Portland takes control of crowded U.S. Division and BTN’s Dynamic Dozen

In our first Dynamic Dozen rankings of the season published last week, a pair of U.S. Division teams were ranked 1-2. This week, all five of the American teams from the Western Hockey League are concentrated within our top 14. Add Kelowna into the mix, and you have the makings of a Western Conference that's going to be very difficult to win come playoff time, with as many as six high quality teams in legitimate contention.

Still (I hate to use the qualifier "it's early" so much, but...) it's early. The Winterhawks knocked off Spokane 3-1 on Saturday to cement their spot on top this week, and that's where we'll begin. An explanation for the rankings can be found below.

1. Portland Winterhawks, WHL (.640 RPI, +2.4 SRS, +1) — Portland have won 11 in a row, making their record more "Portland-like" after starting just 3-3-1. Though Spokane boast the WHL's leading scorer, Portland have No. 1 and No. 2 in the league, Nic Petan and Oliver Bjorkstrand, in the "non-overage" category. Both were taken in the most recent NHL Draft in their first year of eligibility, and it's become a little ridiculous how well this team can replace elite talent when it leaves to the NHL.

Not only do the Winterhawks have a five-point cushion on every other WHL team, but they've also played the strongest schedule out of every team in the nation. They'll face unranked Tri-City, Victoria and Regina this week.

2. Guelph Storm, OHL (.597 RPI, +2.5 SRS, +1) — Not to be outdone, the Guelph Storm can win a franchise-best 11th straight game Thursday in London, which isn't as daunting of a task this year as it was in previous years (although the Knights did recently end the Erie Otters' extended win streak). Can any team actually shut down their speed? The Storm have already scored 95 goals on the season, the most in the Ontario Hockey League by 17, and coach Scott Walker seemed to indicate after Sunday's 3-1 comeback win over Sudbury that they're a group that can score at will. So far, they have, but sustainability is key.

3. Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, QMJHL (.592 RPI, +1.7 SRS, +1) — The 15-1-2 record is impressive, but RPI is none too impressed by the Armada's competition to start the season. They already have seven wins against the teams in the bottom five of the QMJHL standings to start the year, and they'll be tested when they start a difficult four-game homestand Thursday. They'll play Drummondville, Chicoutimi, Rouyn-Noranda and Québec all between now and next Wednesday.

Still, tough to find fault with a team that's done pretty much everything asked of them thus far. They're one of the stingiest defensive groups in the nation as well: goaltender Étienne Marcoux sees just about eight fewer shots against per 60 minutes than the average QMJHL starting goalie, if you're looking for reasons why Marcoux leads the Q with a 1.89 goals against average.

4. Spokane Chiefs, WHL (.591 RPI, +1.8 SRS, -3) — You would have assumed the Chiefs would drop, not just from their loss to Portland, but they also fell on Wednesday against Kamloops. Spokane reminds us of Tri-City's excellent team from a couple of seasons ago, in that they're being led by a trio of excellent overage players. Eric Williams in net has provided elite-level puck-stopping, while Mitch Holmberg and Mike Aviani are 1st and 5th in the WHL, respectively, in points.

5. Kelowna Rockets, WHL (.571 RPI, +2.0 SRS, —) — Madison Bowey was named team captain on Friday ahead of his team's games against Prince George, and responded with a three assist performance that night, and scored the winning goal Saturday night.

The Rockets open a four-game home stand, with their three games this week being against Red Deer, Prince George and Edmonton. They'll probably need to sweep those games to keep their spot in the rankings, as it seems likely that their strength of schedule will lower.

6. Drummondville Voltigeurs, QMJHL (.568 RPI, +1.1 SRS, +7) — The Voltigeurs came back for an overtime win against Blainville-Boisbriand on Sunday, but it's the rematch this week on the road that will really go a long way towards helping the Volts pull closer to the Armada in the standings. Drummondville already lost 4-1 earlier this season on the road against Blainville-Boisbriand.

One of the better stories this week comes from the production of the 30th overall pick in the recent Import Draft, Georgs Golovkovs. He's on a four-game point streak and has taken over the top spot in rookie scoring.

7. Erie Otters, OHL (.567 RPI, +1.8 SRS, —) — Saw their 11-game win streak end in London in a bad way, losing 6-2. Still, that was a day after beating the Niagara Ice Dogs 6-0.

This upcoming stretch for the Otters will be a challenge. They play six times, all at home, between now and November 19th including games against Oshawa, Sault Ste. Marie and Guelph. Their only experience against either of those top OHL teams came in the first game of the year where they lost a close 4-3 game on the road.

As Neate noted last week, the team has the best powerplay and penalty kill records in the OHL. In fact, they have a +15 goal differential in special team situations already this season.

8. Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL (.559 RPI, +0.6 SRS, +4) — The team's leading scorer Mat Barzal didn't record a point in three games this past week, but Steve Konowalchuk is probably more concerned about the state of his defence that has given up ten goals in the last two games. Somehow the team's RPI rank increased despite the team going 1-2-0 over its last three games, but that just goes to show what schedule strength can do.

Here's why defence is a concern: Seattle starting goaltender Danny Mumaugh has seen 36.3 shots against every 60 minutes of play, which is the fifth highest in the league. The Thunderbirds are the only team above .500 whose starter has seen more than 35 shots against per 60.

9. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL (.559 RPI, +1.4 SRS, -3) — There's some pretty fun things you can do with special teams data. Erie have the best powerplay and penalty kill units in the OHL, while the Soo have the 4th best powerplay and 3rd best penalty kill.

That said, the Greyhounds are +14 in special teams situations, which is just one back of the Otters. How come? Because the best way to kill penalties is to not take any, and the Greyhounds have taken just 3.9 penalties a game, which is tops in the league while Erie have taken 4.7. Each game, the Greyhounds get 1.7 more powerplay opportunities than shorthanded opportunities, so they don't have to be as successful in those situations to come out ahead. The Otters are on pace for a +60 goal differential in special team situations this year... and so are the Soo, simply because they draw enough calls (and take fewer penalties) slanting the numbers in their favour.

10. Gatineau Olympiques, QMJHL (.551 RPI, +0.8 SRS, -1) — The third of three teams from the Telus West Division (the QMJHL is only represented by West Division teams in the Top 12) had a pretty tough schedule this week. They beat Halifax and Victoriaville, but fell to division rival Drummondville 6-3 Saturday night.

Calgary first rounder Emile Poirier returned from his one-game suspension with a goal Thursday night, and then a one-goal, one-assist game against Drummondville. He's been one of the most consistent players in the Q all season.

11. Oshawa Generals, OHL (.550 RPI, +0.8 SRS, +6) — Currently on a modest four-game win streak, which includes quality wins over Mississauga and Kingston. That helped bring the Generals from 17th last week to 11th this week. The Generals get four players represented at home for the third Super Series game, and the worry for the visiting Russians is that they get posterized by 2012 Philadelphia first rounder Scott Laughton the way a poor Peterborough Pete did here. Laughton is already 14th in OHL scoring despite playing four or five fewer games than anybody else ahead of him on the list and if he can continue close to a two points-per-game pace, should be among the leaders very shortly.

12. London Knights, OHL (.549 RPI, +1.8 SRS, +6) — The Knights ended the Erie Otters' prolonged win streak on Sunday thanks to holding an excellent offensive team to fewer than 30 shots. The Storm are a tougher opponent in that regard and London will have a chance to halt that win streak at ten. Dakota Mermis suggested that the Knights' defence has found a rhythm. They conceded 49 shots to the Otters back on October 25 but just 29 on Sunday.

The not as dynamic but still very distinguished dozen — 13. Tri-City Americans, WHL (.549, -3); 14. Everett Silvertips, WHL (.536, -3); 15. Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (.534, -7); 16. Baie-Comeau Drakkar, QMJHL (.527, —); 17. Swift Current Broncos, WHL (.526, +6); 18. Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL (.524, +10); 19. Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL (.519, +11); 20. Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, QMJHL (.517, -1); 21. Val-d'Or Foreurs, QMJHL (.513, -1); 22. Calgary Hitmen, WHL (.511, -8); 23. Rimouski Océanic, QMJHL (.509, +4); 24. Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL (.508, +11).

Hot team — Brandon Wheat Kings, up 15 (45th to 30th).

Cold team — Charlottetown Islanders, down 14 (15th to 29th).

Nowhere to go but up — Shawinigan Cataractes (.400).

An explanation on rankings — Buzzing The Net uses Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) with a recency factor. RPI combines a team's record with the strength of its opponents to produce an overall rating. Our method also gives more weight to recently played games. Shootout wins and losses are classified as ties, for philosophical and practical reasons. Simple Ranking System (SRS), a ranking which combines goal differential and strength of schedule, is used as a complement. All three CHL leagues are considered equivalent in quality.

(All rankings through play on Nov. 3.)