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Role reversal: Blue Jays 7-2 win over Yankees outlier in this year’s season series

TORONTO – On Wednesday night, Todd Redmond accomplished a feat equaled by just R.A. Dickey among Blue Jays starting pitchers - notch a win against the New York Yankees this season.

Question the significance and value of the pitcher win all you want (which I do often) but it's not an encouraging sign when it takes until late August for the rotation to pick up its first two wins facing a division rival.

Redmond became the 8th Jays pitcher to start against the Yankees this season and pitched a solid but unspectacular 5 2/3 innings giving up two earned runs, three hits, four walks, and striking out seven as Toronto won 7-2 to take the series.

"[We won] two out of three, baby. Matter of fact two out of three from the Red Sox, two out of three from the Yankees our last two home series - don't be afraid to write that," cracked manager John Gibbons post-game.

The win improves the Blue Jays to 3-12 in the season series against the Yankees. Remove the head-to-head results from both teams' records and New York goes from 70-63 to 58-60 while Toronto goes from 60-74 to 57-62 - a 10 win disparity dropped down to one.

It wouldn't make much of a difference overall but it's still worth investigating. What are the reasons behind the Yankees success against the Blue Jays this season?

Much like most of Toronto's problems this season, it begins and ends with the starting pitching.

While Redmond's solid start was reason to celebrate, Hiroki Kuroda's performance lined up with what you would expect from the Jays, not the Yankees, in this season series.

Kuroda entered Wednesday's start, his fourth against the Jays, with a 1.69 ERA in 21 1/3 innings against Toronto.

That took a hit after he had a rough first three innings, allowing seven runs, five earned, including a rare two-RBI strikeout to J.P. Arencibia (the two-runs batted in, not the strikeout) in the first inning.

This season, the Yankees have averaged 5.2 runs per game against Toronto. That's more than a run over their of regular average of just under 4 runs per game. Conversely, the Blue Jays are averaging 3.1 runs per game against the Yankees, a significant drop off from their average of 4.4 runs per game.

In the past giving up more runs than average to the Yankees was unavoidable, but this year they're currently 17th in the majors in runs scored. It will be the first time since 2008 that New York doesn't finish the season with the first or second most productive in the league.

So why has a middling Yankees offence produced at an elite level against the Jays in 2013? And why has an above average Jays offence been below average against the Yankees?

In short, it comes down to small sample size and both team's starting pitching living on opposite sides of the extremes.

Before Wednesday's start, Kuroda and Andy Pettite (3 starts, 20 1/3 IP, 1.77 ERA vs. Toronto) were uncommonly good against the Blue Jays while Mark Buehrle (4 starts, 25 IP, 5.04 ERA vs. New York), J.A. Happ (3 starts, 16 IP, 6.75 ERA), and Brandon Morrow (2 starts, 10 1/3 IP, 8.71 ERA) were uncommonly bad.

In a small sample, those performances from the most important position on the field, give us an outsized result. Only Buerhle's struggles could have been predicted. He carries a career 6.02 ERA in 92 2/3 innings against the Yankees.

From 2010-2012, the Jays had a 24-30 record against (much better) Yankees teams. That's much more representative of where the team stands compared to New York, not 3-12.

On Monday, there was a growing cry for John Gibbons to be fired. On Tuesday, Alex Anthopoulos defended his manager and identified the rotation as the biggest reason for the club's failures - the Blue Jays struggles against the Yankees this season is further proof of that.