Brad vs. the Book: Stack coin on Simmons, LSU

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Tuesday's selections below: 

LSU (15-8, 8-13 ATS) at South Carolina (20-3, 14-5) – After tripping out of the blocks to a 7-5 overall record, the Tigers are suddenly atop the SEC standings at 8-2. With Ben Simmons, Tim Quarterman, Antonio Blackeny and Keith Hornsby on roster, talent has never been an issue. However, I'm convinced Johnny Jones couldn't coach the original Dream Team to a MEAC title. It's asinine this team isn't a lock for the NCAA Tournament. But with only one RPI top-50 win to its name, that's indeed the case. With few opportunities left to bolster the resume, adding another quality victory would certainly help solidify the Tigers' at-large profile. Without sounding overly cliche, this game is huge.

South Carolina's confidence is soaring after its gargantuan, and sorely needed, upset of Texas A&M in College Station last weekend. Though it sports a sparkling 20-3 record and top-25 rank, I have my doubts this it's a tourney lock. The Gamecocks' patsy schedule (No. 289 non-conf SOS) and lack of marquee Ws speak to their resume flaws. Problems aside, they're a sound defensive team that seals off the interior well and prevents second-chance opportunities. Do that, and Quarterman and Hornsby will have to convert often beyond the arc, an area the Gamecocks struggle in defensively. In that story unfolds, Simmons' unselfish side will be welcomed.

Prediction: LSU 78 (+4.5) South Carolina 77

Baylor (17-6, 5-11 ATS) at Kansas St. (14-9, 13-6)

– Bruce Weber's crew are trapped in bracket purgatory. Computer-generated measurements are extremely kind to the 'Cats, evidenced in their various overall top-40 placements. Suffice it to say, the rough and tumble Big 12, undeniably the strongest conference in the land, has greatly aided their position. Still, with only one signature win to its name (Oklahoma), K-State still has a mountain to climb to secure an at-large berth. A triumph over Baylor would get it one step closer.

This matchup is a prime example of strength on strength. Kansas St. is a staunch halfcourt-oriented defensive team that guards tenaciously. It does an excellent job of coaxing turnovers and challenging perimeter shots. Overall, the 'Cats have conceded just 0.93 points per possession. However, they're far from impenetrable.

Containing Rico Gathers and Jonathan Motely inside is paramount. Box out, and the 'Cats will add another notch to the collar. Don't and Baylor will have its way. Given Kansas St.'s No. 232 rank in defensive rebounding percentage, avenging its double-OT loss earlier this season in Waco seems unlikely.

Prediction: Baylor (PK) 67 Kansas St. 65

Iowa St. (17-6, 11-8 ATS) at Texas Tech (13-9, 9-10) – Energizer bunny Jameel McKay is still in the doghouse. Iowa St.'s best post presence remains suspended indefinitely. Despite his absence, the Cyclones should weather the storm in Lubbock, similar to what they did against a pesky Oklahoma St. team on the road last Saturday.

The scouting report on Iowa St. can be summarized in a phrase: splash kings. Georges Niang, Montee Morris, Deonte Burton, Matt Thomas and Abdel Nader comprise the eighth-most explosive offense in Division I. Each can crush you in transition. Each can slash to the cup. Each can plunge daggers from outside. 'Tech, which ranks No. 139 in three-point percentage and No. 100 in two-point percentage D, is completely outmatched on paper.

If the Red Raiders, a terrific free-throw shooting team, attack the dish, entice whistles and get Iowa St. in foul trouble, they'll compete. The Cyclones have zero depth. If not, and the visitors will push Tubby Smith's guys off the bubble, the presumed outcome.

Prediction: Iowa St. 79 (-2.5) Texas Tech 74 

Other Leans: Washington (+9.5), Butler (+2.5), George Washington (-2.5), SMU (-10)

Parlay Play: LSU (+4.5), George Washington (-2.5), Butler (+2.5)

Year to date: 79-70-3

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