BDL's 2015-16 NBA Playoff Previews: Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers

One of the wackier NBA regular seasons in history is over, for better or worse, and the two-month playoff run is set to begin. With the first round upon us, the minds at Ball Don't Lie decided to preview each series. We start with Toronto and Indiana.

How They Got Here

• Toronto: After a long, typically blustery and chilly Toronto summer following yet another enervating first-round loss, the Raps could have entered training camp with lids drooped, and yet they turned in their best season in franchise history.

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General manager Masai Ujiri brought the whole gang back in 2015-16 following the team’s disappointing defeat at the hands of the Washington Wizards last year, relying on internal development and role player tweaking to turn the tide. The task of standing out seemed a rather formidable one entering the season as those same Wizards, the reigning East regular-season champion Hawks, the supposedly reborn Chicago Bulls and potentially healthy Miami Heat all wanted to lay claim to the East’s second seed behind Cleveland.

Yet it was the Raptors who entered the season’s third-to-last day with a mathematical chance at the top seed in the East. That attempt fizzled out with Cleveland’s comeback win over Atlanta on Monday evening, but by the end of January Toronto had firmly established itself as the East’s clear No. 2 on the back of a versatile roster that could hit you on both ends.

The defense has relented since then, but the offense still finds its moxie in the form of leader Kyle Lowry, who famously came to training camp in the best shape of his career, on his way toward a second consecutive All-Star berth. Joining him there was DeMar DeRozan, the sort of shooting guard who would lead the NBA in 2-point attempts in a 3-point world, more than making up for that by hitting over seven free throws a contest.

Beyond there, role players abound. Major free-agent signee DeMarre Carroll struggled with injuries to his surgery-familiar right knee, but he returned for three games down the stretch and could slowly ease back into his old self as the long (we hope, right?) playoff march moves along. Veterans Luis Scola and Cory Joseph came straight out of central casting, Terrence Ross can still snipe and bench big men Patrick Patterson and Bismack Biyombo had two stellar seasons.

• Indiana: Indiana relied on a mini-blowup of sorts following the team’s playoff absence in 2015.

The squad played most of that year without an injured Paul George, while watching big man Roy Hibbert turn into an anachronism some 25 minutes at a time. The team’s coaching staff and front office stated that it wanted to go small and fast to start 2015-16, and while they succeeded in as much in terms of roster development (dumping Hibbert on Los Angeles), this hasn’t been the most consistent of seasons.

Still, the team is back in the postseason, and George turned in one of the better comeback seasons of the past 20 years: He hit for a career-high 23.1 points per game with seven rebounds, while playing in 81 games. His 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals also tied career highs.

Signee Monta Ellis gave the Pacers his typical 13.8 points on 12.6 shots, George Hill can frustrate but he does play to the maximum of his potential and made over 40 percent of his 3-pointers, while guards C.J. Miles and Rodney Stuckey can turn second and late-third quarters on their ears in ways both good and bad.

The real killers here are stalwart center Ian Mahinmi, who had a career year, and rookie Myles Turner. Mahinmi’s old man game is a welcome sight for a team that works with George at power forward for long stretches (though he doesn’t start there anymore, after weeks of chafing), and Turner (in and out of the starting lineup himself) is an absolute stud who can disrupt things on both ends.

Head-to-Head

The Raptors took the season series 3-1.

The two teams actually met on opening night, with the Raps prevailing 106-91 behind a rebound advantage against a Pacers team that started three guards, Mahinmi and George (who provided a team-leading 12 boards) at power forward. Center Jonas Valanciunas had one of his better games of the year with 21 points and 15 rebounds.

In mid-December the Pacers scored their lone win over the season against Toronto by blowing out the Raptors in Indianapolis 106-90. C.J. Miles, still starting at this point, hit all five of his 3-pointers while Paul George went 4-8 from long range. Reserve big man Jordan Hill (who has received several DNP-CDs of late) offered 20 points off the bench. The Raptors were without Valanciunas (smarting from a fractured left hand) in the loss.

Jonas wouldn’t be around on March 17 because of a short flare-up of pain in the same hand, but it hardly mattered as the Biyombo-led Raptors downed the Pacers 101-94. Biyombo destroyed Indiana on his way toward a 16-points, two-block and 25-rebound night in the win. With Mahinmi out and Turner (nine points, 10 rebounds but five fouls) still learning the ropes, Hill was overmatched and the combination of George and Ellis could not get on track (10-35 shooting).

In easily the most distressing game of the series for Pacers fans, a Raptors team that rested Lowry, DeRozan and Scola easily dispatched a full-strength Pacer club by a 111-98 score on April 8. Raptor swingman Norman Powell, starting in his 13th consecutive game, went off for 27 points on just 11 shots, nailing 14-19 from the line. Joseph hit all six of his shots for 18 points, and the loss prevented the Pacers from clinching a playoff spot.

Likely Starting Lineups

The Pacers abandoned the Paul George-as-power forward experiment long ago, and after a short time starting either Hill or Turner (once he returned from a wrist injury) at the position, they’ve settled into featuring Lavoy Allen as paint settler for now. This figures to sustain against the Raptors and the fellow floor-bound Scola, who was rested extensively down the stretch of the regular season. Rookie Norman Powell and George will take to the small forward positions alongside Valanciunas and Mahinmi for Toronto and Indiana, respectively.

In the backcourt, the Pacers work with the sometimes-steady hand of Hill (12 points, 3.5 assists on the season) and itchy trigger finger of Ellis, while Toronto counters with its two stars: the dynamic Lowry and DeRozan (DeRozan will also cross match wonderfully with Powell at times, switching to ostensible small forward).

Matchups to watch

• Toronto’s bench bigs versus Myles Turner: It’s been established by now that rookie Turner is the Pacers’ official Destroyer of Worlds off the pine, and he sent the playoffs a message by offering 28 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in only 26 minutes in the team’s playoff-clinching win over the Nets on Sunday.

Still, this is a rookie who played just one fitful year at a dodgy college program, prior to missing a healthy chunk of his first NBA season with an injury. He can be taken advantage of (not his fault, just the lack of reps), and between Patterson’s wily stretch-power forward ways and Biyombo’s size, the kid could be driven a bit batty.

• Paul George vs. DeMarre Carroll: DeRozan will open the game on George, as he and Powell basically work interchangeably at small forward/shooting. Powell is a rookie and just 6-4, though, and the Raptors don’t want DeRozan spending big minutes chasing and bumping Geroge off his spots.

Enter DeMarre, we hope, who has played just about 50 minutes of game time since Jan. 3. It might be a little too early to expect Carroll to return to his pre-surgery effectiveness, but every minute counts, and George somewhat struggled (39.6 percent shooting) in three games played against then-Atlanta Hawk Carroll during George’s last healthy year in 2013-14.

How Toronto Can Win

By frustrating the heck out of Indiana’s top-three defense by earning calls and getting to the free-throw line endlessly. The Raptors were the league’s second-best in terms of earning the darn things this season, and if Powell can shoot 19 in a single regular-season game against Indiana, think of what DeRozan and Lowry can do on national TV.

How Indiana Can Win

This seems like a silly trope at this point, but if the Pacers put the fear into them with Toronto’s third-straight first-round Game 1 home loss, we could have a series. Not necessarily a Pacer win, but at the very least a competitive series that finds Toronto having to redevelop the sort of confidence they’ve spent over six months building up.

Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 5 out of 10.

The ever-evolving Raptors, especially if the team’s defense rounds back into form, are a good time out. The games may go a little long because of all those free throws, but there will be spurts.

One can’t say the same about the Pacers: They’re the worst offensive team in this year’s postseason and they struggle to finish games. With that said: Myles Turner. Watch the guy.

Prediction: Toronto in 5.

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Kelly Dwyer

is an editor for Ball Don't Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at KDonhoops@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops