BDL's 2015-16 NBA Playoff Previews: Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets

One of the wackier NBA regular seasons in history is over, for better or worse, and the two-month playoff run is set to begin. With the first round upon us, the minds at Ball Don't Lie decided to preview each series. Here's our look at the top-seeded Golden State Warriors and No. 8 Houston Rockets.

How They Got Here

• Golden State: Perhaps you've heard that the Warriors won 73 games, a new single-season record. There were plenty of other milestones along the way — a record 24-0 start, a record 54-game home winning streak, winning at least 65 games in consecutive seasons for the second time in history, becoming the first team with at least 65 wins to improve on that total, and avoiding back-to-back losses for the first time in NBA history.

Yet the records don't communicate half of what was amazing these Warriors. Returning from what many (including me) considered a charmed championship season, Golden State became a better team despite (or maybe due to) dealing with more adversity than they experienced in 2014-15. Head coach Steve Kerr did not perform his on-bench duties for the first 43 games (interim coach Luke Walton went 39-4), key rotation players like Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala missed weeks at a time, and virtually every opponent gave their best effort every time out.

The Warriors were able to make up for those new difficulties with some key improvements. Most notably, reigning MVP Stephen Curry turned from one of the best players in the league into the sort of generational talent who transforms the way the game is played. Curry led the league in scoring (30.1 points per game, more than 25 percent better than his previous career-high), broke his own record for the most 3-pointers made in a season in late February (in a game where he also tied the record for most in a game on a 30-foot buzzer-beating winner), and became the first person to reach 300 and 400 threes in a season. The question isn't if he wins another MVP award — it's if an attention-seeking voter or two decides to keep him from becoming the first unanimous winner in league history.

All that would have been enough to make the Warriors a title favorite, but forward Draymond Green joined Curry by continuing his ascent to the ranks of the league's best players. Green married his established ability to guard every position on the floor with newfound brilliance as a playmaker, setting a franchise record for triple-doubles in a season and often looking more like Golden State's point guard than Curry. Add in another All-Star campaign for Klay Thompson, whose 3-point totals would set records if not for Curry, and it's clear that the Warriors have a trio of legitimate stars.

However, the thing that really makes the Warriors overwhelming favorites to repeat is their ability to focus and execute when the game is on the line. Despite claims from certain TV analysts that Golden State coasted against injured competition last postseason and haven't proven much yet, a team doesn't obliterate ostensible rivals on several different occasions without knowing how to get up for big games. They lost just once all season to an eventual top-four playoff seed and look to have major matchup advantages against all the best teams in the league.

• Houston: The Rockets clinched a playoff berth on the season's final day with a 116-81 home blowout of a Sacramento Kings team resting most of its best players. It says a lot about this season that it would have been perfectly in character for Houston to lose the game.

There is no doubt that the Rockets were the biggest disappointment in the NBA this season. Heading into the year with championship aspirations after a trip to the conference finals and with the offseason addition of point guard Ty Lawson, the Rockets opened at 4-7 and fired head coach Kevin McHale in the hopes of inspiring a listless group of players. It didn't work — interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff went 3-4 through the end of November without the boost in energy usually associated with coaching changes. Nevertheless, hope remained that Houston would eventually right the ship and return to the ranks of the West's best teams.

It never happened. The Rockets hovered around .500 all season and put together exactly one winning streak of longer than three games (it lasted five). There were moments of real impressiveness, including a Christmas win over the Spurs and a come-from-behind road victory over the red-hot Blazers in late February. Unfortunately, every good game seemed to be followed by at least one bad one that reinforced a lack of defensive effort or inability to stay interested for 48 minutes. Bickerstaff never found a lineup that worked consistently, and Lawson had his contract bought out after falling out the rotation.

So, how did such an odious group make the playoffs at all? For one thing, James Harden remains one of the top offensive players in the league — he trailed only Curry in points per game (29.0) and averaged the same number of free-throw attempts as he did in his MVP runner-up season. That was good enough to lead the Rockets to eighth in the league in points per possession, a respectable finish even if it wasn't in line with what they'd hoped for.

Still, the biggest thing that helped the Rockets this season was a dip in form for most of the teams below the top of the West. That was evident in the final week, when the Rockets dropped games to the Mavericks and tanking Suns on consecutive days but closed with wins against the Lakers, Wolves, and Kings. Iffy performances from the Jazz helped the Rockets just as much as the schedule. This is not a team entering the playoffs in fine form. They got in because of a favorable schedule and the failures of others.

Head to Head

The Warriors won all three regular-season matchups by a total of 37 points, which should give you some idea of why they're expected to sweep this series.

The first game came in Houston in the opening week, back when Lawson still had time to make good on his offseason promise to chase Curry off the three-point line. It didn't work out — Curry scored 25 points on 15 attempts in a 112-92 win the Warriors controlled from start to finish. The Rockets shot just 36.6 percent from the field, including 4-of-18 from the field and 1-of-11 from deep for Harden.

The next meeting took place on New Year's Eve, again at the Toyota Center. The Rockets managed a narrower loss — 114-110 — but that only looks promising if you ignore that Curry and three other rotation players missed the game due to injury. Thompson picked up the slack with 38 points on 16-of-27 shooting as Green ran the offense for a triple-double featuring 16 assists. The Rockets offense looked fairly solid and Harden scored 30 points, but the Warriors shot better than 50 percent from the field and led by 10 with all of 15 seconds remaining in regulation.

The final and lone contest at Oracle expressed the dynamics of the matchup better than any other. The Warriors opened with a 42-27 first quarter, after which they looked to lose interest and allowed the Rockets back in the game. Then, with the score tied entering the fourth, the Warriors turned it on again and won by 13.

In other words, a fully healthy and engaged Golden State is clearly the better team.

Likely Starting Lineups

The Warriors lineup should be familiar by now. Curry and Thompson man the backcourt as the best shooting combo the league has ever seen. Harrison Barnes occupies the wing as a versatile defender and capable scorer — he's also about to be a restricted free agent and could guarantee at least one max-contract offer with an excellent postseason. Center Andrew Bogut rarely attempts shots of any kind, but he's a key offensive player as a screener and passer as well as a terrific defender.

The key to Golden State is that none of these positional designations mean a ton. Thompson, Barnes, and Green all guard multiple positions in a defense that switches screens more often than not. That's especially the case when Andre Iguodala (or Shaun Livingston) subs in for Bogut — the so-called "Death Lineup" causes matchup problems for all types of opponents at both ends. Elsewhere, Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush contribute as offensive sparkplugs off the bench, and center Festus Ezeli would probably start for most teams. The rotation has no obvious weaknesses, although lineups without Curry sometimes struggle to get good shots in the half-court offense.

The Rockets go with Harden and the tenacious defender Patrick Beverley as guards. Beverley is nominally the point guard, but that's more about how he defends than how he runs the offense. Harden is the primary scorer and creator, to the point where it sometimes seems odd that no one else handles the ball for more than a few seconds per possession. Trevor Ariza has been one of the league's premier "3-and-D" wings for years and Donatas Motiejunas is a scoring-minded power forward. Dwight Howard is the center and the most important defender on the team. Unfortunately, though not ineffective, he's a faint echo of the player he once was. The elite defensive agility that made him a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate appears rarely, and his offensive impact is often limited to catching alley-oops. He will not be back if he chooses to opt out of his contract this summer, which the Rockets won't really mind. Reports abounded that they tried to trade him before the deadline.

The Rockets bench is very high-risk, high-reward. Corey Brewer and Josh Smith keyed Houston's epic comeback against the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 6 of their series last May, but they're capable of shooting the team out of games and playing too fast for their own good. Journeyman Michael Beasley joined the team in March after dominating in China — he's been a solid scorer but lacks virtually every other skill. Jason Terry is still around for bench shooting, as well. Perhaps the most consistent reserve is Clint Capela, a springy center who could become the starter next season. He's also just as much of a Hack-A-Shaq target as Howard.

Key Matchups

• Every single Warriors scorer vs. Houston's transition defense: The Rockets defense suffered from many sins this season, but none were as telling as their horrific inability to get back and guard the right players in transition. Zach Harper of CBSSports.com put together a post on the issue in January that explains what continued to plague them the whole season, but it's also easy enough to say that they often just looked like they didn't care. That's an easy way to get blown out against the Warriors, who exploit every potential opening for early threes, dunks, and lay-ups. A team that doesn't find Curry and Thompson in transition is in trouble.

• Patrick Beverley vs. teamwide effort: Beverley is an oddity on the Rockets in that he appears to be giving maximum effort at every moment in the game. There are many who thought that he would have helped the Rockets contain Curry in last year's Western Conference Finals had he not been injured, and he'll at least have an opportunity to show what that would have looked like even if history suggests he can only do so much to contain the MVP. What Beverley can do for the Rockets extends beyond Curry, though. His effort can serve as motivation for the rest of the group to come ready to play. After all, very little is expected of them.

• The Warriors vs. a Letdown: Golden State just accomplished something that took a great deal of focus, determination, and ability. It was also so historically notable that a playoff series against a highly flawed opponent could look like a vacation of sorts, particularly with some much-needed rest days thrown in. The greatest challenge for the Warriors in this series isn't Harden's talents or the possibility that the Rockets find some consistency, but their own ability to stay focused. A Saturday early afternoon start time for Game 1 has trap written all over it, so they'll have to bring the requisite energy from the opening tip.

How Golden State Can Win

Avoid a letdown. Keep the Rockets from gaining too much confidence early. Exploit every available transition opportunity. Don't settle for threes. Make sure not to forget about the non-Harden shooters. Force the Houston defense to move.

How Houston Can Win

Hope the Warriors are slow to get into the series. Play transition defense at a level the team hasn't shown yet this season. Get four or five dominant performances from Harden. Receive two of those randomly dominant stretches from the bench. Hire someone to fix the carbon monoxide leak responsible for this terrible season.

Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Rankings: 7 out of 10

Every point of this ranking belongs to the Warriors, the rare team that is just as enjoyable in a blowout as a tight playoff victory. Expect at least one game in this series where the Warriors fire on all cylinders and allow Curry to get some rest in the fourth quarter, and expect to enjoy it.

The problem with this series is that the Rockets are a slog even at their best. Harden soaks up possessions with all the joy of a janitor mopping linoleum, and the parade of 3-point attempts can get iffy when they all come from the same spots off the same action. Of course, that's a breeze compared to the stretches when the Rockets look like they met each other four minutes before the announcement of starting lineups.

The good news is that the elimination of Houston will register a 10 out of 10 on our scale. We cannot wait for their season to be over.

Prediction: Warriors in 4.

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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don't Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at efreeman_ysports@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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