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Bubble breakdown: Texas may tumble from the top 10 to the NIT

Bubble breakdown: Texas may tumble from the top 10 to the NIT

With less than a month remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. Bubble Breakdown is the Dagger's daily look at the results that impact who's in and who's out.

A Texas team that spent most of November and December in the top 10 in the polls could somehow find itself in the NIT this March if it doesn't engineer a strong finish to the regular season.

The Longhorns lost for the sixth time in their last nine games on Saturday in Austin, falling 85-77 to Iowa State despite a combined 52 points from starting guards Kendal Yancy and Isaiah Taylor.

Texas' latest loss drops the Longhorns to 17-10 overall and 6-8 in the rugged Big 12, and a closer look at their profile reveals their situation is even more dire than their record suggests. They only have four wins all season against RPI top 100 opponents — a marquee victory at home against West Virginia, a solid win over Iowa and victories over middling Cal and UConn.

Of Texas' six Big 12 wins, five of them are against Texas Tech, Kansas State and TCU, the three worst teams in the league. The Longhorns have one more game left against the Wildcats in the season finale for both teams, but before that they have challenging road matchups against West Virginia and Kansas and a home date with NCAA tournament-bound Baylor.

It's tough to say exactly what Texas must do in its last four games to make the NCAA tournament, but it's pretty clear the Longhorns need three wins to feel secure entering the Big 12 tournament and a split to keep hope alive. No Big 12 team this century has finished four or more games under .500 in league play and still earned an at-large NCAA tournament bid.

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That the Longhorns are in this position is stunning considering all the players they have back from a team that won 24 games and reached the round of 32 of the NCAA tournament last season. Every rotation player besides reserve guard Martez Walker returned this season and the Longhorns added elite 7-foot freshman Myles Turner to an already deep, talented frontcourt.

Assessing what has happened to Texas in Big 12 play is hard because the issues seem to change from night to night.

Some of it is the strength of a league that features eight teams who have been ranked in the AP poll. Some of it is a defense that forces the third fewest turnovers per game in the nation and hasn't been as effective generating stops in recent weeks. And some of it is an offense that lacks playmakers besides Isaiah Taylor and has been hampered by prolonged slumps from Jonathan Holmes, Javan Felix and Cameron Ridley.

BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE SATURDAY

Stanford (17-9, 8-6 Pac-12): Four losses in five games had jeopardized Stanford's spot in the field of 68, but the Cardinal got back on track at home Saturday. They completed a season sweep of rival Cal with a 72-61 victory behind 19 points from Chasson Randle, 16 from Anthony Brown and a surprising 14 from Michael Humphrey. Stanford's resume no longer looks as strong as it once did since Texas has devalued the Cardinal's December win in Austin with its late-season fade, but the Cardinal would still be in good shape if it can close with three wins in four games. They host Oregon State and Oregon next week before visiting Arizona and Arizona State to close the regular season.

Pittsburgh (18-10, 7-7 ACC): Having gotten off to a 3-5 start in ACC play after defeating nobody of consequence during the non-league season, Pittsburgh's NCAA tournament hopes were flickering only a few weeks ago. The Panthers have since regained relevance, reeling off five wins in seven games culminating with a 65-61 road win at Syracuse on Saturday. Pittsburgh boasts a season sweep of the Orange and two marquee wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame, but those are the only victories over top 100 RPI teams they have all season. That's why they probably need to win at least three of their final four games to feel good about their position entering the NCAA tournament.

Xavier (17-10, 8-7 Big East): Who has helped itself more than Xavier this week? The Musketeers followed up a quality road win at Cincinnati on Wednesday by throttling 19th-ranked Butler 73-56 on Saturday afternoon. Those two wins have Xavier solidly in the field as of today. The Musketeers are on the verge of cracking the top 30 in the RPI and boast a sweep of Georgetown and good wins over Providence, Murray State and Stephen F. Austin to go along with this week's marquee victories. Four losses against sub-100 competition keep Xavier from being safe, but two wins in their final three regular season games would make the Musketeers a lock and they'd still be in pretty good shape even if they only get one.

LSU (19-8, 8-6 SEC): Had LSU not suffered three inexplicable losses to SEC bottom feeders Missouri, Auburn and Mississippi State, the Tigers would probably be in contention for second place in the league and a favorable NCAA tournament seed. Instead LSU was still trying to lock down its spot in the field of 68 at all when it hosted Florida on Saturday. A 70-63 victory behind 28 points from Jarell Martin was a big step in the right direction, even if the Tigers are still far from a lock. They have 10 RPI top 100 victories including notable ones against West Virginia, Ole Miss and Georgia.

St. John's (18-9, 7-7 Big East): The Red Storm won a home game they couldn't afford to lose on Saturday, dispatching of shorthanded Seton Hall 85-72. That keeps them right about at the cut line entering a four-game finishing stretch that will probably determine their fate. St. John's boasts a season sweep against Providence and five other RPI top 100 wins, but they also have a pair of sub-100 losses at Creighton and DePaul. All in all, it's a very middling profile in need of enhancement as the Johnnies host Georgetown and Xavier this week before finishing with road games at Villanova and Marquette.

Texas A&M (19-7, 10-4 SEC): Danuel House scored 25 points and sank seven 3-pointers to lift Texas A&M to a win it needed at South Carolina on Saturday. The Aggies closed to within a half game of second place Arkansas in the SEC, though their status on the bubble remains tenuous.  While a season sweep of LSU will certainly help Texas A&M, the Aggies don't have many other quality wins. The best team they beat in non-league play was mediocre Arizona State and they haven't beaten a single SEC opponent over .500 in league play besides the Tigers. Only one more chance remains to secure another notable regular season win — a Feb. 24 visit to Arkansas. The Aggies may need that one to avoid a nervous Selection Sunday.

Other bubble teams that won: Davidson (defeated Fordham 76-57); Colorado State (defeated Air Force 66-53); NC State (defeated Virginia Tech 69-53); Rhode Island (defeated George Mason 71-56); Boise State (defeated Nevada 78-46); Cincinnati (defeated Houston 63-53); Georgia (defeated Alabama 66-65 in OT); Ole Miss (defeated Tennessee 59-57)

BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL SATURDAY 

Saint Mary's (20-7, 12-4 WCC): The only chance Saint Mary's had of earning an at-large bid vanished on Saturday when Gonzaga rallied from a 17-point first-half deficit in Moraga. The Gaels still led by nine with seven minutes to play but got outscored 24-5 the rest of the way en route to a 70-60 loss. Saturday was a must-win for Saint Mary's because it represented the Gaels' last chance at a marquee regular season win. A split with BYU is their only victory in six tries against an RPI top 100 opponent this season. Saint Mary's could get one more crack at Gonzaga in Las Vegas, but that would come in the conference tournament title game, meaning a win would secure an automatic bid for the Gaels rather than an at-large spot.

UCLA (16-12, 8-7 Pac-12): In a make-or-break road trip for its NCAA tournament hopes, UCLA came up empty. The Bruins lost a winnable game at Arizona State on Wednesday night and fell 57-47 at seventh-ranked Arizona on Saturday night, ensuring that they will enter the Pac-12 tournament in two weeks with a 3-11 record away from home. A win over Utah and a 3-1 record against fellow bubble teams Stanford and Arizona certainly helps, but UCLA's backs are against the wall now. First the Bruins have to win their last three games at home against USC, Washington and Washington State. Then they probably have to get to at least the Pac-12 semifinals to have a realistic chance and the Pac-12 title game to feel secure entering Selection Sunday.

Dayton (20-6, 10-4 A-10): One of the strongest elements of Dayton's resume before Saturday was a lack of bad losses. That's no longer true anymore after the Flyers fell out of a first-place tie in the Atlantic 10 with an 83-73 loss at conference lightweight Duquesne. Dayton would still be in the NCAA tournament as of today as a result of its strong overall record and top 30 RPI, but the Flyers don't have enough quality wins to start throwing in a a bunch of bad losses down the stretch. Of the five top 100 opponents they have beaten so far this season, the two most notable are fellow bubble teams Ole Miss and Texas A&M.

UMass (16-11, 9-5 A-10): UMass had two chances to secure badly needed marquee wins this week. The Minutemen are in trouble now after winning neither of them. Having already had its six-game win streak snapped at Rhode Island a few days earlier, UMass rallied from a big early deficit at VCU but lost because it couldn't sustain its momentum. An arduous non-conference schedule has helped the Minutemen stay in the RPI top 40, but the problem is they didn't win enough of those games. Victories over Dayton, Rhode Island, Florida State and Boston College are credible, but do they offset a 16-11 record? Probably not.

Miami (17-10, 7-7 ACC): The Hurricanes had a chance to move up from the right around the cut line had they beaten Louisville, but they couldn't finish off the upset. Angel Rodriguez went 1-for-12 from the field and missed a potential game-winning 3-pointer, condemning Miami to a 55-53 road loss. The Hurricanes are a classic bubble team with a profile that boasts some good and bad aspects. On one hand, they've beaten Duke and they have five other RPI top 100 wins including notable ones against Syracuse and Illinois. On the other hand, their RPI is in the 60s and they have a few bad losses including an inexplicable 72-44 shellacking against Eastern Kentucky.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!