Winterhawks begin quest for fourth straight championship appearance: WHL Western Conference playoff preview

—BY CAM CHARRON AND SCOTT SEPICH

Due to league rules, we can't just skip the first two rounds and head directly to the expected Western Conference showdown between the top team in major junior hockey's official rankings Kelowna and the top team according to Buzzing the Net, Portland.

While Kelowna and Portland are expected to waltz over their opponents, the other two series' are worth keeping an eye on, especially the 3-6 set between Victoria and Spokane which appears to be a dead heat on paper.

(1) Kelowna Rockets (57-11-4, 118 pts) vs. Tri-City Americans (29-33-10, 68 pts)

Season series: Rockets (4-0-0-0) Odds favour: Kelowna 93% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Kelowna in 5. Prediction: Kelowna in 4.

Why the Rockets should win: While the U.S. Division was the strongest of the two Western Conference divisions this season, the Rockets laid waste against Conference foes this season, lost just four times in regulation on home ice all season.

The Rockets control both top-end talent as well as depth in this series. The Rockets, somewhat surprisingly, don't have a single player on the first page of the WHL scoring leaders. They do, however, boast 7 different 50-point scorers ranging from veterans Myles Bell and Ryan Olsen to their core of big, mobile defenceman Damon Severson and Madison Bowey.

Youth is also served on this group. The Rockets got some production from a unit of 16-and-17-year-olds Rourke Chartier, Nick Merkley and Justin Kirkland, all regular contributors this season with only the rookie Kirkland falling below the 20-goal and 50-point plateau.

Kelowna, as has become a popular storyline all season, haven't built their junior hockey powerhouse thanks to having a bevy of veteran skill and a deadly powerplay. The strength of the team lies in systems, puck-possession, and quality of defence. Goaltender Jordon Cooke may be the second best goaltender in this series, but he was 4th in the WHL in save percentage (.922) this season and his matchup on the other side, Eric Comrie, plays behind a defence that gives up nearly 5 more shots per 60 minutes of play (34.3 compared to 29.1) and behind a penalty kill (86.2%) that was nowhere close to as dominant as the four-man unit of the Rockets.

It's tradition for the top seed in any junior hockey or NCAA tournament bracket to comment on not looking past the opposition in its first round matchup, but this win should be routine for Kelowna. They mauled the Ams 4-0 in the season series (albeit one game was in a shootout), out-scoring the Kennewick Crew 20-5. -Charron

How the Americans could win: In short, they won’t. Eric Comrie and his .925 save percentage give the Ams some hope to steal a game, as the ice will be tilted toward him most of the time. Even with Comrie standing on his head, a handshake line is expected after Game 4 in Kennewick.

After the team traded Connor Rankin to Calgary in January, the only real goal was to simply qualify for the playoffs, and they somewhat narrowly held off the Prince George Cougars for the eighth spot.

Brian Williams scored 36 goals this season, but he’s been the only really reliable contributor outside of Parker Bowles, who’s averaging a just over a point a game despite missing nearly half the season due to injury.

Beyond that, the Ams are a mishmash of promising young talent and light-scoring veterans. -Sepich

(2) Portland Winterhawks (54-13-5, 113 pts) vs. (7) Vancouver Giants (32-29-10, 75 pts)

Season series: Winterhawks (4-0-0-0) Odds favour: Portland 94% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Portland in 5. Prediction: Portland in 5.

Why the Winterhawks should win: With the top offence in the league facing what appears to be the weakest goaltending in the West playoffs, a series longer than four games will be an unwelcome nuisance for the defending champs.

The Hawks finished the season 29-1-0-1 over their last 31 games, when the team’s crop of world junior players returned for the stretch run and Mathew Dumba joined the team.

Portland features six players who averaged over a point a game, with five guys who scored at least 35 goals (led by Oliver Bjorkstrand’s 50). Even depth guys like Paul Bittner and Keegan Iverson topped the 20-goal mark.

Defense was a question mark this season for Portland, but when all was said and done, only five teams allowed fewer goals than the Hawks, who gave up more in each of the first two seasons it advanced to the WHL finals in this recent run. This Portland team might not be quite as good as last year’s, but the differences are fairly negligible, and the Giants probably won’t be able to make much headway toward exposing any glaring weaknesses. -Sepich

How the Giants could win: Doubtful, but it's worth noting that the Giants put together a pretty good team in a rebuilding year. It was one of the best in the WHL at controlling shots for and against, but ultimately doesn't have the goaltending to turn the team into a very popular upset pick against the powerful Winterhawks.

The Giants will live or die based on the fortunes of sophomore starter and 1996-born Payton Lee, who has been thrown to the wolves an awful lot in his young career. Lee saw the fourth-fewest amount of shots per 60 minutes among qualified WHL goalies this season (28.9) and somehow turned that into the highest goals against average (3.4). A year ago, Portland took six games to defeat its first round opponent Everett after Austin Lotz made 55 saves in the opener. That's what Lee is up against.

In the absence of Dalton Thrower, whose season ended in January after 42 games, young Brett Kulak has become one of the better puck-moving defencemen in the league, but he'll need to match the deep Portland backend to give Vancouver a chance. The Giants have a few big forwards who can push opposing defences around and have a nose for the net like Cain Franson, Jackson Houck and Tim Traber, but a lot will need to go right for the Giants to even have a chance in this series. -Charron

(3) Victoria Royals (48-20-4, 100 pts) vs. (6) Spokane Chiefs (40-26-6, 86 pts)

Season series: Spokane (3-1-0-0) Odds favour: Victoria 57%. Most mathematically-likely outcome: Victoria in 7. Prediction: Victoria in 7.

Why the Royals should win: Admittedly, this series is a bit of a toss-up. Victoria had the better regular season record, but got to play in the easier division.

Victoria is built a little like Kelowna, without any one dominant player and a mix of systems and goaltending to give the team a powerful defence and an offence you can't count out. Only Edmonton allowed fewer goals than the Royals did this season, thanks to the Royals' goaltending two-headed monster of Patrik Polivka and Collman Vollrath. Should the series go long, you might expect coach Dave Lowry to make a switch to give the Chiefs powerful top forwards a different look.

The Royals got a boost a little after the trade deadline with the return of babyfaced defenceman Joe Hicketts, a very good puck-mover for his size who improved a slumping powerplay and made life easy for the Royals six different 20-goal scorers, led by Austin Carroll and Brandon Magee. They also picked up veteran Travis Brown, who has stepped in with 15 points in his 28 games since being acquired from Moose Jaw. Those two midseason additions made the defence look a lot deeper than it did in the first half of the season, and Victoria caught fire down the stretch, going on two winning streaks since February, one seven games and the other six games.

If the playoffs are about goaltending and depth, then Victoria has the edge, even if they don't have the top-heavy talent that the Chiefs do and weren't able to match their rivals' consistency on the season. -Charron

How the Chiefs could win: Any team with a 62-goal scorer is going to have a fighting chance in any given game, and Mitch Holmberg and fellow 20-year-olds Mike Aviani and Eric Williams should be motivated to be at their best for one final playoff run.

Aviani slowed down a bit after a huge start, but still scored 38 goals. Williams had his best season as a WHL goalie, though he did fade after a tremendous start to the season.

The question for the Chiefs, then, is how will the other 17 guys who suit up contribute? If they don’t, it will be tough to score enough goals against a tight defensive team like the Royals. Adam Helewka (23 goals) is the only other guy who provided some sort of consistent output. The team’s third- and fourth-leading scorers are defensemen Reid Gow and Jason Fram, who piled up most of their points passing it to Aviani and Holmberg.

On the plus side for the Chiefs, Victoria’s not a dynamic offensive team, meaning that Holmberg and Aviani could throw the team on their backs and singlehandedly win games (provided Williams helps out).

The Chiefs can also point to a 3-1 record against the Royals, and a 39-13-4 record during the regular season against teams not named Portland or Seattle (Spokane went 1-13-2 against the Hawks and T-Birds), as evidence that this might be a more even series than it may appear. -Sepich

(4) Seattle Thunderbirds (41-25-6, 88 pts) vs. (5) Everett Silvertips (39-23-10, 88 pts)

Season series: Thunderbirds (5-3-2-0) Odds favour: Everett 55% Most mathematically-likely outcome: Everett in 6. Prediction: Seattle in 7.

Why the Thunderbirds should win: While Seattle does have home-ice advantage for the series, the T-Birds and Silvertips tied in the standings and have generally been heading in opposite directions. Seattle is probably the underdog heading into the series, as the Birds have somewhat stumbled to the finish line (4-6 in their last 10).

While the numbers seem to support a Silvertips win, the T-Birds can take this series by using their size to wear down an Everett team that has been battling injuries since December. Seattle likes to beat people up, whether that’s through big hits along the boards or by dropping the gloves, and always tests the fine line between clean, aggressive play and undisciplined lunacy. When the Birds are on the right side of that line, they are tough to beat. Last year, the T-Birds took a 3-0 series lead against heavily-favoured Kelowna before the Rockets rallied to win the series. But the Rockets left that series so decimated by injury and fatigue that they were promptly swept by Kamloops in the second round. Without the gap in talent it faced last year, Seattle should have a big edge if this becomes a battle of attrition.

Recent numbers, however, don’t look promising for the Birds. Goalie Taran Kozun, who was otherworldly during a big run by the T-Birds in January and early February (9-1 with four shutouts in his first 10 starts since coming over in a trade with Kamloops), has come back to Earth a bit (3.76 GAA, .900 save pct. in seven March games). Roberts Lipsbergs and Branden Troock, the team’s top goal-scorers, combined for seven goals in the last six weeks of the season. Mathew Barzal and Ryan Gropp are still inconsistent rookies. Seattle’s most reliable offensive player is defenseman Shea Theodore, who leads the team in scoring (79 points). -Sepich

How the Silvertips could win: Everett at one point looked dead in the water, but the Tips have earned points in their last 13 games (11-0-0-2) to rally from seventh in the conference to fifth. Back in early December, Everett had the best record in the league but went off the rails due to a combination of world junior absences (well, Mirco Mueller), injuries and even suspensions (goalie Daniel Cotton and forward Darcy DeRoose were essentially kicked off the team).

It wasn’t until the last month that some semblance of the Tips team that busted out early this season returned to the ice. And yet, the team still isn’t quite all the way back. Kohl Bauml is done with a leg injury. Tyler Sandhu just returned after missing almost two months. Jujhar Khaira is suddenly questionable heading into the series, as is goalie Austin Lotz, who was mysteriously removed from the last regular-season game in Portland.

Ultimately, the Silvertips have to stay relatively healthy and continue to execute Kevin Constantine’s well-known neutral zone clog. The Tips do have the most offensively dynamic player in the series in Josh Winquist (47 goals, 93 points), but otherwise have only one 20-goal scorer (Carson Stadnyk had 23). -Sepich