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A National League season preview with fantasy predictions
If you missed my American League preview, check it out here.
NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Miami Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Comments/Predictions: Max Scherzer is a top-10 fantasy player, winning the NL Cy Young, while Stephen Strasburg records five more victories than ever before in his career and is a top-15 fantasy player...Bryce Harper finally lives up to the hype and is a unanimous top-five pick in 2016 drafts, while Ryan Zimmerman is more valuable than teammates Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond...Drew Storen leads MLB in saves.
Despite an innings limit, Matt Harvey is a top-five starter and is taken in the first round in many 2016 drafts...David Wright reaches 25 home runs and 100 RBI for the first time since 2010, while Jacob deGrom finishes as a top-20 starter, ahead of James Shields...Bobby Parnell has the most saves in the Mets’ bullpen.
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Giancarlo Stanton leads MLB in homers and wins the MVP, while Dee Gordon proves to be one of the bigger fantasy busts...Steve Cishek is a top-10 closer, but Mat Latos isn’t one of the three most valuable pitchers on his own team...No one who drafts Marcell Ozuna regrets it.
The Braves score the fewest runs in all of baseball, hurting Freddie Freeman’s value the most...Eric Young steals 35 bases despite a sub-.300 OBP...Mike Minor becomes an afterthought, but Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller are all extremely valuable despite lacking wins...Maikel Franco is a major source of FAAB at some point, and despite Ken Giles’ shaky spring, he takes over and dominates as Philadelphia’s closer once Jonathan Papelbon is traded...No team comes close to losing as many games as the Phillies.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs (wild card)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (wild card)
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comments/Predictions: Jason Heyward combines for 10 more homers/steals than Justin Upton...Yadier Molina is a top-five catcher, but Adam Wainwright isn’t a top-20 starter, as his value is right on par with teammate Michael Wacha...The Cardinals could easily win the World Series this year.
Kris Bryant hits 30 homers, is a top-five third baseman and wins NL ROY while living up to the hype, but Anthony Rizzo disappoints compared to his ADP...Chris Coghlan is one of the better NL-only picks (don’t sleep on him in deeper mixed leagues either), while Jorge Soler is a top-20 outfielder...Hector Rondon finishes as a top-10 closer, while Jake Arrieta is a top-15 starter, ahead of Cole Hamels and Jon Lester...My favorite bet of the year easily is the Cubs OVER 82.5 wins.
Gerrit Cole is a top-10 starter (thanks in part to new catcher Francisco Cervelli’s excellent framing and pitching in PNC Park), while Andrew McCutchen doesn’t finish top-five overall...In my Primetime NFBC league (which is pretty high stakes), Starling Marte went No. 17 overall!...Francisco Liriano, who had a 2.20 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 94 strikeouts over 86.0 innings after the All-Star break last year, could benefit the most from throwing to Cervelli. Liriano is really slipping in drafts and will be a huge bargain considering his biggest problem has always been control (and health). His 13.6 SwStr% last year was second in MLB only to Clayton Kershaw. I’m also going to guess Pittsburgh’s defense improves with Pedro Alvarez (whom I also like as a cheap source for power this year) no longer playing third base. Go get Liriano.
I wrote about the risk/reward of Ryan Braun here, and I’m also in on Adam Lind (his .856 OPS over the last two years would rank in the top-20 in MLB if he qualified). His questionable durability could become a problem in a league with no DH, but Lind is now playing in a home park that’s increased HR for LHB by 39 percent over the past three years, which is the second highest in all of baseball. He’ll go down as a major steal if he can stay relatively healthy...If his shoulder cooperates (admittedly a question as of now), Mike Fiers will be a top-30 starter.
Joey Votto bounces back as one of the league’s best hitters, but Homer Bailey continues to struggle with injures and becomes an afterthought...No closer finishes close to Aroldis Chapman in fantasy value...Marlon Byrd, who’s 37 years old and had never homered more than 20 times in a season throughout his career until each of the last two years, does so again in 2015.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Comments/Predictions: Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brett Anderson combine for fewer than 100.0 innings pitched, while Brandon McCarthy is a top-35 starter...Carl Crawford is worth using in 10-team mixed leagues when healthy, while Joc Pederson goes 20/20...Clayton Kershaw proves worthy of being the No. 2 overall pick (and yes, I also predicted he doesn’t win his fourth Cy Young in five years)...Yasiel Puig is a top-15 player, while 36-year-old Jimmy Rollins is a top-five shortstop.
Matt Kemp, who had the second-best wRC+ in baseball after the All-Star break last season, continues to hit well but ultimately disappoints his fantasy owners thanks to missing time and a lack of steals...Speaking of not living up to ADP, Justin Upton, who certainly has some encouraging signs after being a top-30 player last year despite batting .171/.269/.293 with RISP with two outs (over 82 ABs yet still managed 102 RBI), is now playing in PETCO Park, which has limited BA by nine percent and runs scored by 17 percent over the past three years, which are both the most in MLB. As for RHB, the park has decreased home runs by 24 percent over this span, with only PNC and AT&T more extreme, so buyer beware...The Padres have a strong rotation (although ERAs helped by PETCO will be hurt by an extremely shaky outfield defense) and ridiculous outfield depth with a good chance of a Jedd Gyorko rebound and one of the better hitting catchers in baseball, so they are serious wild card contenders.
Brandon Belt hits 27 homers, which is the most by a Giants left-handed hitter since Barry Bonds in 2007...Matt Cain bounces back and is a top-50 starter, while Yusmeiro Petit easily outpitches Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong...Madison Bumgarner continues to win at life.
Wilin Rosario isn’t a top-20 catcher, while Nolan Arenado is more valuable than Adrian Beltre...There’s a 50 percent chance Drew Stubbs has more fantasy value than one of the Rockies’ three projected OF starters, and that’s not accounting for ADP...Tyler Matzek emerges as the team's No. 1 starter, while Adam Ottavino finishes with the most saves.
Chris Owings is profitable, but it’s A.J. Pollock who goes down as one of the best steals of the 2015 season. He posted a .302/.353/.498 line while hitting seven homers and stealing 14 bases over just 265 at-bats last year. He also scored 41 runs and has been successful on 26-of-32 SB attempts over the past two years. While that pace is unsustainable, Pollock is a good defender and baserunner who has a clear path to playing time on a Diamondbacks team that plays in a home park that’s boosted run scoring more than any other than Coors Field over the past three seasons. He’s not much of a “sleeper,” but I’d be willing to reach for him as a top-30 outfielder.
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
World Series: Nationals over Indians
