ADP Progress Report: A pair of CJs, Gordon, Wilson feeling the chill

Each week the ADP Progress Report highlights the movers and shakers over the past several days from data compiled by Fantasy Football Calculator. Satisfactory check-pluses in courteousness, self-control and neatness are not required. Today's topic: Fastest fallers. 

Melvin Gordon, SD, RB (Current ADP: 36.5, -10.1 from July 20) – The electricity once tied to the rookie rusher has subsided considerably in recent days. Gordon, an explosive, gliding runner whose style echos Jamaal Charles', was expected to step in and handle the load immediately for San Diego. Though that may still be the case, worries have mounted. Danny Woodhead, who missed most of '14 with a broken leg, is healthy and slated for an integral role in Mike McCoy's offense. The plucky back's superior receiving and pass protection skills suggest Gordon will play exclusively on early downs, a probable outcome this year. Couple that with Woodhead's possible goal-line poaching, and it's clear why the youngster's ADP continues to slide. His pro debut didn't exactly help reverse the trend. Against Dallas, Gordon recorded a miserable 11 yards on six carries. He often made the first defender miss, but was quickly swarmed under behind an ineffective offensive line, a unit that ranked dead last in run-blocking last year per Pro Football Focus. Still the most sought after rookie in average drafts, he's terribly overvalued. Anticipate closer to 1,100 total yards with 4-6 TDs than the 1,300-9 projections many 'experts' have spouted.

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C.J. Anderson, Den, RB (8.3, -2.2 since July 20) – Scars from last year's Montee Ball burning, apparently, remain visible. Owners have pushed the panic button ceaselessly since Anderson rolled his ankle in Denver's preseason opener in Seattle. Though painful memories of Ball's disastrous 2014 are still fresh, the overreaction on CJA is unnecessary. Yes, Anderson has a limited track record, but what he accomplished last season was nothing short of magnificent. Carrying the mail from Week 10 on, he tallied 4.7 yards per carry, 132.1 total yards per game and 10 touchdowns, the second-best fantasy output among all rushers. Equally impressive, he recorded 53.6 percent of his yards after initial contact and recorded the fourth-best elusive rating (70.4) at the position. Not only an adept rusher, he's also an impactful receiver and blocker. Undoubtedly, he's the most balanced RB on the Broncos roster and an ideal fit for Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme. Add that to his head coach's fondness for workhorses (e.g. Arian Foster and Justin Forsett), and it's plain to see why he'll be a 300-plus touch back. Denver's patchwork offensive line remains a work in progress, but 1,500 combined yards with 10-12 TDs are achievable. No player, particularly a RB, is 100-percent safe. However, Anderson is a dead bolt. Quit slamming the silly sauce. Trust the projected volume.

C.J. Spiller, NO, RB (53.6, -6.3 since Aug 11) – Spiller hurt? Here we go again. Scheduled to miss the remainder of the preseason after undergoing minor knee surgery, Spiller has lost many supporters over the past week. Reservations are warranted. Though he generated occasionally vibrant numbers at his previous stop in Buffalo, he missed eight games due to myriad injuries from 2013-2014. If he plays a full 16-game slate this year, Donald Trump wins the presidency next November. Still, he's worth plucking off the clearance rack in PPR leagues. Even over 13 contests, he could be spectacular. Sean Payton has repeatedly said he wants to feed Spiller in space. Mark Ingram will almost certainly handle the tough, between-the-tackles carries and goal-line totes, but his sidekick should take on a Pierre Thomas-like role, functioning as a swing and screen-game weapon. Recall over the past five combined seasons, New Orleans RBs averaged 142.6 receptions and 1,052 receiving yards per year, far and away the most at the position. And from 2011-2013, Spiller hauled in 116 receptions netting a stout 7.97 yards per catch. Dude is about to do WORK as a gadget back. Don't be surprised if he exceeds 65 receptions, 1,000 combined yards and five TDs this year. 

ADDITIONAL FREE FALLERS 

Russell Wilson, Sea, QB (50.7, -4.7 since July 20) – Why on earth is Wilson falling? Unsustainable rushing production? WR concerns? Conservative offense? Refusing to seal the deal with Ciara?! Whatever the reason, the Seahawk's slide is inexplicable. With Jimmy Graham in town, this is the best arsenal the passer has ever had. Sure his rushing stats will likely decline from last year's lofty level (849-6), but it's not like he's going to morph into Tom Brady on the ground. Behind a rickety offensive line, one that put him under duress 46 percent of the time last year, he'll take advantage of what the defense gives him and break contain often. Another 800 rush yards are unlikely, but he should make up that lost production through the air, retuning to 2012 and 2013's 26 TDs. Behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, he's the third-best QB option. Period.

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Tevin Coleman, Atl, RB (82.1, -15.5 since July 20) – Coleman's value decline is a prime example why most fantasy owners fear the unknown. After missing critical practice time with a hamstring injury, drafters have greatly lowered their expectations for the Indiana product. Buy on the bear. The rookie is an aggressive, relentless north-south runner who isn't shy about contact. A pedal-to-metal accelerator (4.39 40-yard dash) who explodes through tight spaces and leaves second/third-tier defenders eating dust in the open-field, he's the definition of "home-run hitter" (7.54 ypc in '14). Also an accomplished receiver and pass blocker, he owns three-down potential. In Kyle Shanahan's zone-blocking system, a scheme similar to what he played in while at IU, he should overtake Devonta Freeman at some point this year. Coleman will likely enter the regular season locked in a near 50-50 timeshare, but come October, it would be no surprise if he titled the scales in his favor, netting 60-percent of the touches. Point blank, he's too talented not to. 

Sammy Watkins, Buf, WR (56.3, -4.8 since July 20) – "Uncoverable." "Makes difficult catches look routine." "Head-and-shoulders the best player in camp." These are descriptions writers walking the Bills beat have said about Sammy this summer. No one questions Watkins' skills. He's a tough, explosive receiver who notched admirable numbers in his inaugural campaign (65-982-6). However, the quarterback situation is remarkably undesirable. Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and E.J. Manuel wouldn't scare an intramural flag football team. Greg Roman's ultra conservative offense is also a knock. Put it all together, and it's easy to see why people have shied away. Still, if he slips outside the WR top-24, there's plenty of profit potential. it's entirely conceivable he matches what Anquan Boldin did last year in Roman's offense (83-1062-5). Do that and he should flirt with a top-20 finish. 

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