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Monday Rewind: Josh Gordon and the waiting game

Optimism is a wonderful thing in real life. But sometimes in our fantasy world, it can trip you up.

Let's consider a recent comment on Josh Gordon, from the desk of Browns beat writer Mary Kay Cabot. A reader asked Cabot what she expects from Gordon when he returns to the Browns in Week 12. Here's how she replied in the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Gordon has been working really hard and I think he'll be ready to unload on the Falcons Nov. 23 in his first game back from his 10-game suspension. It usually takes a player a little time to get acclimated to game speed and contact, but I have a feeling the adrenaline will take over and fans will see the All-Pro receiver Gordon was last season. If the Browns are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, things could get really interesting when he returns. With four of those final six games on the road, they'll definitely need him to be on point.

Now I don't want to take more from the quote than is intended. It's good to see that Gordon is apparently working hard, taking his preparation time seriously. I'm sure he'll be gung-ho to make an immediate impact when he returns, especially if the Browns are still in the playoff hunt.

That said, what player doesn't want to tear it up when he returns to action? Adrenaline is nice, but does it replace timing with the offense and with the quarterbacks? Remember, Gordon is allowed in the team facilities but he's still not allowed to practice with the Browns.

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If I had any Gordon shares, I'd aggressively shop them right before his Week 12 return. If someone will give you a WR1 for Gordon before he ever takes a snap – or something similar to WR1 value – I'll sign off on the trade ticket. And heck, maybe I'm underselling the potential return. Perhaps there's someone in your league with a ton of depth they're willing to give away.

The longer you wait for anything in life, the more grandiose expectations are likely to be. Consider what the rotoheads usually expect when a hot minor-league prospect hits the big league. There's a learning curve and an adjustment curve for most callups; it's rare to see anyone crush the league immediately.

That's not a direct comparison to Gordon, of course, since he's already a made man. He was a monster in the 2013 season, and he did it despite a mediocre cast around him. Heck, he came into last season somewhat cold, too, missing the first two games before a Week 3 return. All that said, I get the sense some owners are starting to expect crazy and immediate returns from Gordon, and that's when I downshift into sell mode.

If nothing else, at least sample what's out there. No one says you have to make a deal. But given how long the Gordon wait has lasted, I think that's going to skew what some people expect in the final quarter of the season.

[Related: Top fantasy pickups for Week 10]

-- Sure, I'm in on Mark Sanchez, like everyone else seems to be. In loose terms, this reminds me of what we saw in Chicago last year. Sanchez is to Foles and Kelly as McCown was to Cutler and Trestman. You love the collection of offensive weapons, you trust in the offensive designer.

It's a shame the 2014 Bears haven't been as much fun as the 2013 team was, excepting Matt Forte of course. That said, I like buying on any of the major offensive pieces here. It's doubtful Chicago will be able to fix that putrid defense (a carnival, how delightful), and Trestman has already shown he'll keep using his primary offensive pieces even when games get out of hand. Numbers are numbers, even if they come in garbage time. (To illustrate the other side, look at how the Panthers have regularly pulled Cam Newton this year, in part due to injuries, when games were no longer in question.)

-- One of the great things about the Manning-era Broncos: they're not stubborn with their initial plans. The club now realizes Ronnie Hillman is the best running back on the roster, and assuming he's healthy enough to play, he'll be deployed as a feature back. They understood what a sunk cost is, or a sunk opinon, call it what you will. Flush all the sunshine and lollipops tied to Montee Ball this summer; it's not happening for him. Unless you have massive roster space, I wouldn't even burn a bench spot on him.

-- There's been some buy-low talk on LeSean McCoy, and tied to roto pundits I greatly respect. The angle surprises me a little, because I don't think any reasonable McCoy owner is anxious to sell him any longer. McCoy is on a 66-349-5.3 rushing binge over the last three games, and the Philadelphia line keeps getting healthier. I could easily see McCoy being a Top 5 fantasy player the remainder of the way.

Maybe there are some owners in your league who are unaware of Shady's recent recovery. But I don't think they're the people who own McCoy – those are the ones assuredly up on the story. Maybe you can sell on the Sanchez fear, or McCoy's lack of touchdowns. But if I were sitting with McCoy shares today, I'd insist on first-round value in return.

-- If you want a dominant defensive lineman or a capable stand-in dance chaperone, J.J. Watt is your man. He's probably the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, too. But let's stop with the silly MVP talk. The Texans are 18th in YPA allowed, 19th in rating allowed, and 17th in sacks. This is not an MVP case.

A similar candidate unmasking took place in Dallas, where DeMarco Murray couldn't carry the Romo-less Cowboys past the Cardinals. Did you notice the massive point-spread shift when Romo was scratched? No current running back carries that much weight in the line, and with good reason. In a pass-friendly league, running backs don't have a seismic effect on things.

-- For the second time this season, Matt Asiata gave us a three-touchdown game that was tied to an otherwise-mediocre performance. By way of celebration, here's a collection of the best fantasy performances from RBs who couldn't make it to 3.0 YPC. Asiata shows up twice in the top dozen.

Assuming Adrian Peterson doesn't return to Minnesota (I'm no lawyer but I'm still betting against it), Asiata becomes a viable flex option for the rest of the year. Sure, he'll be touchdown dependent, but you know how uncreative coaches are in all sports. When something works, they'll keep rolling with it. Minnesota's coaching staff will convince itself Asiata has some special touchdown-producing quality, when it's really not that difficult to score from the shadow of the goal line.

Sorry it went down like this, Jerick McKinnon owner. Your guy will still get work between the 20s, and he'll fall into some scores on raw ability. But the chippies are probably spoken for. 

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