 draft). But what about Melvin Gordon? Gordon struggled with the San Diego Chargers last season. Everyone thought it was a great move when the Chargers traded up for Gordon, because he was a good prospect and they needed a running back, but Gordon wasn’t a good runner at the point of attack last season; he needed space early in the down to make something happen. He struggled when that space wasn’t there. Gordon had 641 yards and no touchdowns as a rookie.

I think Elliott is a better runner and a much better prospect overall than Gordon. I think Elliott is a good prospect overall. But I’m just a little leery on how any prospect will do right away as he adjusts to the NFL game, especially since Elliott ran almost exclusively out of the shotgun at Ohio State. He'll have to create his own space at times in the NFL. Maybe it means nothing that he hasn't run as an I-back yet, but maybe it does. We don't know yet.

That said, there are a lot of things about Elliott’s game that I like. Here are my notes on Elliott, from watching his game film:

• Naturally fluid with quick feet and smooth lateral agility. Explosive short area burst

• A glider with deceptive quickness to get through small cracks at the point of attack. An easy mover

• A very comfortable runner. Rarely looks like he’s working hard yet makes defenders miss with subtle shiftiness and change of direction

• Has the lateral agility to slide in the hole and create space in confined areas

• Decisive, attacking downhill with the ability to create in the hole and make defenders miss

• Lowered his pad level effectively at times to take on second- and third-level defenders. Excellent contact balance and kept his feet churning through contact

• Overall his pad level was inconsistent, At times did not run behind his pads and ran too high taking some big hits

• Showed the foot quickness to defeat quick penetration into the backfield and at the point of attack to maximize runs

• Showed very good hands as receiver out of the backfield. Made some tough hands catches

• A workhorse mentality as a runner, Ran hard inside and fought for extra yards. Finishing qualities

• A very good prospect with ideal size for the position (almost 6 feet tall and 225 pounds) and the running traits you look for in a foundation back

• Overall has the running style that fits the NFL game and is conducive to success: Natural power as an inside runner with contact balance, quick feet and lateral agility to change direction and create in the hole, short area burst to beat second level defenders

So there's a lot about Elliott that I like. I also think that he's an exceptional pass blocker, which will help him get on the field at lot right away (and if he's drafted as high as most people think he will be, that won't be a question anyway). Just keep in mind that the transition for players in the NFL can be a tough one, even for those prospects who we think are in the upper echelon.

PREVIOUS NFL DRAFT PREVIEWS FROM GREG COSELL
Comparing Carson Wentz to Andrew Luck is valid
Jared Goff's strengths and flaws
Laquon Treadwell's NFL WR comparisons
The case for Josh Doctson as draft's No. 1 receiver

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.