Pressing Questions: The Houston Astros

The Houston Astros actually participated in the 2005 World Series. That's kinda tough to believe given the team's current state, but it's true. Alas, only Wandy Rodriguez(notes) and Humberto Quintero(notes) remain to tell the pennant-winning tale.

The Astros haven't returned to the playoffs since '05, they're coming off a 76-win season, and they finished next-to-last in the National League in runs-scored last year. The team also shed payroll at the trade deadline in 2010, and in so doing also shed talent (Roy Oswalt(notes), Lance Berkman(notes)).

In short, there really aren't many reasons to be optimistic about Houston's chances in the year ahead. This group isn't likely to score enough runs to compete; they're below league-average at almost every position. The pitching staff is competent at the top — Brett Myers(notes), Rodriguez, JA Happ(notes) — but the rotation still can't match up favorably with division rivals like St. Louis and Milwaukee, nor do they have Cincinnati's depth.

This looks like a fourth-place team if things go well, and a sixth-place squad if they don't. And you'd probably have to give this group, say, a 12 percent chance of delivering a vintage Colt .45s-style win/loss record. Houston won't be a fantasy buffet, not this year.

But still, we question.

So Matt Lindstrom(notes) was traded to Colorado. Please tell me that doesn't mean…

…yup, there are apparently no serious challengers to Brandon Lyon(notes) for closing duties. It's true. Lyon had a nice enough second half last year, saving 19 games after the break while posting a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But we're talking about a 31-year-old vet here, so when forecasting his 2011 performance, you can't play the small-sample game. Lyon has an unimpressive career strikeout-rate, particularly for a late-inning reliever (5.86 K/9), and he's walked more than 3.5 batters per nine innings in each of the last two seasons. He's a threat to your ratios, no doubt.

Still, Houston relievers recorded 45 saves last year, 39 the season before, and 48 in 2008. Even the worst teams produce save opportunities, and thus they produce roster-worthy closers.

Carlos Lee(notes) was notably awful last year. Is there any hope for him at all, or does it only get worse?

Lee was, in fact, a disaster last season. He's also going to make $37 million over the next two years, but that's not our problem. What is our problem, however, is the need to come up with a 2011 projection for Lee. He's been a reliable fantasy commodity for the better part of a decade. El Caballo's brand is relatively strong — or at least it was strong, until he delivered a .246/.291/.417 slash line in his age-34 season. It's tough to argue that he isn't declining.

Lee hacked at more pitches outside the zone last year than ever before (34.5 percent, career 24.4), his line drive rate was unusually low (15.6), and his HR/FB rate continues to dip (9.5, career 12.9). But we should also acknowledge the fact that Lee had no luck whatsoever in 2010. His batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.238), and he actually finished dead-last in MLB in batting average on line drives. (Hat tip, Cameron).

Lee's best days are surely behind him, but this is a guy who hit .300 or better every year from 2006 to 2009. Expect a small bounce-back. Even in a monumentally disappointing season, Lee still cleared the fence 24 times and drove in 89 runs. There's a fair chance that Lee, not Brett Wallace(notes), will be the Astros' primary first baseman in 2011. He's already eligible at both first and left field. Wallace has much to prove in spring training, following his miserable MLB debut (.615 OPS in 2010).

Is Chris Johnson(notes) the real deal? Because third base is a pretty thin position, and if he's a legit .300 hitter with decent power, then…

OK, just stop right there. Johnson posted a .387 BABIP last year over 341 at-bats, which made the .308 batting average possible. It's a real stretch to think he can repeat that level of success. If someone were to offer you a guaranteed .265 average and 15 homers from Johnson, you should take it and run. It appears he'll swing at everything (57.4 percent of pitches), he misses too often (26.7 K-percentage), and he's not interested in walking (15 BBs in 2010). It's tough to get excited about this player when you dig beyond last season's 5x5 numbers. But yeah, I suppose the state of the third base position keeps him on the fringes of the fantasy discussion.

So is there a sleeper to be found anywhere in this mess? Anyone? ANYONE?!

Well, I'm fairly sure that I'll own a few shares of Bud Norris(notes) when this year's draft season is complete. He'll turn 26 in March, he's entering his third year in the majors, and his strikeout-rate is exceptional (9.11 career K/9). Command has been the big issue for Norris so far (4.39 BB/9), but I'll continue to buy players who pile up Ks, especially in leagues that use innings caps.

Norris is going well outside the top-300 over at Mock Draft Central in recent days, behind low-impact arms like Randy Wells(notes) and Mike Pelfrey(notes). At that price, he's a no-risk upside selection in the final rounds. There's little hope that run support will be there for Norris, but he's a solid bet to see improvement in the fantasy ratios — last year's xFIP was 4.12, for what it's worth. Take the chance, bid $1.

And that, I'm afraid, is all you get on the 2011 Astros. But I'd be willing to discuss the 1979-'81 team all day in comments. Let's settle the Enos Cabell-Art Howe debate, definitively, right here…

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