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Bubble breakdown: San Diego State escapes with crucial victory

Bubble breakdown: San Diego State escapes with crucial victory

Sometimes it seems like San Diego State's win streak when ahead with five minutes to go is sheer sorcery.

How else can you explain how the Aztecs won their Mountain West showdown with New Mexico in overtime on Saturday extended the streak to 161 in a game they trailed by five with less than 20 seconds to go?

San Diego State still trailed by three when Winston Shepard scored a driving layup with 14 seconds to go, but New Mexico controversially turned the ball over on the ensuing inbound play. Referees ruled that Xavier Adams had not established himself as out of bounds in order to inbound the ball, a call the Mountain West office acknowledged was incorrect late Saturday night because Adams had one foot down out of play.

A cold-shooting San Diego State team still needed a 3-pointer on its final possession to tie and the Aztecs got that from an unlikely source. Malik Pope scored his only basket of the night and the biggest basket of his career, a deep 3-pointer with  6.6 seconds left that sent the game into overtime and enabled the Aztecs to escape with a 78-71 victory.

The streak is a source of great pride for San Diego State (18-6, 11-0), but far more was at stake Saturday in a matchup between the Mountain West's top two teams.

The Aztecs all but locked up the Mountain West title, opening up a 3.5-game lead over the Lobos with only seven games left to play. They also took another step toward atoning for a poor non-league performance in which they only beat one of the four major-conference opponents on their schedule and suffered damaging losses against Grand Canyon, Arkansas Little Rock and San Diego.

This year's unusually weak Mountain West offers few chances for meaningful victories, so San Diego State still has more work to do. The Aztecs have to pile up as many wins as they can and then hope that a gaudy conference record helps outweigh the lack of meaningful non-conference victories on their resume.

How many more wins does San Diego State need? Steve Fisher told Yahoo Sports earlier this week that he believes the key is winning the league with room to spare.

"If we win with separation, I think it will say something," Fisher said. "If we win on the last day at the buzzer or if we tie, that's different. But if we have separation in winning the league, I think that speaks a little louder about what we've done."

SATURDAY'S BUBBLE WINNERS

GEORGE WASHINGTON (18-5, 7-3): Whatever damage George Washington did to its resume earlier this season with losses to woeful St. Louis and DePaul, the Colonials started to make up for it this week. They won three games in seven days culminating with a thrilling 72-69 road win over a VCU team that was previously unbeaten in the Atlantic 10. George Washington's upset victory propels it back into the RPI top 50 and bolsters its NCAA tournament hopes. The Colonials now have quality wins againstVirginia, Seton Hall, Tennessee and now VCU. More chances to add to that list lie ahead for George Washington. Among its remaining games include a rematch with VCU and road tests at St. Bonaventure and Davidson.

SETON HALL (17-6, 7-4): Do you know which Big East team is alone in third place behind Villanova and Xavier? Believe it or not, it's Seton Hall, which has won four consecutive games culminating in 69-61 victory over visiting Georgetown on Saturday night. The Pirates have two great wins over full-strength Wichita State and Providence and a couple of other solid victories against Creighton, Marquette, Georgia and Ole Miss. Three more league victories might be enough for Seton Hall to sneak into the NCAA tournament. Four or more would undoubtedly lock up a bid. It won't be easy though with four of Seton Hall's seven remaining games on the road and the three home games all against NCAA tournament hopefuls.

CAL (15-8, 5-5): Another home game, another win for Cal. The Bears improved to 14-0 at Haas Pavilion this season with a 76-61 rout of rival Stanford on Saturday afternoon. So why is Cal on the bubble? Because not all its games are played at home. The Bears are 1-8 away from Haas Pavilion, and that lone victory was in overtime at middling Wyoming. Cal gets two more home games against Oregon and Oregon State next week before venturing on the road to Washington and Washington State. If the Bears can win three out of four of those games, they'll be in strong position. Anything less than that, and the most anticipated season at Cal since the days of Jason Kidd will be in jeopardy of ending in the NIT.

FLORIDA STATE (16-7, 6-5): A 91-71 road win at struggling Wake Forest won't bolster Florida State's NCAA tournament resume all that much, but it does keep the Seminoles squarely among the group of teams right at the cut line. They own meaningful victories over Virginia, Florida, VCU and Clemson. The worst opponent they've lost to is a Hofstra team contending for the CAA title and in the top 100 in the RPI and KenPom. Florida State's hopes will hinge on a strong finish to ACC play. Four of the Seminoles' final seven ACC games are at home, but the road tests include Duke, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.

Other bubble winners: Saint Joseph's (defeated Fordham); Temple (defeated UCF); Butler (defeated St. John's); Creighton (defeated DePaul); Valparaiso (defeated UIC); Saint Mary's (defeated San Diego); LSU (defeated Mississippi State)

SATURDAY'S BUBBLE LOSERS

VANDERBILT (13-10, 5-5): The momentum from Vanderbilt's big win over Texas A&M on Thursday night lasted a whopping two days. Then the Commodores squandered it with a foul-plagued, turnover-laden 85-78 loss at Ole Miss on Saturday evening. Vanderbilt's inconsistency does not bode well because the Commodores are going to need to rip off a win streak the next few weeks to get back into contention for an NCAA bid. The Commodores have played a tough schedule but they don't have much to show for it, having only beaten Texas A&M and Florida among the nine RPI top 50 opponents they've faced.

BYU (17-8, 8-4): Any slim hope BYU had of securing an at-large NCAA tournament bid likely vanished on Saturday afternoon. It's WCC tournament-or-bust now for the Cougars after they fell at home against lowly Pacific 77-72. The best team BYU beat in non-league play is New Mexico, which itself will need to win the Mountain West tournament to earn an NCAA bid. The Cougars do have league wins over Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, but those are offset by damaging sub-100 RPI losses against Long Beach State, Harvard, Portland and now Pacific. BYU only has one more chance for a quality win — a home game against Gonzaga. Even if the Cougars get that one, it isn't enough.

CLEMSON (14-9, 7-4): In the span of 15 incredible days last month, Clemson secured all the marquee wins necessary to vault itself into NCAA tournament contention. The Tigers defeated Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, Duke and Miami to put themselves on the selection committee's radar despite a poor non-league performance. What Clemson needs now is to beat the teams below it in the ACC standings — something the Tigers failed to do Saturday. They lost 60-57 at Virginia Tech, their third loss this season to teams 100 or below in KenPom along with Minnesota and UMass. The Tigers would probably still be in the field of 68 if the season ended today, but they can't afford too many more losses to lesser opponents.

COLORADO (17-7, 6-5): Colorado's road trip to the state of Oregon was a total disaster. First-place Oregon blew out the Buffs by 20 points in Eugene on Thursday night and Oregon State handed them a damaging 60-56 loss two nights later. Colorado would probably be in the NCAA tournament if the season ended today, but its margin for error certainly has shrunk. The Buffs' top 30 RPI hides a resume light on meaningful wins. A victory over Pac-12 leader Oregon certainly helps, but their two other best wins are a home victory against Cal and a neutral-court win over BYU. Everyone beats the Bears at home this season and the Cougars are probably NIT-bound unless they win the WCC tournament.

WASHINGTON (15-8, 7-4): Almost four weeks after Washington lost by 32 to Arizona in Tucson, the Huskies put forth a much better effort in Seattle. They forced 20 Wildcats turnovers and turned many of them into transition dunks but still suffered a 77-72 loss. The rapid improvement of the freshman-laden Huskies is very encouraging, yet there's no denying that this was a missed opportunity. Washington needs quality to offset a pair of costly non-conference losses against UCSB and Oakland. The Huskies now venture out on the road to Utah and Colorado. Split, and they'll still be in decent position to secure an NCAA bid. Drop both, and those hopes may start to slip away.

CINCINNATI (17-7, 7-4): It's a testament to how far Memphis has fallen in recent years that a 63-59 road loss to the Tigers is cause for concern. The Bearcats missed too many shots and committed too many turnovers in the first half and then couldn't quite claw back from a 15-point halftime deficit. The sub-100 RPI loss is a damaging one for a Cincinnati team that finds itself on the bubble as a result of a series of two-point losses against quality teams. Cincinnati does have a trio of solid wins against UConn, VCU and George Washington, but the Bearcats have only two chances to add to that list before their conference tournament — home games against UConn or SMU.

PITTSBURGH (17-5, 6-4): For a team that entered the day 17-4 overall and only two games out of first place in the ACC, Pittsburgh finds itself in a somewhat precarious position. The Panthers' three most notable wins of the season have come against good-but-not-great Notre Dame and bubble teams Syracuse and Florida State. Pittsburgh had a chance to notch its first Top 25 win of the season at home against Virginia, but the Panthers proved to be no match for the Cavaliers' stifling defense in a 64-50 loss. Up next for Pittsburgh are back-to-back road games at Miami and North Carolina. The Panthers really need one of those two to solidify themselves as an NCAA tournament team.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!