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Bowl projections, pre-Week 13 edition

For our purposes, we assume that all the favorites win. This will not happen because it never happens like that, but it’s a more consistent system than attempting to predict multiple results. First, the semifinals:

Cotton Bowl (12/31): 2) Alabama vs. 3) Michigan State

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, left, is congratulated by head coach Dabo Swinney. (AP)
Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, left, is congratulated by head coach Dabo Swinney. (AP)

Orange Bowl (12/31): 1) Clemson vs. 4) Oklahoma

Reasoning here: Alabama, Clemson and Michigan State will be favored from here on out, and with Oklahoma a favorite in Bedlam and Notre Dame an underdog against the Cardinal, the final spot works itself out. If the Irish win in Palo Alto, things could get interesting, and if Iowa wins out, they take Sparty’s spot. If Florida wins out, they take Alabama’s spot and if Clemson loses a game, things immediately get messy.

Peach (12/31): Florida State (at-large) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)

Fiesta (1/1): Iowa (at-large) vs. Navy (G5/at-large)

Rose (1/1): Stanford (Pac-12) vs. Michigan (Big Ten)

Sugar (1/1): Ole Miss (SEC) vs. Baylor (Big XII)

Going with Ole Miss as the number two SEC team, as it’s like Florida is going to finish with three losses (and potentially ugly ones, if their games against Vandy, South Carolina and Florida Atlantic were any indicators). They’ll play 11-1 Baylor in the Sugar Bowl while Navy takes the Group Of Five spot with an American championship. The Rose Bowl can’t resist pairing Jim Harbaugh against his former team while the Peach Bowl happily takes a rematch of last year’s Florida State/Notre Dame game, with the potential for some Everett Golson drama. If Florida beats Florida State, move the Gators into the Sugar Bowl and if Ohio State takes down Michigan, they likely head to the Rose Bowl.

A few notes on some teams that are not favored to win their sixth game but would make the field if they did so: If Washington wins the Apple Cup, they’re in, and same for Nebraska if they pull the upset over Iowa. Both 5-6 teams opened as slight underdogs, and the Huskies could end up a favorite depending on the status of Washington State quarterback Luke Falk. Minnesota (Wisconsin), Illinois (Northwestern), Kentucky (Louisville), Missouri (Arkansas) and San Jose State (Boise) also need upsets to reach eligibility.

An asterisk denotes a conference wasn’t able to fulfill its obligation and a floating at-large team slid into the spot. And yes, we are very close to Urban Meyer against the Gators in the Citrus.

Will Urban Meyer get to face his former team in a bowl game this season? (AP)
Will Urban Meyer get to face his former team in a bowl game this season? (AP)

New Orleans (12/19): Arkansas State (Sun Belt) vs. Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

New Mexico (12/19): MTSU (C-USA) vs. New Mexico (MWC)

Las Vegas (12/19): San Diego State (MWC) vs. Washington State (Pac-12)

Cure (12/19): South Florida (American) vs. South Alabama (Sun Belt)

Camelia (12/19): Northern Illinois (MAC) vs. Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

Miami Beach (12/21): Temple (American) vs. Marshall (C-USA)

Potato (12/22): Bowling Green (MAC) vs. Boise State (MWC)

Boca Raton (12/22): Cincinnati (American) vs. Central Michigan (MAC)

Poinsettia (12/23): Air Force (MWC) vs. Arizona* (Army)

GoDaddy (12/23): Toledo (MAC) vs. App State (Sun Belt)

Hawaii (12/24): Houston (American) vs. BYU (MWC/BYU)

Bahamas (12/24): Southern Miss (C-USA) vs. Ohio (MAC)

Sun (12/26): Utah (ACC/Pac-12) vs. Penn State (Big Ten)

St. Petersburg (12/26): Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. Western Kentucky (C-USA)

Pinstripe (12/26): Buffalo* (ACC) vs. Indiana (Big Ten)

Independence (12/26): Duke (ACC) vs. Missouri* (SEC)

Heart of Dallas (12/26): Tulsa* (Big 12) vs. Old Dominion (C-USA)

Foster Farms (12/26): Nevada* (Big Ten) vs. USC (Pac-12)

Quick Lane (12/28): Western Michigan* (ACC) vs. East Carolina* (Big Ten)

Military (12/28): Miami (FL) (ACC) vs. UConn (American)

Texas (12/29): West Virginia (Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (SEC)

Russell Athletic (12/29): North Carolina (ACC) vs. TCU (Big 12)

Armed Forces (12/29): Akron* (Big Ten) vs. Utah State (MWC)

Arizona (12/29): Arizona State* (C-USA) vs. Colorado State (MWC)

Music City (12/29): NC State (ACC) vs. Georgia (SEC)

Holiday (12/30): Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. UCLA (Pac-12)

Birmingham (12/30): Memphis (American) vs. Auburn (SEC)

Belk (12/30): Louisville (ACC) vs. Tennessee (SEC)

Outback (1/1): Northwestern (Big Ten) vs. LSU (SEC)

Citrus (1/1): Ohio State (Big Ten) vs. Florida (SEC)

TaxSlayer (1/2): Pittsburgh (ACC) vs. Arkansas (SEC)

Liberty (1/2): Texas Tech (Big 12) vs. Mississippi State (SEC)

Cactus (1/2): Kansas State (Big 12) vs. California (Pac-12)

Alamo (1/2): Oklahoma State (Big 12) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)

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