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Bubble breakdown: Butler rights itself with crucial road victory
Ten days after its NCAA tournament hopes appeared to be flickering, Butler has managed to steady itself.
The Bulldogs clawed back to .500 in Big East play on Wednesday night by capping a three-game win streak with an impressive 81-75 road victory at Seton Hall.
A nine-point second-half Butler lead had been slashed to two in the final minute when the Bulldogs put the ball in the hands of senior Roosevelt Jones and had him make a play off the dribble. The 6-foot-4 forward bullied his way to the rim and banked in a high arcing runner, giving his team the breathing room it needed to escape with a key road victory.
Butler improves to 17-7 overall and 6-6 in the Big East with quality wins over Big Ten power Purdue and fellow bubble teams Cincinnati and Seton Hall. All seven of the Bulldogs' losses are against top 50 KenPom opponents with the exception of a damaging road loss at streaky Marquette.
It's possible Butler would be in the field of 68 if the season ended today, but the Bulldogs' ability to secure a bid next month will depend on how they cope with a challenging finishing stretch.
Four of their six Big East victories came against bottom feeders St. John's and Seton Hall, but now they're done with those teams. The six games left on the schedule include road games at Villanova and Georgetown and home games against Xavier, Creighton, Seton Hall and Marquette.
Can Butler get to 9-9 in the Big East against that gauntlet? It will help if forward Kelan Martin continues his torrid stretch. Martin lit up Seton Hall for 23 points and 10 rebounds, actually decreasing his scoring average to 25.8 points per game over the last two weeks.
Isaiah Whitehead had 23 of his 26 point during a sizzling first half, but his second-half silence doomed Seton Hall to a disappointing home loss. While the Pirates are still 17-7 overall and 7-5 in the Big East, their margin for error is diminishes with their inability to take care of business at home.
Four more league wins would surely get Seton Hall into the NCAA tournament. Three and a win in the Big East tournament might be enough too. But the Pirates close the season with four out of six on the road and the two home games are Providence and Xavier.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE WINNERS:
Wisconsin (15-9, 7-4): One month after a road loss at Northwestern left Wisconsin's NCAA tournament hopes on life support, the Badgers have staged a stunning revival. They've won six in a row culminating in Wednesday night's 72-61 home victory over Nebraska. The good news for Wisconsin? Four RPI top 50 victories over VCU, Syracuse, Michigan State and Indiana. The bad news for Wisconsin? A terrible loss to sub-250 RPI Western Illinois and a lethal remaining schedule rife with difficult road games. Wisconsin may need to beat Michigan at home, avoid a bad loss against Illinois or Minnesota and win at least one of its four remaining top 20 road games to feel secure about its chances entering the Big Ten tournament.
Saint Joseph's (20-4, 9-2): Is there a more under-the-radar 20-win team in America than Saint Joseph's? Quietly, the Hawks just keep piling up victories, few bigger than 84-66 road rout of fellow Atlantic 10 bubble team George Washington. How the committee interprets Saint Joseph's resume will be fascinating because it's a weird one to say the least. The Hawks have a gaudy record, but it's possible they haven't beaten a single NCAA tournament team yet. The only top 100 KenPom teams they've beaten are Rhode Island, Temple, Princeton and now George Washington. They desperately need to upset Dayton next Wednesday night in Philadelphia to feel more comfortable about their position.
Alabama (15-9, 5-6): In a development hardly anyone expected entering the season, Avery Johnson has Alabama in the hunt for an NCAA bid. The Crimson Tide edged fading Texas A&M on Wednesday night, adding another marquee win to a resume surprisingly loaded with them. Alabama owns victories against Notre Dame, Wichita State, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Clemson. Granted the Shockers were without Fred VanVleet against the Tide, but that's still a pretty impressive collection of wins. The Tide need to keep winning but they're a lot closer to the NCAA tournament picture than most folks realized entering the day.
Other bubble winners: St. Bonaventure (defeated Fordham); Vanderbilt (defeated Missouri); Michigan (defeated Minnesota)
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE LOSERS:
LSU (15-9, 8-3): How is LSU tied for first in the SEC yet still on the bubble? The Tigers were just horrendous in non-league play. They fell to Charleston, Houston, Wake Forest, Marquette, NC State and Oklahoma, putting a ton of pressure on their shoulders to be outstanding in SEC play. LSU can make the argument that it didn't have Craig Victor or Keith Hornsby for some of those early losses, but the Tigers still need to keep winning to secure a bid. Their lone marquee win came at home against Kentucky. They allowed a chance for another resume-boosting win slip away on Wednesday night when they fell 94-83 at fellow SEC contender South Carolina.
Washington (15-9, 7-5): As Washington's Pac-12 schedule has stiffened, the young but promising Huskies have fallen back to the pack. They're tied for fourth in the conference with Utah after their 90-82 road loss to the Utes. Washington still is lingering around the cut line as a result of quality wins over Texas, USC and Colorado and bad losses against UC Santa Barbara and Oakland. The Huskies' schedule gets more favorable after this weekend, but they could really use a road sweep of Colorado on Saturday night.
George Washington (18-6, 7-4): Believe in George Washington in your own peril. A few days after a terrific victory over first-place VCU seemed to signal that the Colonials were trending upward again, they undid much of that with a surprisingly one-sided home loss to Saint Joseph's. George Washington's loss leaves them with three quality wins — Virginia, Seton Hall and VCU. More chances to add to that list lie ahead for Colonials though. Among their remaining games include a rematch with VCU and road tests at St. Bonaventure and Davidson.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
