Rookie Rewind: Examining the fantasy relevance of the 2015 draft class

Last year’s rookie class was brimming with talent. Accordingly, fantasy footballers were treated to a smorgasbord of both capability and bankability. Could it be that we were a tad spoiled?

While the regular season is still a week away, this year’s crop of rookies seems to have underwhelmed. Below I breakdown this past spring's top ten drafted offensive skill position players and their fantasy relevance moving forward.

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Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccanners
Lauded for his football IQ and confident swagger, Winston easily caught the eye of a franchise desperate for aptitude under center. Handed a buffet of talent even more drool-worthy than a platter of crab legs, the Florida State product was expected to lead the Bucs to respectability.  Fans of the virtual game hoped that the seemingly fearless passer would elevate the offense, giving both receivers and the team’s hyper-athletic tight end a boost in value.

While Winston showed well in the spring, he’s been up and down throughout the preseason. Over three exhibition outings, the rookie has averaged a 48.9 completion percentage. To be fair, his offensive line isn’t doing him any favors, but he’ll need to work on his accuracy in order to become a more consistent passer. His value in redraft leagues is nil, though given an enviable strength of schedule, he could be a match-up dependent daily play.

The assumption that Winston could step in and immediately solve all of Tampa Bay’s problems is laughably far fetched. It’s going to take time for the young signal caller to find a rhythm, which could lead to a slight regression in Mike Evans’ numbers, and limit Austin Seferian-Jenkins’ breakout appeal.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
A polar opposite of the aforementioned Winston, Mariota fell to the Titans who scooped him up with the second overall pick of the 2015 draft. Considered by some to be a system quarterback whose humility raised questions about his competitiveness, the former Duck has impressed critics with his resilience and accuracy throughout the preseason.

Concern over Coach Whisenhunt’s ability to utilize Mariota’s skill set appears to have quelled. Over the past three weeks, the rookie has completed 19 of 27 passes, demonstrating poise and composure well beyond his years. Unfortunately, Mariota’s fantasy potential is capped by a dirth of surrounding talent. A middle of the pack QB2 whose mobility offers owners increased upside, Mariota is currently only draftable in dynasty and superflex formats.

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
Thought to be the most NFL-ready receiver in this year’s draft class, Oakland jumped at the chance to provide QB Derek Carr with a legitimate weapon in the passing game. Cooper may not possess elite size or speed, but he is dependable and polished enough to transition to the pro level with relative ease.

A clear focal point of the Raiders offense, Cooper was targeted a team high fifteen times thus far throughout the preseason. He’s hauled in eight grabs for 124 yards in that time. A precise route runner and slippery after the catch, Cooper is the safest fantasy play in this year’s crop of rookies. He projects to be a ball hog, and to be particularly valuable in PPR formats. Currently the nineteenth wideout off the board according to FF Calculator, Cooper presents WR2 value and is fairly priced in the middle of the fourth round.

[Rankings: Top players overall and by position]

Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears
Coming off of a buzzy senior year, White was one of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s draft. Selected by the Bears with the seventh overall pick, the charismatic rookie was expected fill the void left by Brandon Marshall’s departure.

However, White’s season ended before it could even begin. Sidelined with shin splints since June, the rookie underwent surgery for the ailment and has been placed on the team’s Physically Unable to Perform list. He’ll be ineligible to play until Week 6 of the regular season.

Even if the 6-foot-3 and 215 pound specimen were able to return mid-season, the chances of him producing are slim. The reps and familiarity with the playbook that the preseason provides are absolutely necessary for a talent as raw as White’s. There are too many question marks and red flags surrounding this situation to waste a roster spot on the West Virginia product. Instead, I’d recommend scooping up Eddie Royal who is a fantastic PPR value in the seventh or eighth rounds.

Todd Gurley, RB, Saint Louis Rams
Heralded by draftniks as the second coming of Adrian Peterson, Gurley had a monstrous college career. Unfortunately, he also tore his ACL in November of 2014. An undeterred Rams organization snatched up the big bodied back anyway, making him the first RB off the board.

Still ten months removed from knee surgery, Gurley has been practicing with the team on a limited basis. He’s expected to sit out the first few weeks of the season, perhaps not seeing the field until after the squad’s Week 6 bye. Gurley’s exact usage is unknown, but assuming that he continues to progress, the power back could conceivably carry the rock 15 to 18 times per outing.

Operating behind a shoddy offensive line and in a stout division, Gurley will have his work cut out for him. Additionally, second year back Tre Mason will be available to spell the coveted rookie. Recent ADP data illustrates a slight reduction in Gurley’s price, suggesting that he could be available in the middle of the fifth round. While I personally don’t like carrying a player that can’t start Week 1, Gurley’s value at that spot is tempting… as long as he’s slotted behind an already selected RB1 and RB2.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
Gifted with monk-like focus and honey-slathered hands, Parker was a solid value for the Dolphins as the fourteenth overall pick. Added to a receiving corps full of new blood, Parker was a prospect to watch as he blended into the Fins’ offense. Surgery to repair a screw in his left foot, however, stunted the rookie’s transition.

Reports out of Miami suggest that the Louisville product will be ready to take the field in the season opener at Washington. While that’s certainly positive news, Parker is a player whose route running is far from crisp. In addition, his QB has a reputation for whiffing on deep balls.

Still, I like Parker’s chances to heat up as the season progresses. Currently the fiftieth WR off the board, Parker has immense upside late in drafts. Even on a crowded roster, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him emerge and fill the Mike Wallace role in this offense. I see him catching in the neighborhood of 55 balls for 750 yards and six TDs.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
The Wisconsin standout’s fantasy stock spiked after being targeted by the Chargers. A consistent producer known for his tall frame and long strides, the rookie back was expected to fill the void left by Ryan Mathews. The incumbent to a large volume of touches, Gordon possesses top 20 fantasy appeal.

The preseason, however, has not been kind to the youngster. Working behind a shaky offensive line, Gordon has appeared flummoxed and timid. Additionally, his pass catching abilities have paled in comparison to those of veteran pinball Danny Woodhead’s. He’s still likely to lead the Bolts’ backfield on early downs, but his upside as an every down back has been capped. Overpriced in the fourth round, Gordon is a player to eschew.

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Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
A sharp route-runner with the versatility to play both outside and in the slot, Agholor comps similarly to Jeremy Maclin. Unsurprisingly he caught the eye of Chip Kelly and is now expected to line up as the Eagles’ No. 2 receiver.

While the USC product has had to compete with the likes of Josh Huff and Riley Cooper, he’s flashed an impressive amount of quickness and burst. Over three preseason outings the rookie has amassed a 9-117-1 stat line, which is eight balls, 105 yards, and a score better than Huff.

He’s likely to produce immediately and could come in second behind Amari Cooper for rookie standout honors. His current fifth round draft price is a bit bloated, but if you can get him a round or two later he’s a solid steal. I’m forecasting 65 receptions, 800 yards, and 7 TDs for the Trojan.

Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Perriman is the embodiment of a paradox. He’s been gifted with covetable size and speed… and the hands of a clumsy teenager. The bounty of his physical tools make his lack of focus all the more infuriating.

Assumedly drafted by the Ravens to take over Torrey Smith’s role in the offense, Perriman has the chance to ascend quickly. But after spraining his knee on the first day of training camp, the rookie has missed valuable time learning a pro offense. A raw route-runner to begin with, Perriman’s appeal has tarnished, especially considering that no timetable has been announced for his return.

He’s a fine flyer in best ball formats, but I’d recommend avoiding him in redraft. Rather than hoping for some sort of inconsistent boom from the Central Florida product, owners would be better advised to nab a guy like Brandon Coleman or Ty Montgomery late in drafts.

Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts clearly have a fondness for smaller sized speedsters. Both Dorsett and Indy’s No. 1 WR T.Y. Hilton boast similar statures and 40 times. Though it’s worth noting that Dorsett is an inch taller and a hair faster.

A standout in camp, Dorsett figures to be Hilton’s backup. Reports indicate that he’s also outplayed the wildly athletic Donte Moncrief, pushing the second year player for third receiver duties. A deep sleeper being drafted in the final rounds, Dorsett has oodles of exciting upside. He’s absolutely worth a grab and stash pick.