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Ranking the seven contenders for the last three No. 1 seeds

Ranking the seven contenders for the last three No. 1 seeds

The race for the NCAA tournament's final No. 1 seeds takes on greater importance than usual this season for one simple reason.

All the other contenders want to be spared the possibility of having to face top-ranked Kentucky until at least the Final Four.

While the unbeaten Wildcats have all but locked up the NCAA tournament's No. 1 overall seed, the three remaining No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs entering the final week of the regular season. Below is a look at the seven contenders for those three spots in order of most likely to least likely to get one.

1. VIRGINIA (27-1, 15-1, RPI: 4, SOS: 18, KenPom: 3)


Five notable wins: at Notre Dame, at Maryland, at North Carolina, at VCU, Louisville
Losses: Duke
Remaining schedule: at Syracuse, at Louisville
Case for No. 1 seed: Even though their offense has not been as efficient since second-leading scorer Justin Anderson broke a finger in his left hand three weeks ago, Virginia has managed to keep winning and stay on track for a No. 1 seed. The Cavaliers are the only team in the nation besides Kentucky without a road loss. They've beaten four top 30 RPI teams away from home, they're 13-1 against the RPI top 100 and their only loss is against Duke in a game they controlled until the final minutes. If Virginia can win at Syracuse and Louisville this week, the Cavaliers will sew up a No. 1 seed no matter what happens in the ACC tournament. If they split this week and lose early in the ACC tournament, it could get a bit more tenuous, especially if Duke, Villanova and Arizona all win out.

2. DUKE (26-3, 13-3, RPI: 5, SOS: 11, KenPom: 8)


Five notable wins: at Virginia, at Wisconsin, at Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina
Losses: Miami, at NC State, at Notre Dame
Remaining schedule: Wake Forest, at North Carolina
Case for No. 1 seed: If the battle for the overall No. 1 seed merely came down to the best collection of quality wins, Duke might even be ahead of Kentucky. The Blue Devils have nine RPI top 50 victories so far this season including road wins at Virginia, Wisconsin, Louisville and St. John's. What has prevented Duke from wrapping up a No. 1 seed is the fact that losses to bubble teams Miami and NC State have the Blue Devils two games out of first place in the ACC. Could Duke lose the ACC regular season title to Virginia, fall in its conference tournament and still get a No. 1 seed? The caliber of its wins make it possible, but the Blue Devils would be putting themselves in jeopardy of dropping to the No. 2 line. The discrepancy between Duke's résumé and that of Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin or Kansas might not be enough in that scenario to keep the Blue Devils ahead of a league champion from a power conference.

3. VILLANOVA (27-2, 14-2, RPI: 3, SOS: 27, KenPom: 4)


Five notable wins: Providence (2), Butler (2), VCU, at St. John's, Georgetown
Losses: at Georgetown at Seton Hall
Remaining schedule: at Creighton, St. John's
Case for No. 1 seed: What gives Villanova a slight edge in the race for the final No. 1 seed at this point is that it has a greater number of quality wins than Arizona's and its losses aren't quite as ugly. Villanova is 10-1 against the RPI top 50 and boasts a three-game cushion in one of the nation's deepest conferences. The Big East champs did lose by 20 at Georgetown and in overtime at Seton Hall, but the Hoyas are a solid NCAA tournament team and the Pirates were on the verge of joining the AP Top 25 when they beat the Wildcats. Villanova should get a No. 1 seed if it wins out and it might even still get one with one more loss if one or two teams directly behind it in the pecking order also fall. The Wildcats would be in jeopardy of dropping to a No. 2 seed if they lose a game or two and Arizona or Wisconsin close strong.

4. ARIZONA (26-3, 14-2, RPI: 7, SOS: 53, KenPom: 2)


Five notable wins: Gonzaga, Utah (2), San Diego State, Oregon (2), at Stanford
Losses: at UNLV, at Oregon State, at Arizona State
Remaining schedule: Cal, Stanford
Case for No. 1 seed: What Arizona lacks in quantity of good wins it makes up for in quality. Its sweep of Utah and non-league victory over Gonzaga are better than any wins Villanova has tallied so far this season. The Wildcats' case suffers from taking three bad road losses. UNLV, Oregon State and Arizona State are all in the RPI top 100, but none of them have been in contention for an NCAA tournament bid at any time this season. To make up for that Arizona is probably going to have to beat Cal and Stanford at home, win the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas the following week and then hope someone ahead in the pecking order suffers a loss or two. A loss in the Pac-12 title game might not eliminate the Wildcats, but they would need Villanova, Duke or Virginia to implode over the next two weeks in that scenario.

5. WISCONSIN (26-3, 14-2, RPI: 6, SOS: 53, KenPom: 2)


Five notable wins: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Georgetown, Indiana, Iowa (2)
Losses: Duke, at Maryland, at Rutgers
Remaining schedule: at Minnesota, at Ohio State
Case for No. 1 seed: The quality of Wisconsin's victories doesn't compare favorably to what some of their fellow contenders have amassed, so the Badgers are going to have to pile up good wins the next two weeks to jump up from the No. 2 line. They probably need to win at Minnesota and Ohio State next week, capture the Big Ten tournament the following weekend and then see where they stand. One factor working in favor of Wisconsin is that the committee might excuse its terrible loss at Rutgers since national player of the year contender Frank Kaminsky didn't play. Another factor that might help the Badgers is motivation. If Wisconsin stays on the No. 2 line, they're most likely to wind up paired with Kentucky since the committee values geographic proximity over competitive balance and Madison is closest to the site of the Midwest Regional than any of the others.

6. GONZAGA (29-2, 17-1, RPI: 8, SOS: 77, KenPom: 7)


Five notable wins: SMU, St. John's, at UCLA, Georgia, at BYU
Losses: at Arizona, BYU
Remaining schedule: WCC tournament
Case for No. 1 seed: Gonzaga's modest strength of schedule was easier to overlook when its only loss came at Pac-12 champ Arizona in overtime, but Saturday's home loss to BYU likely removed the Zags from consideration for a No. 1 seed. They're now a modest 4-2 against the RPI top 50 and 8-2 against the RPI top 100, not nearly the number of wins some of the other teams on this list have. Nonetheless, Gonzaga still has an ironclad case for a No. 2 seed as long as it wins the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. The Zags are the only team who has beaten UCLA in Pauley Pavilion this season. They also boast quality wins over NCAA-tournament bound SMU, St. John's and Georgia. And while the WCC may not be as strong as the Big 12 or ACC, Gonzaga still won the RPI's ninth-rated conference by a whopping four games.

7. KANSAS (23-6, 12-4, RPI: 2, SOS: 1, KenPom: 12)


Five notable wins: Baylor (2), Utah, Oklahoma, Iowa State, at Georgetown
Losses: Kentucky, at Iowa State, at West Virginia, at Temple, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas State
Remaining schedule: West Virginia, at Oklahoma
Case for No. 1 seed: Even though Kansas has three times as many losses as Gonzaga or Villanova, it's still possible to make a case for the Jayhawks for a few reasons. They are No. 2 in the RPI, they boast the nation's strongest schedule and they still have a chance to sweep the regular season and tournament titles in the deepest league in the country. Let's say for the sake of argument that Kansas beats West Virginia and Oklahoma in its final two regular season games, defeats three more quality teams in the Big 12 tournament and enters Selection Sunday with a 28-6 record. Are you ready to declare that a team with 14 wins against the RPI top 50 and 20 against the RPI top 100 would have no chance at a No. 1 seed? I'm not, though I will concede that scenario is definitely a long shot. The Jayhawks must win out to have a chance and probably still need some teams ahead of them to take losses.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!