2015 NFL Rookie Predictions: Marcus Mariota has legit first-year promise

Poked, prodded, pricked -- pro prospects have been thoroughly examined by franchises leading up to this month's NFL Draft. However, fantasy owners are just now dissecting their Year 1 potential. Over the next several weeks, we'll attempt to channel our inner Mayock determining whether Rookie X will be fantasy flame or lame material this fall. Monday's profile: Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

College Highlights: Mariota is the most accomplished QB in Oregon football history posting video game-like numbers in his three years in Eugene. He's only the sixth passer in FBS history to pass for over 9,000 yards (10,796) and rush for over 2,000 yards (2,237) in a career. Rushed for at least 70 yards in 12 of 41 career contests. In 2014, he set the pace nationally in passing efficiency (181.7) and yards per attempt (10.0). He also compiled at least three total touchdowns in 13 of 15 games. Oregon's first ever Heisman Trophy winner.

Pluses: Versatility is the name of the game for Mariota. His blazing straight-line speed (4.52 40-yard), ability to break contain, sharp on-the-move throws and quick release makes him difficult for defenders to lasso. Fantastic arm strength. Can squeeze the pill into tight windows and, at times, has shown adequate touch on loft tosses. Possesses size (6-foot-4, 222-pounds) and athleticism to execute efficiently, particularly as a runner, inside the red zone. Highly intelligent. He tossed two picks or more only three times in 41 career starts. Mild-mannered attitude and general leadership qualities often described as Russell Wilson-like.

Minuses: The Ducks' unique offense could make his transition rocky. Their spread style, shotgun offense is predicated on simple reads. He'll need to show competency working from under center. His overall pocket awareness is sketchy. Instead of stepping up in the pocket, he tends to sprint outside the tackle boxes. Must shield his body from violent contact in order to prevent RG3-type fate. Accuracy eluded him often, especially on short-to-intermediate throws. Fumble prone. He put the ball on the turf 27 times in 41 games.

Pro Comp(s): Colin Kaepernick

Team Fits: Tampa Bay, Tennessee, New York Jets, Chicago, Cleveland, Philadelphia

Projected ADP/Auction Value ($200 cap): 160-180 (QB22)/$4-$7

Fearless Forecast: Compared to Jameis Winston, Mariota has measurable Year 1 fantasy potential largely due to his rushing ability. While draftniks are all over the place on where he'll end up, in the right environment (e.g. Philly) he could be a poor man's Cam Newton. His large frame, quickness and fearless demeanor offer considerable encouragement. If he winds up starting Week 1 and can avoid significant injury over 16 games, anticipate a final rookie-year line around 4,000 combined yards (3,400 pass, 600 rush) with 20-24 total touchdowns and 13-17 interceptions. Unquestionably, he's worth a late-round stab in 12-team leagues.

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