Week 9 Fantasy Football Power Rankings: Patriots will keep rolling

Let’s put a fantasy spin on the this week’s action by ranking the games in expected order of point-producing relevance using the over/under totals from Las Vegas, specifically as listed at VegasInsider.com.

Note: Dollar values in parentheses denote a player's current week price in the Yahoo Daily Fantasy game. It is displayed for point of reference.

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The Big Five

1. Redskins at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m., O/U 52: Kirk Cousins ($30) is 6-for-6 with five TDs on third-and-goal passes. A normal rate is about 40 percent. Cousins is only 6.5 yards/attempt this year and thus the prospects for 40 or so attempts due to game flow isn’t that enticing. Let’s give him 250 yards and a TD. LeGarrette Blount ($23) has five doorstep carries (inside the three) and has three TDs. Overall teams are 95/219 in these situations (43.4%). I don’t think anything can stop Tom Brady ($48) and the Patriots passing game this year. Rob Gronkowski’s ($33) market share is disappointing in catches (about 20 percent of the team’s passing game) but he’s at 27 percent in yards and 35 percent in TDs.

2. Bears at Chargers, Monday, 8:30 p.m., O/U 49: Should be an aerial show so play your guys accordingly. There is a lot of uncertainty at receiver for the Chargers due to injury. The sneakiest play: Dontrelle Inman ($10). Philip Rivers ($45) has been fantasy gold and will adapt vs. a mediocre Chicago passing defense. Alshon Jeffery ($29) is as good a bet as any receiver to be the No. 1 fantasy asset going forward. If you are struggling because you owned him while he was shelved for all those weeks, a very solid two-for-one is likely doable for you.

3. Giants at Bucs, Sunday, 4:05 p.m., O/U 48.5: Shapes up like a great game for Mike Evans ($27) given how the Giants’ pass defense performed last week, but how much of that was due to the Saints? Evans is a volatile player and you are best off just ignoring the prior week. His weeks don’t correlate well and I put most of this on the very uneven QB play, even from snap to snap never mind game to game. The Giants running game is in flux. I will still bet on Orleans Darkwa ($12) rest of season. Pass protection now is holding down his snap count.

4. Tennessee at Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m., O/U 48: Scott Pianowski and I talked at length about Drew Brees ($40) on our Breakfast Table Podcast. I said here last week, again, that Brees’ yards per attempt and passing volume were predictive of future scoring and that his past scoring (and relatively few touchdowns) were merely descriptive (meaning due mainly to random factors). The correction came all at once. But Brees can be penciled in for 40 attempts and 315 passing yards a week, giving him estimated 2.5 passing TDs. You want this in your lineup. Go cheap at WR among Brandin Cooks ($19), Willie Snead ($20) and now even Marques Colston ($13). The Saints’ defense is a horror show but it’s impossible to recommend any Titans.

5. Raiders at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m., O/U 48: So good to see this rivalry energized given that this game may decide a wild-card spot. The Raiders and Derek Carr ($34) are bettable now for sure. The Raiders’ defense is representative but I would not fear it. Play all your Steelers without hesitation even though Ben Roethlisberger gave us cause for concern by looking so gimpy on his bad knee. Will that get better while he plays? Seems unlikely but of course he can just learn to play better through the pain. 

[Week 9 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Flex | Tight End | All Positions]

Other Games

6. Packers at Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m., O/U 46.5: The Packers’ offense is just not right. I thought Aaron Rodgers ($43) would make things happen even against the Broncos last week but there was nothing. Now the Panthers are the opponent and Carolina is the Denver of the NFC. Who is Josh Norman going to shut down? And can anyone else step up against the rest of the Carolina defense? Very doubtful. Cam Newton is averaging over nine rushes per game but has no weapons other than Greg Olsen ($26).

7. Broncos at Colts, Sunday, 4:25 p.m., O/U 45: Peyton Manning ($31) threw the ball great last week, though the TDs were not there. The volume seems unlikely to ever be there with this defense. The long national nightmare for Andrew Luck ($35) owners continues in Week 9.

8. Eagles at Cowboys, Sunday, 8:30, O/U 44.5: Seeing these two quarterbacks on national TV should trigger a class-action suit. Jordan Matthews ($20) is not even playable. The Eagles’ one very good player on offense, Ryan Mathews ($17), gets hardly any snaps. Dez Bryant owners should have wished he just sat/fully healed until Tony Romo returns since Dez ($30) is hard to trust at this point.

9. Falcons at 49ers, Sunday, 4:05, O/U 44.5: This is a rough game. The 49ers’ defense is 31st in yards allowed per pass play. But the Atlanta volume should be low given that San Francisco can’t score and now has Blaine Gabbert ($20) at QB. 

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Defensive battles

10. Dolphins at Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m., O/U 44: So much for the Dolphins finding their offense with their new coach. The Bills get Tyrod Taylor ($34) back but had the worst three-and-out rate with him. This is a game to avoid. 

11. Jaguars at Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. O/U 42.5: The Jets can’t generate any pass rush. I can see the Jacksonville passing game being at least average and the Jets with Ryan Fitzpatrick ($37) playing should have a solid day on offense. Jacksonville somehow has the No. 1 defense in limiting yards per rush. The implied points for the Jets in this game is about 25. 

12. Rams at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. O/U 39.5: Play Todd Gurley ($38). Analysis! Gurley is way better than the current Adrian Peterson ($31), who has converted one of seven doorstep carries for scores (inside the opponent three). He has minus-1 yard on all those carries combined. Gurley is arguably the best rookie RB ever, given he’s the only one with four-straight 125-rushing games and they have come in his first four starts, as I noted last week at Wall Street Journal Sports.