NFL Playoff Preview: Chiefs put streak on line vs. rested Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on CBS

CHIEFS AT A GLANCE

How they got here: After one of the best regular-season turnarounds in recent history, the Chiefs, winners of their final 10 games after a 1-5 start, turned in a rare postseason shutout in the wild-card round against the Houston Texans last week, opening with a 106-yard kickoff return touchdown and not letting up. It was the first postseason win for the Chiefs in 22 years.

Key player: TE Travis Kelce. The third-year tight end’s 2015 numbers – 72 receptions, 875 yards and five touchdowns – were a slight improvement over his 2014 numbers, and both are very good for a tight end. Then last week, in his postseason debut, Kelce had a fantastic game, with eight catches for 128 yards. If the Chiefs don’t have injured receiver Jeremy Maclin (ankle), Kelce will need another big game.

Why they’ll win: Special teams and defense. Normally an area of strength for the Patriots, special teams have faltered this season, and the Chiefs have one of the best groups in the league, even before last week’s 106-yard return touchdown to open the game in Houston. Defensively, Kansas City is good at getting to the quarterback (47 sacks) and getting the ball (29 takeaways).

Why they’ll lose: The loss of Maclin. The Chiefs’ passing game was basically Alex Smith to Kelce and Maclin, as Kelce and Maclin combined for 159 catches (rest of the team combined: 151). Without Maclin, Bill Belichick and Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will focus much of the defense on stopping Kelce, forcing Smith to look to untested teammates.

Keep in mind: Smith has earned the title of game manager, generally looked at as a negative, but he will have to step up to beat Belichick and the Patriots without Maclin. No one is better at making a team one-dimensional than New England, and Kelce stands to get more attention than the Kardashians from the Patriots’ defense. Smith has made four postseason starts without an interception, and will need another clean sheet.

PATRIOTS AT A GLANCE

How they got here: New England started the season 10-0 but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of six. Injuries played a major role, with WR Julian Edelman, TE Rob Gronkowski, T Sebastian Vollmer, LB Dont’a Hightower and S Devin McCourty, among others, all missing time over the last six weeks. At full strength, which they will be close to for Saturday, the Patriots have a fast-moving offense and solid defense, keyed by the front seven.

Key player: WR Julian Edelman. He suffered a Jones fracture in his left foot against the New York Giants on Nov. 15 and hasn’t played in a game since. Without him, numbers for the Patriots’ offense and Tom Brady have been down – most notably, New England's third-down conversion rate fell from 50 percent with Edelman to just 33.9 percent without him.

Why they’ll win: The Patriots have been in this position before. As defending Super Bowl champions, New England seeks a fifth straight AFC title game appearance, and are 14-3 at home in the postseason during the Bill Belichick era. And, yeah, Tom Brady. Brady’s 21 postseason wins are not only five more than any other quarterback in NFL history, it’s also more than all but eight other franchises.

Why they’ll lose: The trenches. New England’s offensive line has incurred several injuries this season, and is expected to have Sebastian Vollmer back. But Kansas City’s defense was one of the best in the league; if players can disrupt Brady, taking advantage of the Patriots’ weakened O-line, it will likely result in some turnovers the Chiefs can take advantage of.

Keep in mind: The Patriots could view this as something of a revenge game. In Week 4 in 2014, New England went to Kansas City for a Monday night game and was smacked, 41-14, a loss that sent national media rushing for their keyboards and microphones to declare the Patriots’ dynasty over. Not only did they right the ship the next week, they went on to win Super Bowl XLIX. But showing the Chiefs last season was a fluke probably isn’t far from the Patriots’ minds.

OUTLOOK

Few teams do as well with a bye week as Belichick. He uses the extra time to self-scout, fixing whatever is ailing his team before turning their attention to the opponent; the extra week also comes in handy to get players as healthy as possible off the field.

Andy Reid and his staff deserve a great deal of credit for keeping their team together and turning things around, but Kansas City ran up on an overmatched Houston team last week. That won’t be the case on Saturday. It’s not a given the Patriots will win, but they certainly have the edge.

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