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Closing Time: Waiting for Carlos Gomez

Closing Time: Waiting for Carlos Gomez

For most of Wednesday night, it was a get-well party for the Houston Astros. A 16-4 laugher is like that. Their two biggest stars (Altuve and Correa) hit home runs, the offense collected 14 hits and seven walks, the fans could relax for three hours.

But things haven’t come around yet for Carlos Gomez. Maybe they’re not going to.

Gomez went 1-for-5 on the evening, tacking on a two-run double off Casey Fien in the fifth inning. Basically, garbage time — Houston already had a big lead, and Fien sports a 7.90 ERA. Gomez also struck out three times, and he ended the night with a .227/.253/.318 slash.

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When does a bad start become a bad season? When do we have to significantly take down our Gomez expectations?

Gomez has never been a patient hitter, but things have cratered through five weeks. He’s walking just 2.2 percent of the time (that’s one-third of last year’s rate) and he’s striking out 30.8 percent of the time, easily his career high. He’s yet to hit a home run. He’s 2-for-4 on the bases.

Things aren’t exciting when Gomez makes contact, either. He’s producing soft contact 28.3 percent of the time, the worst clip of his career. His hard-rate number is at a six-year low. He’s also at the highest ground-ball rate of his career.

Gomez is also coming of a lousy season. Although injuries played into the slump — and cost him 47 games — we have to acknowledge his mediocre 2015 return (.255-61-12-56-17). His batting average fell 29 points from the previous season; his homers dropped by 11; his stolen bases were cut in half.

For most of Gomez’s 20s, he was an athletic player and a defensive marvel who struggled with the bat. He found his stride from 2012-2014, despite a free-swinging mentality. But this might not be the type of player who’s going to age well, and I’m not interested in chasing his glory days. Perhaps 2015 is the new normal for Gomez. That’s where I’m setting my baseline, as we settle into his age-30 campaign.

If you’re a Gomez owner and want to cash out, don’t tell me I’m ruining your market. There are plenty of fantasy analysts who disagree with me (mildly or strongly) on Gomez, and I’m sure at least some people in your league don’t follow my advice, either. Fantasy sports are games about differing opinions, and you’ll find plenty of them out there. As soon as Gomez has a couple of strong games — sooner or later he has to, like anyone else — it’s time to see what’s out there.

Chatty (Denis Poroy/Getty)
Chatty (Denis Poroy/Getty)

• Life on the road continues to be a daisy for Tyler Chatwood. He threw eight bagels at the Padres on Wednesday, his third consecutive road turn with zero runs allowed. The other two came with more degree of difficulty — at Arizona, at Chicago. For the year he has a tidy 2.15 ERA, with 27 strikeouts against just eight walks. A ground-ball rate of 51.8 percent is divine, too.

Unfortunately, Chatwood will have to deal with Coors Field for half the time, and we can’t overlook the teeth of that park. Chatwood has a career ERA of 4.20 in the elements — not bad, given the backdrop, but not roto-playable — and a WHIP of 1.50. Sometimes Occam’s Razor is the way to go — the simplest, most obvious explanation is the truest one.

Chatwood’s next two turns are at home, against Arizona and the Mets. I’m out for those. And a road trip to Pittsburgh isn’t a picnic, with the Pirates fifth in the majors in runs scored. I’ll give Chatwood preferred streamer and DFS status when he’s on the road and the opponent is ordinary, but that’s as far as I go. Don't talk yourself into this story.

• The Phillies have been much better than expected through the first five weeks, off to a 16-12 start. New closer Jeanmar Gomez is doing his part, with a hand in 11 of those victories (two wins, nine saves). A 2.70 ERA is fine.

Alas, Gomez doesn’t look as snappy when you open the hood. He’s only struck out 12 batters in 16.2 innings, and he’s issued five walks. His career ratios (4.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) don’t inspire confidence. His FIP sits at 3.31, his xFIP at 3.82 — those are ways of saying he’s been fortunate to this point. And he’s coming off a messy blown save Wednesday at St. Louis.

One blown game isn’t going to cost Gomez his job, but we have to acknowledge some of the other arms in the Philly bullpen. Hector Neris is almost too good to be true through 17.1 innings, with two runs allowed and 27 strikeouts against four walks. David Hernandez doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s collected 22 punchouts in 13.1 innings. Andrew Bailey is also back in the mix, with six scoreless innings.

If you’re in a league where you have to find closers before they’re anointed, you have plenty to choose from in Philadelphia. Neris also makes perfect sense simply from a quality-inning standpoint, a way to smooth over your ratios.

Realest of Realmutos (AP/Lynne Sladky)
Realest of Realmutos (AP/Lynne Sladky)

• It’s been fun watching J.T. Realmuto slot leadoff for the Marlins the last two games. He’s collected four hits and a couple of runs in that role, so you imagine it will continue. He even tried to swipe a base, though he was cut down. He's hiked his OPS up to .823.

Realmuto is long, long gone in the two-catcher world and the medium and deep mixed leagues, but he’s oddly available in 39 percent of the overall Yahoo pools. Given the brutality of 2016’s catcher board, he has a shot to be a Top 5 option — and should easily finish in the Top 10. He’s also affordable in DFS, and highly recommended most nights. Realmuto, real deal.

• Aaron Hicks was one of my deeper sleepers entering the year. Thus far, he’s merely been asleep: 2-for-30, no homers or steals. Maybe part of that is inconsistent playing time. Maybe he’s just not that good — you’re entitled to say that, if you like.

Nonetheless, Hicks did post 11 homers and 13 steals in 97 games with the Twins last year, and he’s going to get a temporary trial with the Yankees now that Alex Rodriguez is on the disabled list. Wednesday’s wheel play pushed Hicks into the outfield, with Carlos Beltran at DH. Hicks went 0-for-4, but I’m still giving him an audit in deeper leagues. Let’s see if anything sparks here. He's still just 26, and has a first-round pedigree.