BLS Roundtable: Which surprise contender are you still buying?

Believing in a surprise team can be a risky proposition. There was a reason to doubt that club prior to the season, so why should our opinions change after a month or two of solid play?

Well, we're in July now, and we can't ignore these teams any longer. While some of these clubs will eventually fall off, they've all done enough to prove they are much better than anyone anticipated.

In order to figure out which teams will remain at the top, we brought in our experts. With the season nearly at its halfway point, which surprise contender are you buying?

HOUSTON ASTROS
I've been championing the Houston Astros most of the season and I'm not stopping now. They're not an ideal team by any means — they strikeout too much and you may not have confidence in their star-less pitching staff, but the Astros haven't showed signs of slowing yet. Carlos Correa is up and showing that he's as good as the hype. Dallas Keuchel has emerged as an ace. George Springer is playing like an All-Star. But probably the reason I'm buying the Astros the most is their division. None of the teams we expected to make a run in the AL West have done so. Given this week's news, you have to wonder what the rest of the season will look like for the Angels too. The Astros have plenty of talent, from the top of the lineup to the bullpen. They're young and, in some ways, unconventional, but that's not scaring me away. (Mike Oz)

TAMPA BAY RAYS
I can't say I fully saw this coming, but I was one of the highest on the Rays during our preseason predictions. I thought they would be better than most were predicting, and that appears to be the case. What's impressive, however, is that they are doing it with a watered down pitching staff. Alex Cobb is out for the season, Drew Smyly made just three starts before succumbing to an injury and Jake Odorizzi has missed the past few weeks with an oblique issue.

Smyly and Odorizzi should return at some point, and that will strengthen the club. The offense lacks stars outside of Evan Longoria, but they've been about league-average this year. Defensively, the club is fantastic, and that's probably the reason they've been able to get by without their horses in the rotation. That's a mixture I'm willing to gamble on going forward. Just wait to see what happens when the Rays finally get healthy. (Chris Cwik)

NEW YORK YANKEES
The New York Yankees entered the 2015 season not looking like much of a title contender but so far they've shown that they're up for a fight. As the calendar flips to July, the Yankees find themselves in the mix in a tightly contested AL East.

It starts with their lineup, which ranks second in runs behind the Blue Jays. Brett Gardner is a terrific leadoff hitter, Mark Teixeira has rediscovered his power strike, while everyone's favorite player, Alex Rodriguez, has been excellent in the middle of the order. Getting a banged-up Jacoby Ellsbury back off the DL would be a nice bonus at this point. Andrew Miller is working his way back from a forearm injury but when he's healthy, he and Dellin Betances form a nasty one-two punch at the back-end of the bullpen. Questions about a starting rotation so reliant on Michael Pineda, Masahiro Tanaka and Nathan Eovaldi are fair, but there's definitely some upside there.

And who are we kidding? These might not be your older brother's Yankees but they're still the Yankees. A big trade is never out of the question. The Bronx Bombers are going to be in this race until the bitter end and don't be surprised to see them in a playoff spot when the season ends. (Israel Fehr)

NEW YORK METS
With a healthy Matt Harvey returning and several of baseball's best young pitchers on staff, it was easy to see the New York Mets finishing above .500 for the first time since 2008. What we didn't expect was a dominant April, highlighted by an 11-game winning streak, which proved the Mets have enough to enter the postseason picture this season.

Though they've cooled off considerably over the last six weeks and are far from a complete squad, there are still plenty of reasons to buy the Mets as a playoff team and even a division winner. The historic debut of Steven Matz on Sunday is the latest beam of light. The continued emergence of Jacob deGrom, who should now be considered Harvey's equal, is another. But the real reason to buy in could and should happen this month if the Mets finally add an impact bat (or two) to their scuffling lineup. With any offense at all, they'll be a difficult team to keep from reaching the postseason, and an even more difficult team to eliminate. (Mark Townsend)

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Is it fair to call a defending division champion that got to the ALCS a “surprise” 2015 team? In the topsy-turvy and highly competitive AL East, yeah, sure. The Orioles won 96 games in 2014 before being swept by the Royals in the ALCS, but expectations weren’t as high coming into 2015. They lost AL home run leader Nelson Cruz, and Nick Markakis to free agency, Matt Wieters began the season on the DL, and Manny Machado was coming off surgery. But, so far, just about everything has gone right for the O’s. Machado has played in every game and is slashing .307/.364/.527 and Chris Davis has returned to slugging form, leading the club with 16 homers. The rotation has been good, too – even Ubaldo Jimenez – with the sixth best team ERA in the AL, and the fifth fewest runs.

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After a slow start to the season they went 18-10 in June to catapult themselves to the top of the very-tight division. For now at least, they’re healthy and firing on all cylinders. At the rate they score runs they can hang in any game, and if the rotation keeps it up they could be looking at another division title. (Ian Denomme)

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