Canada’s Olympic success can be sustained, thanks to reversing of normal trend for host countries

To put it in perspective, Canada's winter sport athletes have earned more medals at the past three Olympics did than their predecessors did at every one prior to 1998.

One, it is about the money; two, simple as this sounds it is about whether top performers can replicate their historical level of performance in a more intense environment. Two of the major reasons why Canada has done so well over the last three games — 25 medals in these Sochi 2014 games, 26 as host nation of Vancouver in 2010 and 24 in Turin in '06 — is that it has quite literally taken care of business in both those areas. There is little reason to believe it each can continue four years from now in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

A greater mind could pinpoint the sources of this country's relatively newfound motivation to mop up at the Olympics. It's doubtful anyone really wants to delve into whether it reflects Canada copying some of the traits we call out in Americans, becoming more nationalistic, nastier, willing to trade it all for just a little more.
The Canadian Olympic Committee, whose ambitions are Marcel Aubut's ambitions and vice-versa, did not create it. Nor did the minds behind Own The Podium. Ultimately, it has been good business to tap that root.

It's tough to remember, but roughly four years ago, many skeptics wondered if the athlete funding that had enabled success in Turin and Vancouver would dry up. There is a tendency where "funding and enthusiasm wane" after a country hosts. However, Canada experienced "the opposite" following Vancouver 2010. It was a perfect storm. Under Aubut's command, the COC's budget is now 70 per cent higher than it was during the Vancouver cycle, and nearly triple what it was during the economic bubble of 2005-08.

Much like Hockey Canada, the COC has done a boffo business expanding its licencing. About two-fifths of its budget trickles down to athletes. As long as people keep consuming Olympic content through approval channels, one would think the sponsors will be interested.

Canadians still watched Sochi 2014 in relatively large numbers despite the eight- to 12-hour time difference. That's good enthusiasm, hopefully not so good that it reaches the point of actually wanting to host one of these damn things. Other corners of the world have gotten wise about this, by the way.

Extending Own The Podium, additionally, was an easy call for the federal government ahead of an election in 2011. It played well in today's retail politics. Showing support for sports seems to resonate more with those suburban voters, who have been conditioned to have low expectations of their politicians, than whether a federal party leader can actually can manage an economy or protect Canada's lakes and rivers. Secondly, in general Canada has improved at transferring success at world championships to the Games. Intriguingly enough, accordng to the COC, it still hasn't met its outstanding goal for what it calls its 'conversion rate.'

By its calculation, "Canada's conversion rate in Sochi was 54 per cent compared to 59 in Vancouver." Not to get bogged down in numbers, but once upon a time the COC said 64% was a reasonable conversion rate. That came after Canada cashed in just 27% of its supposed opportunities during the 2002 Olympics, where it nevertheless collected 17 medals.

Talent shortage?

Twenty-five medals is not a proof that Canada will just be able to reload with new medal hopefuls every four years. The advantages enjoyed over the past two Winter Games are likely to abate as other nations adapt. It is also notable that two weeks ago, the House of Commons’ Heritage Committee presented a report on Sochi 2014 preparations that included testimony starting Canada lacks "a real strong pool of that next generation of athletes." There are still barriers to participation, particularly for young female athletes (yes, even with women winning more than half of Canada's medals), that ought to be tackled.

The die has been cast, though. It's safe to say that winning 20-odd medals three Games in a row only increases a sense of urgency to stay at the top. Aubut's sitdown with CBC's Scott Russell, despite the interviewer's best efforts, had an infomercial vibe as the COC head honcho said, "If we are not aggressive, we are going to be in for a big surprise." The new spin was that the Winter Games is tighter at the top of the medal tables than ever before, so more resources will be needed, please.

Canadians generally like celebrating gold medals. This country, at all strata, sustained its Vancouver success and bucked the long-term trend. The past does not mean the future, yet the elements are in place to make another big showing attainable in '18.

Neate Sager is a writer for Yahoo! Canada Sports. Follow him on Twitter @neatebuzzthenet. Please address any questions, comments or concerns to btnblog@yahoo.ca.