Advertisement

Bubble breakdown: Two bad losses may be costly for Georgia

Bubble breakdown: Two bad losses may be costly for Georgia

With less than a month remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. Bubble Breakdown is the Dagger's daily look at the results that impact who's in and who's out.

When Georgia picked up its seventh victory in nine games at previously surging Texas A&M last Wednesday night, the Bulldogs appeared to be on the verge of securing their place in the NCAA tournament with room to spare.

Crazy how quickly they messed that up, isn't it?

On Saturday, Georgia lost at home to SEC bottom feeder Auburn by a point. On Tuesday night, the Bulldogs came all the way back from a 21-point deficit against SEC lightweight South Carolina only to lose at home again 64-58. Now whatever margin for error Mark Fox's had built up is gone, leaving Georgia in precarious position entering the final five games of conference play.

At 16-9 overall and 7-6 in SEC play, Georgia is likely squarely on the bubble despite an RPI of 32 entering Tuesday's game. Quality league wins against Texas A&M and Ole Miss help, but the Bulldogs' non-league victories over Colorado, Seton Hall and Kansas State are no longer as important as they once looked and the bad losses are also beginning to pile up.

Georgia's last five regular season games include a visit from top-ranked Kentucky and tricky road games at Ole Miss, Alabama and Auburn. The Bulldogs better find a way to win a few of those, or their impressive RPI won't save them from a disappointing Selection Sunday.

[Yahoo Sports Tourney Pick 'Em: Enter for a chance to win $50K]

BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE TUESDAY

Texas A&M (18-7, 9-4): The first NCAA bid of Billy Kennedy's four-year tenure in College Station is more realistic after the Aggies notched their ninth victory in 11 games. Danuel House scored 20 points and sank a pair of big free throws in the final minute as Texas A&M rallied from an eight-point second-half deficit to defeat fellow SEC bubble team LSU 68-62. While a season sweep of the Tigers will certainly help Texas A&M, the Aggies don't have many other quality wins. The best team they beat in non-league play was mediocre Arizona State  and they haven't beaten a single SEC opponent over .500 in league play besides LSU. Only one more chance remains to secure another notable regular season win — a Feb. 24 visit to Arkansas. The Aggies may need that one to avoid a nervous Selection Sunday.

Michigan State (18-8, 9-4): Even though Michigan State is closer to the bubble than it is accustomed to under Tom Izzo, the Spartans are also closer to lock status than any of the other teams mentioned here. They moved into a second-place tie in the Big Ten with Purdue and Maryland on Tuesday night with a decisive 80-67 road win against shorthanded rival Michigan. An unimpressive collection of non-conference wins and a bad loss to Texas Southern are the black marks against Michigan State, but the Spartans have made up for that in league play with victories against Ohio State, Indiana and Iowa. The only lingering concern about Michigan State is a tough finishing schedule that includes road games at Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana.

BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL TUESDAY

St. John's (17-9, 6-7): Three straight victories had rocketed inconsistent St. John's back into most brackets, but the Johnnies couldn't get the big road win they needed Tuesday night. They were never competitive at Georgetown, falling 79-57 despite a combined 34 points from Phil Greene and Sir'Dominic Pointer. St. John's began the night with a solid No. 42 RPI because of its strong strength of schedule, but a closer look at its profile reveals it hasn't beaten many surefire NCAA tournament teams. The Johnnies' two best wins are both against Providence. Beyond that, they've beaten Syracuse, Xavier, Minnesota and Saint Mary's, all decent teams but none of which are certain to make the NCAA tournament.

Texas (17-9, 6-7): If Texas falls a quality win shy of the NCAA tournament this season, the Longhorns will rue wasting a near-triple double from Myles Turner and letting a late lead slip away in Norman on Tuesday night. Oklahoma outscored Texas 13-5 during the final three-plus minutes of the Sooners' 71-69 win, and three of the Longhorns' points came on a meaningless 3-pointer as the buzzer sounded. Texas would still make the NCAA tournament if the season ended today, but its margin for error isn't nearly what you'd expect from a team that spent most of November and December in the top 10. A dearth of bad losses, a No. 33 RPI and solid wins over West Virginia and Iowa certainly help, but the Longhorns have lost to the last five likely NCAA tournament teams they've faced and still have four more games left to play against other March hopefuls.

LSU (18-8, 7-6): The team many believe is the SEC's most talented besides Kentucky continues to tumble closer and closer to the bubble. The Tigers were swept at the hands of fellow bubble team Texas A&M on Tuesday night, blowing an eight-point second-half lead and then giving up the lead for good in the final two minutes. Quality wins against West Virginia, Ole Miss and Georgia boost LSU's chances, but the Tigers' No. 53 RPI is weighed down by losses to SEC bottom feeders Missouri, Auburn and Mississippi State and non-conference foes Clemson and Old Dominion. LSU closes with five games against Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas. The Tigers could greatly use another quality win or two and they definitely cannot take anymore bad losses.

- - - - - - -

Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!