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Bubble breakdown: Vanderbilt's win could launch late-season surge
The SEC's biggest underachiever showed how good it can be when playing up to its potential.
Vanderbilt throttled first-place Texas A&M 77-60 on Thursday night, securing its first win over a Top 25 team in four years and sending a message that it's still capable of a late-season NCAA tournament push despite its previous struggles.
At 13-9 overall and 5-4 in the SEC, Vanderbilt is a quintessential bubble team, one whose NCAA tournament fate will be determined by how it plays the next five weeks. The Commodores have played a tough schedule but they don't have much to show for it, having only beaten Texas A&M and Florida among the nine RPI top 50 opponents they've faced.
What could help Vanderbilt is its upcoming schedule is favorable enough that the Commodores could build some February momentum. They face Ole Miss, Missouri, Auburn, Mississippi State and Georgia during the next 16 days before the SEC schedule stiffens once again the final two weeks of the regular season.
Vanderbilt will win all those games if it plays at the level it did Thursday.
Point guard Wade Baldwin scored 17 points and consistently attacked off the bounce and made intelligent decisions with the ball. Center Damian Jones controlled the paint at both ends with 13 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks. The shooters around Vanderbilt's two co-stars also sank open shots as Luke Kornet had four 3-pointers and Jeff Roberson sank three.
Last year, Vanderbilt was 1-7 in the SEC entering February but rallied to win eight of their final 10 league games to briefly flirt with an NCAA bid before settling for the NIT. Another late-season push like that, and the Commodores will be back in the NCAA tournament for the first time in four years.
THURSDAY'S BUBBLE WINNERS
WISCONSIN (14-9, 6-4 Big Ten): Three weeks after a deflating road loss at Northwestern left Wisconsin's NCAA tournament hopes on life support, the Badgers have staged a stunning revival. They've won five in a row culminating in Thursday night's 79-68 home victory over Ohio State. Wisconsin probably would not be in the NCAA tournament if the season ended today, but the Badgers are definitely within striking distance of the 10 or 11 Big Ten wins they'll probably need to secure a bid. The good news for Wisconsin? Four RPI top 50 victories over VCU, Syracuse, Michigan State and Indiana. The bad news for Wisconsin? A terrible loss to sub-250 RPI Western Illinois and a lethal remaining schedule rife with difficult road games.
CINCINNATI (17-6, 7-3): Cincinnati avoided a damaging loss with ease Thursday night. Guard Troy Caupain scored 18 points and forward Gary Clark added 16 as the Bearcats dusted South Florida 88-57 in a matchup between one of the American Athletic Conference's best teams and one of its worst. Near misses against Butler, SMU and Iowa State have Cincinnati on the bubble, but the Bearcats do have a pair of quality wins against VCU and UConn. If they can stack wins against the American Athletic Conference's second tier and pick off either UConn or SMU at home in a few weeks, they should be in good shape to return to the NCAA tournament this March.
UCONN (16-6, 6-3): It wasn't long ago that a 77-57 victory at Memphis would have qualified as a marquee win for UConn. Now it was merely just a game the Huskies couldn't afford to lose if they wanted to remain on track for an NCAA tournament bid. UConn has some decent wins against Texas, Michigan, Georgetown and Ohio State, but the Huskies have a trickier remaining schedule than conference rival Cincinnati. They still have a pair of games against SMU left as well as road games against Temple and the Bearcats. UConn would be wise to win at least two of those and avoid any other losses if it doesn't want to have to sweat out Selection Sunday.
Other bubble winners: Gonzaga (defeated LMU);
THURSDAY'S BUBBLE LOSERS
SAINT MARY'S (18-3, 9-2): The first out-of-state game Saint Mary's has played all season did not go how the Gaels hoped it would. They shot 34.4 percent from the field, trailed the final 14 minutes and lost at BYU 70-59. The loss drops Saint Mary's into a first-place tie with Gonzaga and also reduces its margin for error in its quest to earn an at-large NCAA tournament bid. While the Gaels have a gaudy record, only four of their victories have come against RPI top 100 opponents — Gonzaga, BYU, Stanford and UC Irvine. It would help Saint Mary's immensely if it could complete a season sweep of Gonzaga in Spokane on Feb. 20, but at minimum the Gaels probably cannot afford to suffer another loss to anyone left on their schedule besides the Zags.
UCLA (13-10, 4-6): There's no doubt who the best team in Los Angeles is this season, and it's not UCLA. Three weeks after they lost to USC by 14 points at Pauley Pavilion, the Bruins lost by 19 against the Trojans at the Galen Center. Thursday night's loss leaves UCLA two games below .500 in Pac-12 play with back-to-back road games at Arizona and Arizona State up next. The Bruins also still have games against Utah, Colorado Oregon and Cal still left after that. While UCLA does have quality non-league wins against Kentucky and Gonzaga to fall back on, it's hard to see the Bruins making the NCAA tournament without finishing .500 or better in Pac-12 play. Either UCLA has to surge late in the season, or the Bruins can start looking ahead until next season's vaunted recruiting class arrives.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
