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First Down: David Johnson must be first fantasy RB drafted

First Down: David Johnson must be first fantasy RB drafted

The Buzz: There's dissension in the ranks. After a year in which 58.3 percent of RB1s and RB2s failed to measure up (finishing within three spots of their respective tiers), an increasing number of drafters are abandoning the running theory for ZeroRB. Some stubborn fantasy strategists, though divided on which RB is deserving of top honors, continue to cling to traditional tactics. Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson and David Johnson are candidates for the distinction. The Desert Bird, however, is the one who should fall off draft boards first as an overall top-five pick.

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Why the sophomore rusher is an oasis in the desert

Pump up the volume. The "v" word is the most seductive expression in fantasy. The mere thought of a player getting his mitts on the ball some 300-plus times is enthralling. Johnson is clearly that guy.

With only a partially fossilized Chris Johnson and injury-prone, change-of-pace Andre Ellington on roster, DJ has very little competition. Sure, his backups will be sprinkled in here and there, but, as Bruce Arians himself recently noted, Johnson "earned the bell cow" role last year amassing 4.7 yards per carry, 114.5 total yards per game and six touchdowns over the regular season's final six games. His equivalent 19.0 fantasy points per contest in standard Yahoo leagues ranked No. 1 over that stretch. Adding fuel to the fire, the outspoken head coach even went as far to say he believes the rusher "has a chance to be one of the all-time best." When you're throwing around "all-time" superlatives, it's evident who the featured back is. Bank on DJ netting some 20 touches per game, a workload only three RBs – Devonta Freeman, Peterson and Doug Martin – averaged in 2015.

In other words, Johnson is a true unicorn.

Secondary metrics. Excitement about Johnson in the analytics community prior to last spring's NFL Draft was over the moon. At the Combine, he graded out as a 'top performer' at his position in five of six categories, including the 40-yard dash (4.50). His considerable athleticism, strength, size (6-foot-1, 224 pounds) and versatilty had salivary glands working overtime. Only his aggressiveness on interior runs was questioned, a concern that was soon quelled.

Living up to his immense promise, Johnson was more than a cursory stats standout. He gained 57.4 percent of his yards after initial contact, forced a missed tackle 21.7 percent of the time and ripped off one fewer 15-plus yard run, on 57 fewer attempts, than fellow rookie T.J. Yeldon.

Favorable surroundings. Arizona is flush with offensive talent. Whether looking at Pro Football Focus or Football Outsiders, the line, lambasted in previous seasons, ranked top-three in run-blocking and top-six in second-level and open-field runs. Given its strength and the passing arsenal comprised of Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown and it's easy to argue the environment around Johnson is substantially more nourishing than what Gurley and Peterson are in. Stacked boxes will again be scarce in the desert.

Second-half cakewalk. Make no mistake, Johnson has a tough road up until the Cardinals' bye in Week 9. Unfriendly matchups against New England, the Jets, Seattle and Carolina will be no walk in the park. Still, the rusher proved nearly matchup proof last year, evidenced in his efforts against St. Louis (22-99-0, 2-21-1)  and Minnesota (19-92-0, 5-31-0). Through volume alone, he should pull an ace against a stacked deck.

Once he weathers the first-half storm, numerous pot-raking performances are in the offing. His schedule Weeks 10-15 is THE easiest among RBs, featuring softies San Francisco, Atlanta, Washington and New Orleans. A Week 16 visit to Seattle will be daunting, but he's very capable of blazing a fiery trail to fantasy Super Bowls.

Bottom Line: Three-down workhorses in this timeshare age are a rarity. On draft day, while everyone else is zigging (drafting WRs or Gronk), riverboat gamblers should zag (go RB). After all, no two years in the NFL are ever the same. Last year's anomalous bust rate is unlikely to be duplicated. Keep in mind from 2009-2014, RBs fell short of expectations at a 43.1 percent clip. A regression to the mean is entirely probable. And Johnson will be one reason why. Bell (knee injury recovery), Gurley (bad line, Jared Goff) and Peterson (advanced age, gross passing offense) are greater risks.

Naysayers will argue Johnson is the next C.J. Anderson, a doomed-to-fail rusher who reached the RB pinnacle only over a small sample size. Though the latter is based in truth, the situation Johnson is involved in, as stated above, is not only different, it's set up for success. If he flirts with 2,000 combined yards and 15 total touchdowns it would be no shocker special.

Trust him.

Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.