Shuffle Up: J.D. Martinez, the real deal

The assignment on the docket is outfielders. What's happened to this point is merely an audition. How should we rank the Yahoo-eligible outfielders, 5x5 value, if the season started right now?

A few rules. Catcher-eligibles who also qualify in the outfield are ignored. I don't rank anyone in the minors - you can decide what they're worth to you. And while I do rank injured players, I'm not going to debate those ranks. It's not my back, my wrist, or my surgery, and I've found over the years that almost everyone is far more optimistic about long-term injury returnees than I am.

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The dollar values are unscientific, and merely provided as a tool to compare the players at the same position (I wouldn't suggest you use them to compare players at different positions). Groups of players at the same price are considered even.

If you have respectful and detailed disagreement, I'm all ears, below and on Twitter (@scott_pianowski).

Game on.

$30 Mike Trout
$29 Bryce Harper
$28 Andrew McCutchen
$24 Justin Upton
$22 George Springer
$22 Jose Bautista
$22 Brett Gardner
$21 Ryan Braun
$21 A.J. Pollock
$20 Starling Marte
$20 Charlie Blackmon
$20 Adam Jones
$19 J.D. Martinez
$19 Carlos Gomez
$18 Yoenis Cespedes
$18 Joc Pederson
$17 Hanley Ramirez

The Wait-For-Proofers sure missed the boat on Martinez. His 2014 emergence, fueled by a change in mechanics, has been validated with 74 terrific games this year. It’s another case in favor of appreciating what a player can do well instead of looking for potential problems.

Martinez didn’t command the strike zone particularly well last year, walking about six percent of the time and striking out 26 percent of the time. This year, the numbers are similar - walks up a smidge, strikeouts also up a little bit. But the way the ball reacts when Martinez does make contact, who cares?

The average MLB hitter makes hard contact around 28-29 percent of the time. Martinez was at 43.3 percent last year, and he’s at 40.8 percent for 2015. Over the past calendar year, only Miguel Cabrera and Giancarlo Stanton have higher hard-hit percentages. And over the same period, only eight batters have more home runs than Martinez’s 34.

The pop is certainly legit. And while it wasn't reasonable to chase last year's .315 average, Martinez should be able to post a solid number there, in addition to three strong numbers in the production categories.

Planet Hanley is one of the most difficult calls for a fantasy owner to make right now. He's dealt with hand, back, knee and shoulder problems over the last two months, and after a tremendous April, not much has gone on the board (from May 1 to current, we're looking at .278/.324/.396, 25 runs, five homers, 16 RBIs, two steals; that makes him the No. 113 5x5 hitter over that period).

The Red Sox are just six games out in the AL East, so perhaps they can get back into the race. But if Boston isn't playing meaningful games in September, will it make sense to push Ramirez to the finish? Hell, will he push himself? I'm always cautious with injury-nagged players, especially when they're tied to a team that might not be in contention. (To a lesser extent, this partially explains my cautious price on Braun - and you know how I usually handle players who are currently on the DL. Let someone else expect the world.)

I’ve received a bunch of unsolicited Gardner trade offers during the year, most of them lowballs. This ignores one rule of thumb: if a player is in the midst of a career year, the one guy surely aware of the story is the fantasy owner, enjoying the ride. You can’t buy low in this pocket, unless the owner in question outsmarts himself and starts to imagine a pumpkin risk that isn’t really there. In the case of a fairly-established player like Gardner, there’s no reason to fear monsters under the bed.

Okay, Gardner’s .364 BABIP is a little higher than expected, though he’s entitled to a better-than-average hit rate given his line-drive profile and plus speed. His career mark is .325 and he posted a .342 hit rate in 2013. The power is in line with what he posted last year, and he’s always been someone capable of stealing 30-40 bases in any season if the interest grabbed him.

I don’t think anyone expects Gardner to continue to product like a Top 12 player, but he should be a Top 20 outfielder barring injury, with a reasonable chance to stick in the Top 8-12 at the position. A versatile player is a beautiful thing, especially when he’s parked atop a loaded lineup like New York’s (the Yanks, somewhat quietly, are second in the majors in runs).

$16 Lorenzo Cain
$16 Yasiel Puig
$16 Billy Hamilton
$16 Nelson Cruz
$16 Mookie Betts
$14 Jay Bruce
$14 Michael Brantley
$14 Jason Heyward
$14 Carlos Gonzalez
$13 Cameron Maybin
$13 Billy Burns
$13 Josh Reddick
$13 Ben Revere
$12 Curtis Granderson
$12 Ben Zobrist
$11 Christian Yelich
$11 Alex Gordon
$11 Kevin Pillar
$11 Matt Kemp
$10 Chris Carter
$10 Denard Span
$10 Kole Calhoun
$10 Brandon Moss
$10 Adam Eaton
$10 Dexter Fowler
$10 Yasmany Tomas

Brantley and Puig are two more players I'm treading carefully on, concerned about how healthy they may or may not be.

Brantley continues to control his at-bats like a boss (look at the dreamy K/BB rate), but there's been no power for a month and a half. You get the idea his back isn't right. I'm already looking forward to the over-correction discount that I suspect we'll have available to us in 2016, but Brantley was a Wallet Player for me entering the year, so I'm looking at a notable loss there.

Puig's had a similar year in LA, posting a strong K/BB ratio and solid average, but it's been without much power (he's also 0-for-2 on the bases). I'm not really concerned about some of the noise surrounding Puig's mercurial personality; he's shown the ability to block out distractions and produce between the lines. I also suspect the Dodgers realize what's at stage with Puig's role on the club, and won't do anything short-sighted or spiteful. But if Puig's hamstring and hand aren't right, how much category juice can we realistically expect?

You think of Granderson getting pull-happy, looking to punish mistakes, but he’s actually gone the other way more often this year, posting his highest opposite-field rate in seven years. He’s also sitting on the highest walk rate of his career. There are countless problems with the Mets offense, but Grandy is someone New York should be able to count on.

Kemp is swinging more often this year (both out of zone and in zone), but it hasn’t been that big a deal - his contact rate has gone up as well, his highest mark in six years. But the connections are rarely going for extra bases - note the .370 slugging percentage. A perfect 7-for-7 on the bases takes out some of the sting, but I have little confidence in Kemp returning to star level or even OF 2/3 level. It’s a good case of the name brand carrying far more value than the actual production.

$9 Gregory Polanco
$9 Chris Colabello
$9 Steven Souza
$9 Josh Harrison
$8 Torii Hunter
$8 Leonys Martin
$8 Brock Holt
$7 Randal Grichuk
$7 Shin-Soo Choo
$7 Andre Ethier
$7 Will Venable
$7 Joey Butler
$6 Avisail Garcia
$6 Melky Cabrera
$6 Gerardo Parra
$6 Rajai Davis
$5 Kevin Kiermaier
$5 David Peralta
$5 Colby Rasmus
$5 Carlos Beltran
$5 Michael Taylor
$5 Chris Young
$5 Marcell Ozuna
$5 Mark Trumbo
$4 Alex Rios
$4 Michael Cuddyer
$4 Austin Jackson
$4 Nick Markakis
$4 Anthony Gose
$4 Preston Tucker
$4 Marlon Byrd
$4 Logan Morrison
$4 Ben Paulsen
$4 Chris Parmelee
$4 Eddie Rosario
$4 Gregor Blanco

I've been having fun with the Butler story, but the K/BB rate has been in the red all along, and the Rays haven't been starting him of late. Pumpkin Risk is currently set to orange . . . Trumbo could be entering the Therapeutic Drop Zone. He’s slashing a scary .151/.184/.205 since joining the Mariners, with three walks against 21 strikeouts. Did Seattle actively chase after this trade, or did it let the Snakes talk the Mariners into it? Trumbo looks like someone who could be out of the league in his early 30s . . . Joey Gallo was given a modest price before his Tuesday demotion. If you're going to strike out 44 percent of the time, a slugging percentage of .448 isn't going to cut it. The Rangers are in the thick of it, they need bats they can rely on right now . . . Steve Pearce, Jimmy Paredes, now Chris Parmelee - the Orioles seem to have some sort of magic pixie dust when it comes to these low-expectation players and journeymen. I realize Parmelee was a first-round pick in his draft class, but that was eight years ago and he was selected out of high school; his ordinary minor-league profile never chased him onto prospect lists as he climbed the ladder. Nonetheless, if the O's give Parmelee a little leash, I'll do the same. Maybe he'll get a chance to take a regular post and run with it. Baltimore could use consistent power at the outfield corners.

$3 Alex Guerrero
$3 Juan Lagares
$3 Travis Snider
$3 Seth Smith
$3 Brandon Barnes
$3 Alejandro de Aza
$3 Chris Coghlan
$2 Angel Pagan
$2 Cody Asche
$2 Kelly Johnson
$2 Brandon Guyer
$2 Odubel Herrera
$2 Mark Canha
$2 Clint Robinson
$2 Ichiro Suzuki
$2 David DeJesus
$1 Dustin Ackley
$1 Ryan Raburn
$1 Michael Bourn
$1 Ezequiel Carrera
$1 David Murphy
$1 Grady Sizemore
$1 John Mayberry
$1 Jeff Francoeur
$0 Melvin Upton

Courtesy Injury Ranks - Not For Debate

$16 Jacoby Ellsbury
$15 Giancarlo Stanton
$13 Hunter Pence
$9 Matt Holliday
$8 Norichika Aoki
$6 Josh Hamilton
$5 Corey Dickerson
$5 Jorge Soler
$3 Wil Myers
$3 Jayson Werth
$3 Delino DeShields
$3 Jacob Marisnick
$2 Byron Buxton
$2 Ender Inciarte
$2 Carl Crawford
$2 Khris Davis
$2 Ryan Zimmerman
$1 Michael Morse
$1 Martin Prado
$1 Desmond Jennings
$1 Coco Crisp