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Three keys for Wisconsin and Michigan State to pull off upsets

Jeff Eisenberg
·Senior writer

For Kentucky and Duke to meet for the national championship on Monday night, they will have to thwart the upset bids of a pair of capable Big Ten underdogs.

Ultra-efficient Wisconsin has been one of the nation's best teams all season thanks to a versatile frontcourt that is a matchup nightmare for most opponents. Surging Michigan State is peaking at exactly the right time thanks in part to the brilliant play of guard Travis Trice.

Here's a look at what the Badgers and Spartans must do to win Saturday night. Wisconsin is trying to end Kentucky's bid for an undefeated season and avenge its one-point loss to the Wildcats in last year's Final Four, while Michigan State is hoping to extend its improbable run and move one win closer to Tom Izzo's second national championship.  

THREE KEYS FOR WISCONSIN

1. Shoot well from behind the arc

What makes Wisconsin a challenging matchup for Kentucky's vaunted defense is that the Badgers start five players who are dangerous from behind the arc. Sam Dekker is 13-of-27 shooting threes during the NCAA tournament and Frank Kaminsky, Josh Gasser, Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig all shot at least 38 percent from distance this season.

Kentucky's massive frontcourt protects the rim better than any other team in the nation, but having to worry about so many shooters presents unique challenges. It forces the Wildcats' shot blockers out of the paint, which opens up driving lanes for Wisconsin. It also means slower-footed Karl-Anthony Towns and Dakari Johnson must defend all the way out to the 3-point arc, no easy feat for either of them.

Wisconsin shot a blistering 10 of 12 from behind the arc as a team in the second half of its 85-78 Elite Eight victory over Arizona last Saturday. The Badgers don't have to duplicate that percentage but they do have to take advantage when Kentucky collapses on the paint and is slow to recover getting out to a shooter.

2. Limit Kentucky's second-chance points

If Aaron Harrison's clutch game-winning 3-pointer was the biggest reason Kentucky defeated Wisconsin in the national semifinals last season, the Wildcats' offensive rebounding prowess was the biggest reason they were even in striking distance at that point. Kentucky scored 23 second-chance points against the Badgers in that game and gobbled up 11 offensive boards.

Kentucky boasts five frontcourt standouts 6-foot-9 or taller this season and ranks sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding  percentage, but Wisconsin may be a bit more equipped to keep the Wildcats off the offensive glass. The Badgers no longer start a three-guard look, opting instead for a front line of Kaminsky and Hayes with the 6-foot-9 Dekker at small forward.

3. Dekker's surge must continue

Hard as it may be to believe, Wisconsin's historically efficient offense has improved during the NCAA tournament. That's because Dekker has elevated his game, providing the Badgers with another dangerous weapon to pair with national player of the year Kaminsky.

Dekker has averaged 21.8 points per game in the NCAA tournament and shot 60 percent from the field and just below 50 percent from behind the arc. All of his many talents were on display during the West Region when he hurt North Carolina on an array of backdoor cuts, forays to the rim and put-back opportunities, then torched Arizona from behind the arc.

For Wisconsin to beat Kentucky, Dekker must remain aggressive and efficient. His ability to attack the rim off the dribble or via backdoor cuts is key against Kentucky's pressure defense, especially if the Wildcats use their best defender, Willie Cauley-Stein, to defend Kaminsky.

THREE KEYS FOR MICHIGAN STATE

1. Slowing down Winslow

The biggest reason for Duke's dominant showing in the South Region was the ascendance of Justise Winslow. The Duke forward took advantage of his superior quickness and athleticism against opposing power forwards, averaging 14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists so far during the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State is better equipped to contain Winslow than some of Duke's previous opponents because the Spartans can use their best defender to check him. Six-foot-7 Branden Dawson has both the strength and quickness to stay in front of Winslow off the dribble, but he must be sure to sprint back on defense and keep the hard-charging Duke forward from scoring in transition.

2. Containing Okafor

In the first meeting between Michigan State and Duke this season back in November, the difference in the game was Okafor. The first-team All-American center made it look easy against the Spartans in the paint, scoring 17 points on 8-for-10 shooting.

Okafor is still the focal point of Duke's offense despite an underwhelming performance against Utah and Gonzaga in Houston last week. He'll be defended by Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello, both of whom are much improved and far more confident since that first matchup.

One option opponents have sometimes been slow to exploit against Okafor is sending him to the free-throw line, where he hits only 51 percent of his attempts. Another is putting him into ball screens and forcing him to defend away from the rim, an area in which he has struggled frequently this season.

3. Stay hot, Trice

Why has Michigan State's offense been more dangerous late in the season? It starts with Trice, the sweet-shooting senior guard that Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said earlier this week was the best player in the NCAA tournament so far.

Trice has been the catalyst for Michigan State in the NCAA tournament, averaging 19.8 points per game and dishing out four assists per game. He has lit up opposing defenses on everything from catch-and-shoot threes, to pull-up jumpers, to forays to the rim.

Duke's defense struggled at times during the regular season, but the Blue Devils have been excellent in the NCAA tournament, which is probably partially attributable to matchups and partially a result of improvement from Quinn Cook as an on-ball defender. It will be Cook who will probably spend the most time defending Trice, though Tyus Jones and Matt Jones surely will have chances too.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!