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Brock Osweiler might be most interesting figure of NFL offseason

Quarterback Brock Osweiler didn't want to talk about his future before Super Bowl 50, which was understandable, but seemed to indicate after the game to the Denver Post that he wants to come back with the Denver Broncos.

Osweiler is slated to become a free agent.

"Every single guy on this team embraced me, and that is something I think they all know how thankful I am for that, but this is the best team in the world and we have a very special group in our locker room," Osweiler told Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post.

That comment can be interpreted a few ways, and the headline (which many others around the Internet picked up) saw it as Osweiler wanting to return to the Broncos. He didn't seem to explicitly say that, but even if we assume that's true and Osweiler wants to return, it's still not that simple.

That's why Osweiler could be the most interesting player of the NFL offseason. He's in a unique spot. He put the Broncos in a tricky position.

Osweiler hasn't played enough for anyone to form a solid opinion of him. He started seven games this season. His numbers 1,967 yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions, 86.4 rating were fine. Not great, not terrible. He was also incredibly inconsistent, which is to be expected from a player with such little experience. He was benched in Week 17 and the Broncos went to Peyton Manning for the playoffs. His sample size of 305 career attempts is not enough to form an accurate idea of his value.

(AP)
(AP)

One thing that always gets overlooked is that a player's true value matters little in these conversations. Osweiler is worth whatever someone is willing to pay him on the open market. The Broncos might think he's worth a short-term deal, given his short track record. The Denver Post's story used Nick Foles' two-year, $24.5 million deal as a potential starting point for Osweiler's negotiations. OK, great. But it only matters if the Broncos are willing to let Osweiler go if someone else offers a deal beyond their value point. If the quarterback-desperate Los Angeles Rams, for a hypothetical example, offer Osweiler $15 million a year over five years, Denver's value for Osweiler doesn't matter anymore. And once Osweiler hits the open market, nobody knows what will happen.

Osweiler is an incredibly rare case. He has a second-round draft pick pedigree but has barely played, because of Manning. He did well enough in his 2015 starts that some needy team could talk themselves into Osweiler being their long-term answer. He can't really be franchise-tagged, because the Broncos will give that to outside linebacker Von Miller and the quarterback price for a franchise tag would be overwhelming for someone like Osweiler. It was about $18.5 million for quarterbacks last year, and the Broncos likely aren't investing that into Osweiler even if the tag was available. But there's enough of a supply-and-demand problem at quarterback through the NFL that there seems to be a good chance someone will overpay him if he hits free agency.

All Osweiler has to do to possibly start a bidding war is not sign anything until March 9, the day free agency begins. 

What will the Broncos do? Their options are scary if Osweiler leaves. While it's technically possible that Manning could return as the Broncos quarterback, that possibility seems remote at best. Denver will draft 31st overall, and this quarterback class isn't considered great. It's very, very rare that any great quarterback hits free agency, so good luck finding a solution there. The only other quarterback on the roster is Trevor Siemian, a 2015 seventh-round pick who hasn't thrown an NFL pass.

Osweiler's free agency could put the Broncos in a really tough spot. Even assuming he'd let them match a high offer (can we totally rule out Osweiler being privately miffed at being benched right before the playoffs?) the Broncos might be in a tough spot of knowingly overpaying an unproven quarterback or moving on and trying to defend a Super Bowl title with who at quarterback, Robert Griffin III? Sam Bradford? Siemian? It's also worth noting that the Broncos might not be privately sold on Osweiler as a top-shelf NFL starting quarterback, which would make the issue even more complex.

It wouldn't make much sense for Osweiler to sign anything less than a pretty large deal before free agency starts. He's in a great spot to cash in. His unique case will cause some anxious moments in the Broncos front office.

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!