Week 13 Starts/Sits: Giant letdown

With fantasy playoffs on the line for many owners this week, it's time to turn our attention away from the gluttonous distractions of Thanksgiving and focus on optimizing fantasy lineups for the all-important weekend. With that in mind, here are some players that I think look better or worse than usual this week:

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STARTS

QB – Cam Newton, Car at Min –  The biggest reason to be optimistic about Newton on Sunday is that he's coming off a bye, a chance to rest and rehabilitate the obvious aches and pains he was dealing with before heading into break. And while he was clearly struggling before the time off, he did post an average off 299 passing yards and 2.0 TD passes in his past two games. The Vikings have been a solid fantasy pass defense, but they allow the fourth-highest opponent completion percentage and 13th-highest QB rating. And with expectations that Newton will be healthier this week than he's been in a while, I'd expect him to contribute more with his legs than we've seen in the past month. I believe he'll finish as a top 10 fantasy QB for his third consecutive game.

RB – Tre Mason, StL vs. Oak –   Mason ranks just 25th among running backs in fantasy points per game the past month, but he's received the fifth-most rush attempts in that span. And against an Oakland defense that has allowed 10 running backs to reach a total of at least 15 fantasy points this season, volume is going to pay healthy dividends for Mason owners in Week 13.

RB – Dan Herron, Ind vs Was –   Washington is not exactly a great matchup for Herron, as the Redskins allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. But I'm more focused on Herron's role, which certainly looks like it'll be similar to that of the injured Ahmad Bradshaw. And Bradshaw was a RB1-level producer in this potent offense, thanks to an average of roughly five targets per game, which he converted into 38 catches, 300 yards and six TD grabs (only Matt Forte had more fantasy value in the passing game among the RB position). Herron caught five passes last week, and his role in that aspect of the offense should continue to be ample. Like Bradshaw, Herron should be able to push double digit fantasy points on a regular basis, no matter who he is facing.

WR – Kenny Stills, NO at Pit –  I was expecting Stills to be asked to step up his game with rookie Brandin Cooks out for the year, and he didn't disappoint last week, catching eight passes for 98 yards against Baltimore. Cooks, at 81.5%, led all receivers (min. 50 percent of the team's snaps) in catch percentage (the percentage of targets caught), but Stills (79.6%) is second on that list. In other words, he's been more than a one-trick (deep ball) pony in the Saints passing game. He's a well-rounded receiver with very good size and speed. And I wouldn't hesitate to plug him in this week against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the WR position since Week 7.

[Week 13 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Kicker | DST]

WR – Jarvis Landry, Mia at NYJ  –  Landry, who has four touchdowns in his past four games, is an excellent bet to find the end zone yet again this week. Not only have the Jets allowed the most TD passes per game, but Miami also leads the league in trips to the red zone per game (4.9). That's been a big reason why Landry is finding the end zone on a regular basis. The rookie possesses good hands and route running ability, which should keep him on QB Ryan Tannehill's red zone radar this week.

TE - Jordan Reed, Was at Ind –  I'd be very tempted to role with Reed this week if he's cleared to play (hamstring). He's practiced in full all week, so there's a strong feeling he'll be on the field come Sunday. And if he is, the set up is ideal for fantasy production. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, and the potent Indy offense should force the Redskins to have to throw often. With Colt McCoy taking over at QB, that's also good news for Reed, who averaged six catches and 46 yards in two games previous with McCoy at the helm. McCoy's passing game sweet spot is the short-to-intermediate range, so the upside for Reed is obvious if he plays. For all those owners like myself that are scouring the TE waiver wire this week, Reed is one of the better dice rolls you're likely to find.

SITS

QB – Eli Manning, NYG at Jac –  Eli, coming off a 338-yard, 3 TD effort against Dallas,  may seem like a no-brainer start this week against a Jacksonville defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to the QB position. But the problem I have with the Giants' signal caller is that, while he is 14th overall at QB in fantasy points per game, he's just 23rd in fantasy points per pass attempt, meaning his value is dependent on (high) volume (something that he's had plenty of lately  thanks to a Giants defense allowing nearly 27 points per game). The Jaguars are last in the league in scoring (14.6 PPG), which doesn't set up well for Manning to throw it 40-plus times (as he's done in his past four games). I envision only a modest fantasy line from Eli this week, something like 225 passing yards and a couple TD passes, which is serviceable, but not a QB1-worthy performance.

RB – Ryan Mathews, SD at Bal  –  Mathews is coming off a 113-yard, TD effort against the Rams in Week 12, so it could prove difficult for his owners to bench him this week. But the matchup with the Ravens demands pine time for the Chargers' back, unless you honestly feel his talents will transcend a matchup against a team that has yet to let an opposing running back reach 70 rushing yards. I certainly don't.

RB – Mark Ingram, NO at Pit  – Ingram's had a nice little run from Week 8-10, topping 100 rushing yards in each of those three games. But the good times have come to a crashing halt the past two games (combined 94 rushing yards, 0 TD, 2.76 YPC). Against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards, Ingram is an iffy bet to finish as a top 20 fantasy RB this week (especially with Pierre Thomas, who split the workload evenly with Ingram last week, back in the mix).

WR – Julio Jones, Atl vs Ari –  Jones ended his seven-game scoring drought with a TD last week, but he finished with just 68 yards, the fifth time in his past six games that he has failed to reach 70 yards. In that span, his catch rate (percentage of targets caught) is barely above 50 percent. Given the faulty connection between Jones and QB Matt Ryan and the matchup with an Arizona defense that has been among the best in fantasy over the past month against the pass (held Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson to an average of 6.7 fantasy points in that span), Jones is set up to leave his owners wanting yet again.

WR – Mike Evans, TB vs Cin –   Evans has been the No. 2 fantasy wideout since Week 4, and he's scored a TD in each of the past four games. Clearly he's a tough one to sit with fantasy playoffs on the line for many of his owners this week. Still, if I had other decent options at WR, I'd definitely consider placing Evans on my bench this week. He's facing a Cincy defense that has allowed the fewest touchdown passes (11) and the fewest pass plays of 30-plus yards. Evans has been a deep-ball dynamo, with his nine catches of 30-plus yards landing him at third in the league. Last week's TD saved Evans' bacon, as he had just 47 receiving yards (the fourth time in six games with Josh McCown at QB that Evans has finished with 55 yards or less). If Evans doesn't score a TD this week (and, again, Cincy has allowed the fewest pass TDs), I think he'll finish outside the top 30 fantasy receivers.

TE -  Larry Donnell, NYG at Jac –  As noted in the Eli Manning blurb (above), I expect the Giants passing game to produce modest totals this week. And I don't envision Donnell factoring much into that bottom line. Jacksonville ranks third in the league in QB sacks, and that should keep Donnell busy in a block-heavy role this week. He's finished with 26 yards or less in five of his past seven games, so if the set up isn't ideal (and I don't think it is), you certainly can't expect Donnell to deliver for his owners.