To win Wimbledon, Milos Raonic must not only beat Roger Federer, likely Andy Murray – but an entire nation

WIMBLEDON – Milos Raonic came to Wimbledon with one goal in mind, and it wasn’t to be a gracious semi-finalist or a grateful finalist.

He came here to win.

But if he’s going to take his maiden Grand Slam title, he’s going to have to disappoint all of England.

Unless Czech veteran Tomas Berdych upsets Andy Murray in the second men’s singles semi-final, Raonic is going to be both the underdog and the people’s second choice the rest of the way. He would have to beat Roger Federer in Friday’s semi, then Murray in Sunday’s final.

 “I have very clear objectives for myself, goals, that are beyond this tournament. To achieve those things, you have to face off against the best players at the best tournaments,” he said after defeating Sam Querrey in the quarterfinals Wednesday.

The king of Wimbledon, and the home-country hope. That they are the No. 2 and No. 3 players in the world is almost incidental to the fact that both will have the crowd on their side to such an extent, Raonic will be battling not just an opponent, but an entire nation. It's not as if Raonic is a crowd favourite anywhere, other than at the Rogers Cup. But this is an entirely different level.

At the very least, the 25-year-old fully expects to put forth a more competitive effort than he did when he and Federer last were on Centre Court two years ago, at the very same stage of the tournament. The scores were 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. But the match wasn’t nearly that close.

That 2014 match was the first time Raonic had reached the semi-final stage at a Grand Slam (he has since done it again, this season in Australia). It also was the first time in the tournament that Raonic had been on the Centre Court while Federer had, as Raonic put it then, played on it in the “triple digits” during his career.

Federer won the toss, and chose to receive. He understood this was Raonic’s first experience in this situation; he knew the Canadian would be nervous. Federer broke him to open the proceedings, and the rest of the match was Raonic trying in vain to catch up.

Two years later, it’s a different Raonic, one who has had plenty of big-time experiences, is comfortable in his position as a consistent top-10 player, knows that belongs, and is playing the best tennis of his life.

On the tennis side, the Canadian said he’ll take the best of what he did earlier in the year when he defeated Federer for only the second time in 11 opportunities to win the Australian Open warmup tournament in Brisbane. From the psychological side, he’ll look at that 2014 semi-final – and not repeat the same mistakes.

One notable thing from that 2014 match was how well Federer guessed on Raonic’s serve. When an opponent is breaking the radar gun with his delivery, you have to guess to an extent. But in Federer’s case, they clearly were educated guesses.

Two years later, Raonic is a far superior server. He might not tote up the same number of aces, but he’s far less predictable in the sense that he mixes up his targets and speeds, has added a body serve, and is willing to come up and volley behind his serve on both the first and second deliveries. He’s likely to keep Federer much more off-balance in that area and, if he holds his serve more routinely, he will give himself the freedom to take a few more chances on Federer’s serve.

He's also a different-looking player – back to basics, as it were. The slicked-down, snap-on hairstye nowhere in evidence (in fact, these days it looks a whole lot like it did when he came here as a junior in 2008 - see above). The sleeve (white at Wimbledon) has been put to pasture. As Raonic has begun to carve out an identity with his tennis, it seems all the superfluous flourishes have fallen by the wayside.

For nearly three sets during their quarterfinal epic, Cilic had Federer befuddled on the return. The Swiss star admitted later that he couldn’t get a read on it, at all. But he adjusted; Federer changed his return position, started to – as he put it – feel the serve better, and slowly but surely dug more of a foothold into Cilic’s service games. He’ll need to do the same thing against Raonic, and Raonic will have to avoid being predictable, at all costs.

The shocking early exit by world No. 1 Novak Djokovic threw the men’s event into chaos in the sense that few gave any other player more than a puncher’s chance at the title.

Now, it’s anyone’s trophy.

Former finalist Berdych would be the longest of long shots. Murray has won it before and got all the match toughness he needed in the quarterfinal, when he needed five sets to dismiss Jo-Wilfried Tsonga after winning the first two sets.

For Federer, who arrived in London with few expectations because of his back woes earlier in the season and the resulting lack of match play, it’s an unexpected opportunity to win his 18^th major – and he doesn’t have to go through Djokovic to do it.

Until he defeated Cilic, the 34-year-old (he turns 35 Aug. 8) hadn’t even played a five-set match since he came back from two sets to none down to defeat Gaël Monfils in the quarterfinals of the 2014 US Open.

These are the matches Federer lives for, and assuming he pulls up well two days later, he has the advantage in that he knows how to win them. The crowd will desperately want him to win it.

Will one man have enough will to disappoint an entire tennis nation? We will find out on Friday.