Week 11 Fantasy Over/Unders: Oh Danny Boy, the Pats, the Pats are calling

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 11.

Yahoo DFS Bargain Bin. What cheaply priced QB/RB/WR/TE will turn the biggest profit in Week 11? 

Brad – BROCK OSWEILER ($20). Low-dollar starting QBs are the bee's knees, especially those tied to a pair of Pro Bowl wide receivers. Many will fear the unknown, but Osweiler is blessed with sneaky athleticism, a strong arm and better-than-advertised intermediate touch. He's hungry and ready to prove he can man the ship this week and beyond. Chicago has shown considerable improvement in recent weeks, but I suspect the towering passer delivers at least a 250-2 line. Achieve that and it would more than justify the bottom-shelf price.

Andy – DANNY AMENDOLA at $16 offers a guaranteed profit, basically. He's looking at double-digit targets each week going forward, with Julian Edelman sidelined. We can debate his talent level relative to Edelman, I suppose, but the targets and catches are pretty much guaranteed. Not a bad price for a high-volume receiver in the league's top-scoring offense.

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy: $10 could win you $50K in our $350K contest for Week 11]

Scott – DANNY AMENDOLA ($16). He's certainly not the full Edelman, but he's close enough for our purposes. It's going to take a week or two before the DFS price catches up to Amendola's upgraded role in the New England offense. (Some other reccos: Danny Woodhead, Demaryius Thomas).

Liz – CHARCANDRICK WEST ($22). The dude touched the ball twenty-seven times in Week 10. And he managed to rack up a whopping 161 total yards and two scores against what is arguably the league’s best defense. In fact, West did better against the Broncos than any other RB so far this season. Come Sunday he’ll face a Chargers squad that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Brandon – JAY AJAYI ($11). I love the near-rock bottom price for a RB that has a good chance to get 10 carries on Sunday against the fourth-most generous defense to opposing RBs (Dallas). Ajayi is getting over 8 YPC on his first 11 totoes of his NFL career, and that kind of success is likely to be rewarded with an uptick in workload.

Dalton – CHARCANDRICK WEST ($22). He's averaged 25.0 touches over the past three games, when he's totaled 412 yards and four touchdowns. West is the centerpiece of the Chiefs offense and should be viewed as a top-five fantasy back yet continues not to be priced nearly as such. He faces a Chargers defense this week that's allowed the most fantasy points to opposing backs this season.

Conversely, what player, at any position, are you giving the stink eye to in Week 11 DFS? 

Andy  – I'm gonna pass on ANDY DALTON at $35, thanks. He's facing a rough road matchup at Arizona, yet he carries a higher price than Cam ($34), Ryan ($30), and various other tempting options.

Dalton – DEANDRE HOPKINS ($32). He's the second highest priced wide receiver despite likely being shadowed by Darrelle Revis and having T.J. Yates throwing to him. Moreover, Hopkins missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury, so we are looking at a banged up player in a tough matchup tied to a backup QB. No thanks.

Scott  – I can't remember the last time I ranked A.J. GREEN ($31) as low as I currently have him, but the numbers haven't been there. He's getting pushed around by some corners, and he'll probably see plenty of Patrick Peterson this week. I'm also fading all Packers in DFS until we get the prove-it week.

[Week 11 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Flex | All Positions]

Liz – A.J. GREEN ($31). After getting shutdown by Johnathan Joseph on Monday Night Football, I’d like to think Green would bounce back Sunday evening. Given, however, that he’s likely to draw Patrick Peterson and acknowledging the other weapons available to Andy Dalton, it’s hard to pay up for the Bengal in Week 11.

Brandon – A.J. GREEN ($31). Sorry, I just can't bring myself to veer from the consensus here. Green has not exactly been the color of money this season, finishing no better than 29th among fantasy WRs in six of the nine weeks that Cincy has played, so far. Lining up opposite Arizona shutdown CB Patrick Peterson on Sunday, I can see another WR3-ish performance in the Cards.

Brad – RANDALL COBB ($27). Limburger putrid of late, Cobb ranks outside the WR top-50 in fantasy points per game since Week 4. His inability to get consistently open is one of the primary reasons why Green Bay's offense has stalled. This week matched against top-of-the-line slot corner Captain Munnerlyn, who has given up a 65.9 QB rating to his assignments, Cobb will again underwhelm. A final tally around 5-55-0 is in my forecast.

Tony Romo, in his first game back in eons, total standard Yahoo fantasy points (1 pt/25 yards passing, 4 pts/pass TD) in Miami 19.9. 

Andy – Sure, I'll take the OVER. He's returning from an injury that shouldn't have any lasting impact, so don't fret about that. He's also facing the NFL's No. 20 pass defense, a group that's allowed 17 TDs through the air and 255 yards per game.

Scott – UNDER. It's important to stay grounded with initial expectations when a player, even a name player, returns off a substantial absence.

Brandon – OVER. Miami's defense has been generous to fantasy QBs, Dez Bryant is three weeks back from injury and Romo is coming off a collarbone injury, not exactly as concerning as a shoulder, knee or back would be. I think he hits the ground running (throwing?).

Doug Martin, who's slipped in recent weeks, combined yards at Philly 89.5. 

Scott – UNDER. Philly's defense is staunch against just about everything, and Martin is stumbling around at 3.17 YPC over his last three starts. If the Bucs face a major deficit, we might see more Charles Sims in the second half.

Brandon – UNDER. To put it bluntly, he's sucked these past few weeks, averaging just 3.2 YPC and failing to score a TD against the likes of Dallas, the Giants and Atlanta, all three ranked among the 13 most generous in fantasy to opposing RBs. Against the fifth-most stingy defense in fantasy to opposing RBs, I don't expect Martin to suddenly break out of his slump.

Liz – UNDER. Martin hasn’t put forth a 100-yard rushing effort since Week 7 and hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5. In fact, he’s averaged just 3.1 YPC over his last three games. The usually staunch Eagles’ run defense has been leaky as of late, but Charles Sims’ presence in the passing game and Jameis Winston’s successful goal line plunges have put a cap on Martin’s opportunities.

Rookie Stefon Diggs, who failed to crack 50 yards in consecutive games, receiving yards at home versus Green Bay 79.5.  

Liz – OVER. The Vikings may be running the second most rushing plays and the second fewest passing plays in the league, but Green Bay has allowed an average of 122 receiving yards to No. 1 wideouts over their past four outings. Diggs earns his money after the catch, and I think he breaks off a long run against a Packers defense that’s not used to be on the field so much.

Brad – OVER. Yes, he's sloughed the past couple weeks, but game flow and increased dependence on Adrian Peterson explain the sudden drop-off. In a game with plenty of high-scoring appeal, I suspect Diggs gets back on track. Seven wide receivers have surpassed the proposed numbers against the Pack this season. Diggs adds to the list, possibly topping 100 yards.

Scott – OVER. The Packers have struggled against No. 1 wideouts, and this might be a week where the Vikings have to pump air into the football and throw it. If and when that happens, we know Diggs is the preferred option.

With Big Ben, Drew Brees and Eli Manning on bye, what under-owned QB fills the void best: Alex Smith (at SD), Mark Sanchez (at TB), Brock Osweiler (at Chi) or Jameis Winston (at Phi)? 

Brandon – MARK SANCHEZ. He's was a top 15-level fantasy QB in his substantial playing opportunity last season and I would expect him to be able to deliver in a similar manner in his '15 starting debut on Sunday against a Tampa Bay defense allowing a 102.5 QB Rating, third-highest in the league.

Liz – MARK SANCHEZ. The Bucs’ defensive front is getting after QBs, as evidenced by the three sacks they put on Matt Cassel in Week 10. But Mark Sanchez, as bad as he may be, has proven to excel in Chip Kelly’s offense, averaging 277 yards per start in 2014. He’ll make a bunch of blunders, but given a week to prepare in addition to his rapport with Jordan Matthews, Sanchez could have a 285-yard and 2 TD outing in Week 11.

Scott – MARK SANCHEZ was a starter for Philly for the second half of 2014 (Weeks 9-16), and he finished as the No. 9 fantasy quarterback over that span. Obviously Jeremy Maclin is no longer here, but I'll take that sample to market. The Bucs rank 24th in opponent-adjusted pass defense.

Pick a Packer. Who has more fantasy points (.5 PPR) in Week 11 at MIN: Randall Cobb or Davante Adams?

Brad – ADAMS. His recent catch rate is Mike Evans-disastrous, but it's hard to dispute the workload (31 targets). Likely to draw Xavier Rhodes, a corner who's conceded six touchdowns this year, Davante Swing sings a sexy slow jam. I'm banking on 70-plus with a touchdown.

Dalton – COBB. I actually have them ranked back-to-back this week, so this is a toss up for me. But I'll give the slight edge to the player with the longer (and superior) track record. It's pretty crazy Adams got 3.8 YPT on 21 looks at home against the Lions last week.

Andy – I'll take COBB, because he's the superior player, capable of lining up anywhere. But I don't dislike Adams, just for the record. He's coming off a weirdly quiet 21-target week, but you have to like the workload.

With ageless wonder Matt Hasselbeck under center, Frank Gore standard fantasy points in Atlanta 10.9. 

Andy – OVER, slightly. Meh. Gore is gonna do Gore things. It's hard not to like the workload over his last two games (54 touches), and the match-up isn't impossible. But no one wants to read about Gore, so let's keep things moving...

Dalton – OVER. Gore totaled 54 touches the previous two games before last week's bye and should continue to see a bunch of work with Hasselbeck now taking over QB duties. The Falcons have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to opposing backs this season, which are the second most in the NFL.

Brad – UNDER. Hassy to be at least serviceable, but it's very possible Dan Quinn stacks the line and dares the fossilized QB to beat him vertically. That's no bueno for Gore. Atlanta has allowed only 3.56 yards per carry to RBs. His final line has 65-75 yards and no TDs written all over it.

Danny Amendola, a highly sought after waiver add this week, receptions against the Bills 8.5.  

Andy – UNDER, by 0.5. He can have a great fantasy day and still not reach nine receptions. I like him a lot, but this isn't a safe number to project for any player.

Dalton – UNDER. I'm really high on Amendola with Dion Lewis and now Julian Edelman out, ranking him as my No. 15 WR this week. But nine catches is a season's pace of 144, so the safe bet here is the under, as I say Amendola records eight grabs in Week 11.

Brandon – UNDER. I have him down for seven catches, so I think he'll still be money for PPR purproses. But I'm going to bet against most anyone (outside of Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins or Antonio Brown) getting nine catches in a game.  Brad Evans should have given this question to himself as he's the one predicting a 10-catch repeat for Amendola.

Fill in the blank. _________, under 50-percent owned in Yahoo leagues, will have fanatics racing to pick up after Week 11 (Any position).  

Dalton – ERIC EBRON is owned in just one third of Yahoo leagues, but that number will rise considerably after he has a big game against an Oakland defense that's yielded an NFL-high 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year.

Liz – KENNY BRITT. Yeah, this is a super long shot, but I wanted to alert avid fans to a potentially developing situation. Newly installed QB Case Keenum isn’t afraid to threaten defenses deep. Britt, listed as the team’s No. 1 WR, exists as the Rams lone deep threat. Offensive Coordinator Frank Cignetti has proven to be a creative play caller who might just want to spell Todd Gurley on occasion and put the ball in the air. If Keenum and Britt can get something going St. Louis may have more fantasy goodness to offer than the rookie RB and Tavon Austin.

Scott – BRIAN HOYER draws the New Orleans giveaway in Week 12, making him an outstanding play if his concussion issue is cleared. Maybe grab some Nate Washington while you're there.

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