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Bubble breakdown: NC State nabs another marquee victory
With less than three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. Bubble Breakdown is the Dagger's daily look at the results that impact who's in and who's out.
NC State picked an ideal time to snap its 12-game losing streak in Chapel Hill.
The Wolfpack moved closer to overcoming a rough patch in the middle of conference play and squeezing into the NCAA tournament for the fourth straight season under Mark Gottfried with a 58-46 road win over the Tar Heels on Tuesday night.
Whereas other bubble teams are in dire need of quality wins, NC State now has three outstanding ones over North Carolina, Duke and Louisville. What the Wolfpack really are missing is wins of any kind, which reveals why they still have work to do to feel safe entering Selection Sunday.
NC State (17-11, 8-7) still has ACC games remaining against Boston College, Clemson and Syracuse before the ACC tournament. For the Wolfpack to ensure they're getting NCAA tournament bid without needing even a single ACC tournament win, they might have to win all three games. For the Wolfpack to still feel good about their position, two wins might suffice.
If any team should feel confident in that position, it's one with a history of close calls. NC State has slipped into the NCAA tournament as a No. 11 seed, a No. 8 seed and a No. 12 seed each of the past three seasons despite amassing double-digit losses each year.
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NC State should have no problem winning a couple more games if it can duplicate Tuesday's defensive effort. A typically high-scoring, fast-paced North Carolina team couldn't even crack 50 points on its home floor as the Tar Heels shot 34.5 percent from the field and only had Kennedy Meeks and Justin Jackson crack double figures.
The Wolfpack weren't especially good on offense themselves, but their backcourt bailed them out. Trevor Lacey, Anthony Barber and Ralston Turner combined for 43 points to send NC State to a crucial victory.
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE TUESDAY
LSU (20-8, 9-6 SEC): LSU avoided yet another bad loss Tuesday night. A Tigers team that has already lost to Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State performed like an NCAA tournament contender should against a bottom-tier conference opponent, avenging its previous loss to Auburn with an 84-61 victory. LSU projects as about a No. 9 or 10 seed at this point, but the Tigers aren't so secure that they can afford a late slump. They close the season against Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas. Two wins in their final three games would probably solidify their NCAA tournament bid regardless of what happens in the SEC tournament.
Pittsburgh (19-10, 8-7 ACC): Defeating Boston College won't propel Pittsburgh into the NCAA tournament, but the Panthers at least kept hope alive with a 71-65 home win. They remain on the fringes of the bubble picture and still probably need to win their last three regular season games against Wake Forest, Miami and Florida State to get in. A sweep of Syracuse and marquee victories over Notre Dame and North Carolina bolster Pittsburgh's resume, but those are the only four RPI top 100 wins the Panthers have. An early-season loss to Hawaii is also damaging.
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL TUESDAY
Texas (17-11, 6-9 Big 12): A Texas team that spent most of November and December in the top 10 moved closer to missing the NCAA tournament altogether on Tuesday night. The Longhorns lost for the seventh time in 10 games, falling 71-64 at 20th-ranked West Virginia. Texas' latest loss dropped the Longhorns to 1-10 against RPI top 50 opposition — 1-11 including a home loss to No. 51 Stanford. A dearth of bad losses helps offset that a bit, but the Longhorns are still in dire need of quality wins. The good news for Texas is chances abound since it finishes at Kansas and home against Baylor and Kansas State. The bad news is the Longhorns almost certainly have to win at least two of those games to keep hope alive entering the Big 12 tournament.
Texas A&M (19-8, 10-5 SEC): Impressive as it was that Texas A&M stormed back from a 23-point halftime deficit to get within two, the Aggies' 81-75 loss at Arkansas was still a squandered opportunity. They fell two games behind the Razorbacks in the race for second place in the SEC and wasted their last chance of the regular season to earn a quality win. While a season sweep of fellow bubble team LSU certainly helps Texas A&M, the Aggies are no better than right on the edge of the cut line because that's the best team they've beaten this year. Their last three games won't afford them chances to fix that either since they face Auburn, Florida and Alabama. Two wins is a probably essential and three would be advisable.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
