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OHL could see another scoring spike, although it likely won't be as steep as the Tavares/Stamkos era

Mancina was the backup on the Storm's OHL championship team (Terry Wilson / OHL Images).
Mancina was the backup on the Storm's OHL championship team (Terry Wilson / OHL Images).

The law of supply and demand is why Matt Mancina is a Guelph Storm — Stormer? Stormian? for now but likely not for long.

One overarching theme to this OHL season ought to be the offensive environment, sorry-not sorry for wonking it up. The league is relatively rich in 17-year-old offensive stars, from Connor McDavid to the next level of the prospect pantheon with Ottawa's Travis Konecny, London's Mitchell Marner, Erie's Dylan Strome and Sarnia's Pavel Zacha (can we get also get Windsor's Luke Kirwan in there too even though he's two years out from reaching the NHL draft floor?). On the other side of the coin, the OHL is entering the second year of the great European goalie embargo.

Point totals are just one poor-math-student's data point, but they are cited often. Point being, if one of the league's draft-year dandies puts up a whack of points, it will be important to put it in the context.

The OHL, fortunately, does provide a breakdown of individual power-play and short-handed points. Another element that one should be informed of is basically that, yes, scoring in 2013-14 (AKA Year 2 of the Connor McDavid era) was up over the prior year. With only one 19-year-old NHL-drafted goalie in the 20-team loop, Mississauga's Spencer Martin (No. 63 overall to the Colorado Avalanche in 2013), it could go up again.

Quickly and superfically, here's a look at 5-on-5 scoring from 2004-05 through '13-14:

OHL scoring

5vs5 G

5vs5 G/tm

% change

2005

2618

131

 

2006

2412

121

-7.9

2007

2793

140

16.4

2008

2750

138

0.3

2009

3065

153

8.9

2010

3138

157

2.6

2011

3315

166

4.9

2012

3033

152

-5.8

2013

3102

155

-0.1

2014

3238

162

4.3

Granted, no one can hypothesize with certainty how the season will play out. There definitely seems to be a correlation (if not causation) between the overall depth in goaltending and offensive stars and how many goals are scored in a junior league, where it's easier for outstanding individual talent to win out. For instance, that huge jump in 2006-07 came when the OHL had three NHL No. 1 overall picks, Patrick Kane, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos, all active at the same time.

The dip in '11-12 and '12-13 could be called the John Gibson or Petr Mrazek effect. No fewer than 10 regular goalies in the OHL in that '11-12 season represented their country on its national junior team either that season or in a future season. That would be tough to duplicate with (a) the ban on import goalies and (b) the Quebec and Western leagues also boasting some fine netminders (the goalies at Hockey Canada's summer development camp were a 2-2 split between between the Q and Dub).

Anyway, it's just some food for thought. The goaltending stock has been drawn down. Along with Mississauga's Martin, three 18-year-olds were tapped in the last draft: Plymouth's Alex Nedeljkovic (No. 37, Carolina Hurricanes), Sault Ste. Marie's Brandon Halverson (No. 59, New York Rangers) and Niagara's Brent Moran (No. 115, Dallas Stars). Being drafted is hardly the only validation for a junior hockey goalie, seeing as the counterparts in the final, Guelph's Justin Nichols and North Bay's Jake Smith, were both 18-year-olds whose style and size doesn't fit the NHL's prototype.

That is why Guelph hasn't moved Mancina, who was a capable backup for its Memorial Cup runner-up team, yet. It can set the market in a season where goaltending seems to be at a premium.

Meantime, if scores go up and stay up, don't look too surprised. That's not to say it will happen.

 

Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Follow him on Twitter @neatebuzzthenet.