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How a lockout season could affect the CHL; a short primer

There is no road map for how this round of NHL labour pains might affect junior hockey. Instead, there is merely some rough idea about the contingencies that will be invoked if the big league's current standoff goes past the Sept. 15 deadline. (The latest talks were brief.)

It's impossible to keep track of every 20-year-old presumptive junior graduate who expected to be turning pro this fall or teen who could have been NHL-bound under normal circumstances who is affected. It's a long list — Chicago Blackhawks-drafted goalie Mac Carruth in the WHL, Ottawa Senators prospect Jean-Gabriel Pageau in the Quebec League, to name but two for the sake of brevity — and everyone's attention span is finite.

The Vancouver Giants' situation illustrates the uncertainty. Their No. 1 defenceman, David Musil, is 19. Jordan Martinook, a 40-goal scorer last winter, is 20 and just got drafted by the Phoenix Coyotes but hasn't been signed. That has Giants GM Scott Bonner braced for the chance of losing such linchpins either briefly or permanently in mid-season.

From Elliott Pap:

"Say the NHL starts up in November, I assume that the kids who are under contract and have a chance to make the big club, like a David Musil, might get called in for a shortened training camp. But I'd be shocked if they came down and grabbed everyone they drafted."

" ... The scariest scenario for us could be if, let's say, [overage centre and Phoenix Coyotes draft choice] Jordan Martinook starts the season with us, then the NHL starts up Dec. 1 and some of Phoenix's players in the American League go back up to the NHL," Bonner said. "Then Phoenix has to fill their Springfield roster and we might lose Marty. That would be a tough blow. Here's your first-line centre ... see you later. So there is definitely some grey area there." (Vancouver Sun)

There are so many permutations at play. The Western and Ontario leagues each allow teams to carry four overages while dressing three for a short time early in the season. Ideally, that would reduce the possibility of a team cutting a player to keep a spot for a lockout-affected should-be first-year pro, who could then end up being moved up to the AHL. That's not to say it would not happen.

From Gregg Drinnan:

Or consider the case of the Kamloops Blazers. They have four 20-year-olds on their roster at the moment — D Austin Madaisky, F Jordan DePape, F Brendan Ranford and F Dylan Willick.

Of those four, only Madaisky is tied to an NHL team; in fact, he has signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

So what happens if there is a lockout and Madaisky ends up back with the Blazers? Obviously, they would keep him as he would be one of the WHL's top defencemen. So let's say they keep him and trade one of the three forwards.

... let's say the lockout ends on Dec. 1 and the Blue Jackets decide to assign Madaisky to their AHL affiliate, the Springfield Falcons.

All of a sudden, Kamloops is out its top defenceman and a top-six forward who was traded away to make room for Madaisky. (Taking Note)

This would probably affect some contending teams more than those which are rebuilding, but it could play hell with the standings.

No doubt the quality of play in major junior would benefit from having a few 20-year-olds who should be turning pro and a few otherwise NHL-bound teens stay a little bit longer. You'd have to be completely anhedonic not to want to see a premier WHL forward such as Los Angeles Kings prospect Jordan Weal playing in junior unexpectedly. Attendance will jump since NHL fans will need their hockey fix. That is is not really the proper pro-prospect stance. Players should move up when they deserve to advance. Meantime, there will be a ripple effect on junior whenever the NHL settles its dispute.

Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Contact him at neatesager@yahoo.ca and follow him on Twitter @neatebuzzthenet.