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BDL’s 2015-16 NBA Playoff Previews: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
One of the wackier NBA regular seasons in history is over, for better or worse, and the two-month playoff run is set to begin. With the first round upon us, the minds at Ball Don't Lie decided to preview each series. Here's our look at the No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder and No. 6 Dallas Mavericks.
How They Got Here
• Oklahoma City: The Thunder's season started with a mixture of hope and pressure thanks to the introduction of new head coach Billy Donovan and the return of Kevin Durant from foot injuries that limited him throughout the 2014-15 season. With Durant set to become an unrestricted free agent this forthcoming offseason, the conventional wisdom was that the Thunder needed to prove themselves as a tactically diverse team with the ability to beat the likes of the Warriors and Spurs in many different ways.
It didn't work out as planned, although that wasn't necessarily a problem for OKC. Donovan's Thunder look a lot like Scott Brooks's Thunder — the offense relies heavily on Durant and Russell Westbrook, the role players rarely step outside of their prescribed roles, and the late-game offense finds the stars looking to score in isolation. As with the Brooks Thunder, though, the team was pretty darn good. OKC won 55 games, finished second in points per possession, and looked like the third best team in the conference all season. Durant came back in superstar form and Westbrook put up 18 triple-doubles in an MVP-caliber season, and the likes of Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter contributed substantially as secondary options.
The problem with these developments was that OKC looked a step behind San Antonio and Golden State all season, to the point where it's difficult to have too much confidence in the No. 3 seed in a potential playoff matchup against either team. That's largely because the Thunder struggled to win against other elite teams, though not because they were ineffective. Durant and Westbrook give every defense fits, particularly now that the latter has become impossible to defend with one player at the point of attack. For that matter, the Thunder are the only team that can even contemplate running with the Warriors for any protracted period of time.
The issue has never been talent. It's that OKC seems to lack whatever allows other teams to execute with consistency in crunch time, perhaps because Donovan doesn't have the tactical acumen of other coaches or maybe due to the way Westbrook and Durant like to take shots. Whatever the case, the Thunder had several notable losses in which they failed late, including several over a few weeks in February and March. The worst of those were collapses against the Warriors (you probably remember Stephen Curry's 30-foot game-winner) and Clippers (they finished up a comeback win on a 26-5 run). Those late-game struggles would prove problematic if they return in the playoffs.
On the other hand, OKC could have looked mentally exhausted at times this season because they experienced a great deal of off-court tragedy. The most publicized of those events was the death of Ingrid Williams, wife of associate head coach Monty Williams, in a car crash on February 10. Williams took a leave of absence from the team and will not return this season. The Thunder also have had to deal with the death of minority owner Aubrey McClendon, who crashed his car a day after a federal indictment on charges of conspiracy, and the shooting death of Demetrius Pinckney, younger brother of reserve guard Dion Waiters. Those three events took place over the span of a month and very easily could have worn on the franchise.
• Dallas: Any discussion of the Mavericks must begin on July 8, when DeAndre Jordan reneged on an agreement to join the team via free agency and returned to the Los Angeles Clippers. That decision threw the franchise's offseason into chaos, and it looked for a time as if they had tried too hard to remain relevant without considering how the team could compete on a nightly basis. Wesley Matthews signed before Jordan's reversal but was unlikely to return from his Achilles tear until December or later, Deron Williams looked washed, and Zaza Pachulia was no one's idea of a starting center. They would have been a formidable opponent in 2012, but perhaps not in 2016.
It all ended up working out pretty well. Matthews returned well ahead of schedule to play in the opener (and all but four games on the season), Williams looked reinvigorated out of Brooklyn and in the uniform of his hometown team, and Pachulia somehow experienced a late-career renaissance at 32. Add in the more certain contributions of Chandler Parsons and the ageless Dirk Nowitzki, and the Mavericks looked like a comfortable playoff team after a few months.
The outlook changed considerably in the season's last few months, when a relatively old team succumbed to several injuries and perhaps a little exhaustion. A 4-6 February led into a 5-10 March, and the version of the Mavs that enters the postseason is anything but ideal. Parsons has been out since March 18 after knee surgery and is very unlikely to return this series, and reserves J.J. Barea and David Lee could miss time with groin and foot injuries, respectively. Dallas is the weakest No. 6 seed the West has seen in some time. They owe their place to a strong start and the struggles of teams below them.
Head to Head
Four matchups all went to OKC, and not in a fashion that can give Dallas fans considerable optimism over this series.
The first game was the most competitive. A 117-114 Thunder win was tied before Westbrook made a go-ahead jumper with 63 seconds on the clock as part of a 31-point, 11-assist performance. Both teams shot better than 52 percent.
The next was the least competitive, a 108-89 finish that the Thunder led by 23 at half. All that despite Russell Westbrook's ejection in the second quarter with zero points. Durant more than covered for him with 29 points on 14 shots.
A January 23 matchup ended up closer than it probably should have been. OKC led by 17 with under eight minutes left but won just 109-106 thanks to a comeback attempt from Dallas. Parsons and Williams combined for 48 points in the loss.
The finale was the least interesting of the bunch — the Thunder controlled it the whole way in a 116-103 result. Westbrook chipped in 24 points and 13 assists to lead the way.
Likely Starting Lineups
The Thunder lineup begins with Westbrook and Durant, the most fearsome scoring duo in the league. Westbrook took on a greater share of the offensive load this season and thrived, averaging 23.5 points, 10.4 assists, and 7.8 rebounds per game in a dominant season. It's arguable that Durant was even better — he averaged 28.2 ppg and continued to make meaningful strides as a defender, facilitator, and rebounder.
The rest of the rotation can sometimes seem ineffective by comparison, although every player serves a purpose. Serge Ibaka remains a solid third scorer and matchup nightmare at both ends, but he often looks more passive than he did several seasons ago and can drift out to the three-point line to the detriment of his other talents. Center Steven Adams relishes the dirty work, and non-shooting guard Andre Roberson is almost a pure defensive specialist.
The extra scoring comes from the bench, where Enes Kanter became a Sixth Man of the Year candidate on the strength of his post scoring and offensive rebounding. His defense is very, very bad, but he's willing to put in some effort at that end. Dion Waiters is happy to shoot whenever he gets the ball and could change a game or two per series if he gets hot. Randy Foye, D.J. Augustin, and Anthony Morrow are also scoring options. It's very difficult to describe what Kyle Singler does well or poorly (or at all), but he is also present.
The Mavericks lineup will depend on injury availability, but Dirk Nowitzki is the one constant. He's as much of a matchup problem as ever and could probably average 15 ppg until he hits 50 years old. The injury to Parsons caused Carlisle to turn to a three-guard starting lineup of Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams, and J.J. Barea. Zaza Pachulia tailed off a bit as the season wore on but sets excellent screens and rebounds well.
The bench could be a problem with so many injuries. Raymond Felton and Devin Harris aged quickly but can be effective, and rookie Justin Anderson impressed late in the season as an active presence at both ends. He could see considerable time on Durant, which isn't a very nice thing to do to a rookie. David Lee is almost certainly not going to play in Game 1, but he can still score off the pick-and-roll. The emergence of Tunisian center Salah Mejri was one of the few positives of the last few weeks, although he's not likely to play a ton without a top-tier center on the other side.
Key Matchups
• Fast vs. slow: This is far and away the biggest issue in the series. Carlisle slowed the tempo way down after the Parsons injury, which throw their differences with the up-tempo Thunder into stark relief. Dallas cannot afford to get into a scoring contest with OKC and can only hope to defend them effectively by getting set early against an offense that can sometimes be too direct for its own good.
• Carlisle vs. Donovan: There may not be a bigger coaching mismatch in the first round. Carlisle is one of the sport's best tacticians and a master of wringing value from the roster via ideal rotations and lineups. Donovan is in his first NBA season and often looked overwhelmed by the tactical sophistication of this level, whether in terms of clock management or lineup choices. OKC has a clear talent advantage in this series, but Dallas can make up part of that gap if Carlisle outflanks Donovan at every opportunity.
How Oklahoma City Can Win
Donovan acquits himself well in his first series. Westbrook and Durant dominate as they know they can. At least one or two role players step up. The late-game offense avoids disaster.
How Dallas Can Win
Carlisle dominates the coaching matchup. Westbrook and Durant are merely very good. Dirk has a few vintage performances. Barea and Lee return to health quickly. The Mavericks control pace in every game.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 5 out of 10.
I consider watching Durant and Westbrook to be one of the great joys in sports, but this matchup does not figure to provide them with the challenge necessarily to push them to new heights. Dallas is limping into the playoffs and played relatively poorly against OKC this season even when the team was in better shape, which doesn't portend well for this one. If it is competitive, it'll likely be because the Mavericks muck up the flow. That's not my preferred style, and I'd rather not witness it for six or seven games. It'll probably more fun to imagine Spurs-Thunder in the next round.
Prediction: Thunder in 5.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don't Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at efreeman_ysports@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
Dan Devine also contributed to this report. Follow him on Twitter @YourManDevine.
